Adel Baxawan to Le Monde: “Iraq Is Disintegrating”

By Kamaran Aziz

ERBIL (Kurdistan 24) – Iraq is entering an era of profound political and societal disintegration, marked by the erosion of national identity, the ascendancy of Shiite militias, and an increasingly dominant role for neighboring Iran, according to prominent Kurdish sociologist Adel Baxawan.

In a detailed interview with Le Monde, Baxawan, Director of the European Institute for Studies on the Middle East and North Africa (EISMENA) and a lecturer at Sciences Po Lyon, described Iraq as a “militia-state,” where official government structures are subordinated to paramilitary groups aligned with Iran. His latest book, The Decomposition of the Middle East, offers a comprehensive analysis of the region’s unraveling political systems.

Fallout from Assad’s Ouster Reverberates in Iraq

Baxawan began by assessing the regional impact of the ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the subsequent fall of his regime in December 2024. The event triggered alarm among Iraq’s Shiite ruling elite, who feared that regime change in Damascus could inspire a similar shift in Baghdad. “Within the government and political elites, it was full-blown panic,” he told Le Monde, describing rapid border closures and military deployments across Iraq.

While Iraq’s Sunnis viewed the Syrian developments as an opportunity for political resurgence, the Kurds acted swiftly. The French Magazine wrote that President Masoud Barzani called to congratulate Syria’s new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and urged negotiations with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), reflecting efforts to expand Kurdish influence in northeastern Syria.

Despite initial anxiety, Baxawan noted that Iraq’s Shiite leaders soon recognized the distinct dynamics of their own political context, realizing that Baghdad's regime was not immediately threatened.

A Government in Conflict with the “State”

Baxawan distinguished between Iraq’s formal government and what he termed the “state”—a structure dominated by powerful Shiite militias.

While Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani sought to normalize relations with Damascus by sending an envoy in January and meeting al-Sharaa in Doha in April, he failed to coordinate with key Iraqi institutions, triggering a domestic backlash.

Leading figures within the Shiite Coordination Framework, including Nouri al-Maliki, Moqtada al-Sadr, and Hadi al-Amiri, condemned al-Sudani’s outreach, citing an arrest warrant for al-Sharaa issued by Iraq’s Supreme Federal Court.

The Syrian president ultimately cancelled his visit to Baghdad, and the Arab League summit in May—intended to mark Iraq’s diplomatic resurgence—collapsed as a result.

“This illustrates a key point,” Baxawan stated. “The government extended the invitation, but the state imposed the veto.”

Iraq as a “Militia-State”

According to Baxawan, the Iraqi “state” is shaped and directed by Shiite paramilitary factions—principally the Popular Mobilization Forces (Hashd al-Shaabi)—who hold decisive political and military power. This system parallels Iran’s governance model, where real authority rests with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards rather than the elected president.

“No president is appointed in Iraq without the blessing of these militias,” Baxawan explained. “Governments change, but the militia-state remains intact.”

A Nation in Societal Decomposition

Baxawan warned that Iraq’s deeper crisis lies in its fragmentation of identity. The once-prevailing notion of a shared Iraqi national identity—“Iraqiness”—has eroded, replaced by sectarian affiliations. “People no longer see themselves as Iraqis, but as Shiites, Sunnis, or Kurds,” he said.

This fragmentation is reflected in Iraq’s electoral landscape. Moqtada al-Sadr’s movement, which won the most seats in the 2021 elections, received no support outside Shiite provinces. Similarly, former Speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi and Kurdish political parties secured votes exclusively within their respective Sunni and Kurdish strongholds.

“This identity division already creates territorial divisions,” Baxawan cautioned, adding that the country is now effectively ungovernable. “Nothing is possible in Iraq anymore—not even a coup. The military is irrelevant; the real power lies with the militias.”

Structural Collapse Despite Oil Wealth

Despite Iraq’s status as the world’s second-largest holder of oil reserves, state services remain dysfunctional.

Baxawan cited the $33 billion spent on electricity infrastructure between 2003 and 2023 as a stark example—despite this, Iraq still relies on Iranian electricity imports.

With the U.S. revoking energy waivers on March 8, large parts of Iraq, particularly Shiite provinces, face the prospect of severe blackouts this summer.

“When temperatures reach 50°C in Basra and there’s no air conditioning, a popular uprising becomes highly likely,” he said.

Iran’s Waning Grip and Rising Risk

Once the central hub of Iran’s regional strategy, Baghdad remains Tehran’s last reliable ally following the weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the near-destruction of Hamas in Gaza, and Assad’s ousting in Syria. Yet even in Iraq, resistance is growing.

“The Shiite social base is increasingly radicalized against Iranian domination,” Baxawan noted, recalling the 2019 protests where demonstrators chanted: “Iran out, Iraq will be free!”

According to Baxawan, Iran currently funds 80 militias in Iraq—comprising some 235,000 fighters—at a cost of nearly $3 trillion annually from the Iraqi state. However, U.S. policy under President Donald Trump, along with regional and internal pressures, may soon undermine this arrangement.

Iraqi Foreign Minister Fouad Hussein, alarmed by potential Israeli airstrikes on Iraqi territory, has reportedly appealed to Washington to prevent such escalations. For now, the U.S. is reluctant to risk destabilizing its 2,500 troops stationed in Iraq, but the geopolitical risks remain acute.

Fragile Peace on the Edge

Baxawan warned that the government’s reliance on public sector salaries—the last mechanism holding civil peace together—may soon become unsustainable.

“If oil prices drop to $40 a barrel, the government may no longer be able to pay its 6 million civil servants,” he cautioned. “That would be catastrophic.”

In closing, the Kurdish sociologist painted a grim portrait of Iraq’s future: a fractured, militia-dominated state struggling to maintain coherence, facing both internal implosion and external threats.

Whether it continues under Iran’s shadow or breaks free remains a defining question for the region.