Maximum Pressure Meets Last-Minute Diplomacy in Oman

By Kamaran Aziz

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) – In a potential breakthrough moment for regional diplomacy, Iran has dispatched its top diplomat to the Sultanate of Oman with “full authority” to engage in indirect negotiations with the United States, signaling a renewed push to revive talks amid escalating tensions across the Middle East.

Ali Shamkhani, senior political advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and member of Iran’s Expediency Discernment Council, made the announcement via his official X account.

“Iran’s FM heads to Oman with full authority for indirect talks with the US. Tehran seeks a real, just deal—away from media show and rhetoric,” Shamkhani wrote.

He added that “key proposals are ready,” emphasizing that “if Washington shows determination for a deal, the path to agreement will be clear.”

However, significant ambiguity remains over the format and expectations of the talks. While Iran maintains the discussions will be indirect, the U.S. has described them as direct. According to U.S. President Donald Trump, speaking in a joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the meeting—set for Saturday in Muscat—marks the first high-level encounter between the two adversaries since his return to office in January.

“Saturday’s meeting is very big,” Trump declared, calling it a potential “diplomatic breakthrough.” He emphasized, “Doing a deal would be preferable to doing the obvious,” in a pointed reference to possible military action.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has insisted the negotiations will be indirect, asserting that “as long as ‘maximum pressure’ and threats exist, there is no ground for fair negotiations.” Nonetheless, there are indications that Supreme Leader Khamenei could be open to direct engagement should the talks yield constructive results.

Both sides have traded increasingly pointed statements ahead of the meeting. Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff will lead the U.S. delegation, while Araghchi will head Iran’s team. The White House has described the talks as a make-or-break moment, insisting that if Iran refuses to engage meaningfully, “there will be hell to pay.”

The negotiations come amid deep divisions over the objectives. According to The New York Times, the U.S. seeks not only to curb Iran’s nuclear program but also to dismantle its missile infrastructure and end support for regional proxy groups including Hamas and Hezbollah. Iran, meanwhile, seeks a reinstatement of the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) with guarantees that Washington won’t withdraw again.

The stakes are high. According to The Wall Street Journal, Iran’s uranium stockpile now exceeds the quantity needed to build multiple nuclear warheads. While U.S. intelligence believes Khamenei has not ordered weaponization, fears are mounting over how close Tehran is to crossing the threshold.

In response to renewed threats from Trump, senior Iranian figures have warned of retaliatory steps. Shamkhani said Tehran may expel UN nuclear inspectors or transfer enriched materials to undisclosed locations if the U.S. escalates further.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei reiterated on Friday that Iran was “giving diplomacy a genuine chance in good faith and full vigilance.” But he added, “We intend to assess the intentions and seriousness of the other side on Saturday and adjust our next moves accordingly.”

The negotiations in Oman are being closely watched not only by regional powers but also by global actors with stakes in Middle Eastern stability. Reports suggest Israel has expressed deep concern over Trump’s diplomatic opening to Tehran, warning that prolonged talks could delay necessary action.

According to a detailed report by The Wall Street Journal, the high-pressure campaign led by President Trump has left allies across the Middle East anxious that a breakdown in negotiations could ignite a broader conflict. Trump has said Iran will be in “great danger” if talks fail, and in a letter sent to Iran’s Supreme Leader in March, he reportedly set a two-month deadline for progress—though it remains unclear when that window began.

The Pentagon has expanded its regional footprint significantly, deploying a second carrier strike group, B-2 bombers, F-35s, and additional air defense systems. While U.S. officials insist the buildup is aimed at deterring Iran and suppressing Houthi attacks, analysts warn it could lead to a “use it or lose it” scenario, raising the likelihood of preemptive strikes.

Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar—home to major U.S. bases—fear being drawn into the fallout of any escalation. A senior official from the UAE told The Journal that these nations remain skeptical, still bruised from their exclusion during the 2015 JCPOA talks. Their main concern remains Iran’s ballistic missile program, which the original accord failed to address.

Israel, meanwhile, is pressuring Washington not to settle for an interim deal that halts Iran’s nuclear advances temporarily in exchange for limited sanctions relief. Former U.S. Ambassador Dan Shapiro told the Journal that Israel sees this as a missed opportunity for military action while Iranian proxies are weakened.

The Journal also noted that Iran has suffered significant setbacks, including Israeli airstrikes last year that degraded its air defenses and a regional loss of influence due to the weakening of allies like Hezbollah and the Houthis. Yet U.S. and Gulf officials caution that even a weakened Iran retains the capacity to destabilize the region.

Iranian leaders, for their part, remain wary of being drawn into negotiations that may end in renewed confrontation. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Qalibaf recently warned that if Iran is attacked, “the entire region will blow up like a spark in an ammunition dump.”

Trump has stated that he intends to visit several Gulf states in mid-May, making it unlikely that he would greenlight military action that could spiral into war before then. However, as former defense officials noted in The Wall Street Journal, the risks of a strike will rise later in the year, especially if Iran refuses to scale back its program and European signatories move to reimpose sanctions in October.

Despite continued skepticism and unresolved mistrust, the talks in Oman could shape the trajectory of U.S.-Iran relations for years to come. Whether the moment becomes a turning point or another missed opportunity remains to be seen—but for now, diplomacy has returned to center stage, if only precariously so.