Azerbaijani plane crash sparks speculation of Russian involvement
The crew described an "air collision" before the plane started to swerve erratically. Originally, Russian aviation authorities alleged the collision involved a flock of birds.
Dec. 26, 2024
Erbil (Kurdistan24) – Following the crash of an Azerbaijani Airlines passenger plane on Wednesday, speculation has arisen that Russia might have accidentally shot it down mistaking it for a Ukrainian drone targeting Chechnya.
The crash killed 38, while 29 people survived, according to Kanat Bozumbayev, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister.
It was reported that the Embraer 190 aircraft, traveling from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Grozny, Chechnya, lost control at a low altitude along the Caspian Sea coast.
It eventually failed to reach the nearby Aktau Airport during an emergency landing attempt, and the plane crashed and exploded on impact.
No official statements have been issued regarding the cause of the crash.
Kazakhstan’s Emergency Situations Ministry said it had opened an investigation into the reasons of the crash. Later on Wednesday, Azerbaijan’s Prosecutor General’s Office said in a statement that it had opened a criminal investigation and sent a team of investigators to the scene. Similar criminal investigations were also opened in Russia and Kazakhstan.
Speculations of a Missile Strike
The Wall Street Journal wrote that an aviation security firm, Osprey Flight Solutions, suggested that the flight “was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defense system”, following assessments of footage of the crash, the damage to the aircraft, and recent military activity in that region.
“Video of the wreckage and the circumstances around the airspace security environment in southwest Russia indicates the possibility the aircraft was hit by some form of antiaircraft fire,” said Matt Borie, chief intelligence officer at Osprey said in an interview with Wall Street Journal.
Additionally, some Russian bloggers and aviation analysts have suggested that Moscow may have mistaken the plane for a Ukrainian drone, leading to its possible downing.
Their claims are grounded on visible holes in the aircraft's fuselage, which they attribute to fragments of an anti-aircraft missile.
The Russian security-affiliated Telegram channel "Baza" noticed, "The holes are similar to damage caused by shelling or an explosion." Similarly, the channel "Rybar," with 1.3 million subscribers, described the damage as similar to an anti-aircraft missile strike.
Strengthening this theory, reports show that the plane was en route to Grozny, a city recently targeted by Ukrainian drones. "The aircraft was heading to Grozny, where, at the time, Ukrainian drone strikes were being repelled," Rybar added.
Circumstances Leading to the Crash
The Grozny airport had been closed before the plane's arrival due to "fog," compelling the aircraft to redirect to Makhachkala, the capital of Russia's Dagestan Republic.
The crew described an "air collision" before the plane started to swerve erratically. Originally, Russian aviation authorities alleged the collision involved a flock of birds.
However, it was later found that an oxygen tank onboard the aircraft had exploded, further fueling theories that the accident might have been a confrontation with Russian air defenses.
