The One Iraq policy and Iraq election results

Kurd24

The final results of the 2018 parliamentary elections will not be known for weeks as different lists struggle to form a governing coalition. What also will not be known is the impact these elections will have on the future of Iraq. 

The Sairoon Alliance, composed of the Sadrist Movement and the Iraqi Communist party, was the surprise winner in an election that had the lowest turnout of any election held since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.  A further shock was the failures of the current Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and his immediate predecessor, Nouri al Maliki. 

The US, having misread the Iraqi electorate, finds itself in a difficult position. 

Having lost a great deal of leverage with the Shia government and squandered its relationship with the Kurdish region, it now faces the very likely potential of a hostile government in Baghdad. 

Sadr cannot form a government on his own and will turn to the other major Shia parties, almost all of which indicate they want US forces out of Iraq.  The next largest block is the al-Fatih Alliance, a group formed by members of the Hashd al-Shaabi Iranian-backed militias, then Abadi.  If you add in Maliki’s State of Law party, you have enough seats to form a government. 

Much of the work to create this Iranian controlled body is being done by Qassim Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps-Quds Force. This will allow a government controlled by Iran and formed without Sunni or Kurdish input or influence.  

While some argue Sadr is opposed to Iranian influence, his hatred of the US may overcome his distrust of Iran. Soleimani is attempting to isolate Sadr and form a government without Sairoon, but this will be difficult since the numbers required - 165 seats to form a government - will need Sadr.  

On the other side, Sadr will have a difficult time forming a government without Fatih and State of law, both of which he says he will not join.

Final results and seat allocation is weeks away, but based on the current and likely very close count, the combined Shia parties are the clear winner.  The pro-Iranian parties have a way to take control without Sadr, but it would require all current Kurdish parties less KDP. 

Sadr can form a government by joining all other parties except Fatih, Hikma or State of Law. Sadr’s road is more complicated than Soleimani’s, requiring concessions to the Kurds - likely on independence that would be against his nationalistic bent - as well as Sunni parties. 

In the end however, the new government in Baghdad will be Iranian friendly. With little or no leverage left, the US will be unable to influence the formation of a government and Soleimani will be the kingmaker, with or without Sadr, but likely with.

How will this effect Iraqi relations with the US and the West? The core policy of the US has been One Iraq. This election has shown the sectarian and ethnic divisions of Iraq and increased the fissures between Iraqis.  Iraq has divided itself and shown the fallacy of One Iraq. 

The same is seen in Syria, with the country divided and the government broken and shored up by foreign money and power. 

The question then becomes, can and should the US continue to support this policy, or should it now be obvious that the country is simply not a self-sustaining entity? 

The US, however, is continuing down this dead-end street and recent reporting indicates that US envoy Brett McGurk is attempting to form a government with Sadr, Kurdish allies, and other parties. The problem is the numbers do not support the attempt.

It is long past time that the US reassess its One Iraq policy and long past time to abandon it. 

In a 2006 Op-Ed by then-Senator Joe Biden, a three-state solution was express to solve the problem of Iraq. To continue to treat Iraq as a single sovereign nation defies history. 

A made-up country following the First World War, first as a British mandate, then a monarchy under an imported King, followed by a succession of dictators. Then in 2005 for one brief, shining moment, it was a free and independent nation under the rule of law with a working constitution that empowered all. 

Iraq has devolved back to a nation run by elites with no desire to serve the people. It is more under control of Iran than of the Iraqi people. The elections just reinforced this and the reaction of Baghdad to the Kurdish independence referendum indicated Iraq is not a single culture. 

The fact remains there are three distinct groups that occupy the land called Iraq, and all meet the criteria of separate nationalities. The Kurds especially show they are not part of anything called Iraq. They have a distinct culture and language as well as a diversity of religions.

It is time to redraw the borders to reflect the facts on the ground and to accept the judgment of the people. Iraq needs to be allowed to find its own way. The US needs to find a way to help without interfering, reassess the reality and support the people without trying to impose its will.

Paul Davis is a retired US Army military intelligence officer. He has been a consultant to the American intelligence community specializing in the Middle East with a concentration on Kurdish affairs. Currently, he is the President of the consulting firm JANUS Think in Washington DC. 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Kurdistan 24.

Editing by Nadia Riva