Sudani's Survival Tested in High-Stakes Showdown with Pro-Iran Militia

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) – Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has taken the unprecedented step of dismissing two senior commanders of the powerful Iran-backed militia Kata'ib Hezbollah, igniting a high-stakes confrontation that is being widely seen as the most significant test of his government's authority and survival.

The move, which followed deadly street clashes in Baghdad, has triggered a furious backlash from the formidable armed group, escalating a war of words that now threatens to destabilize the ruling Shiite coalition and potentially plunge the country into a new phase of political turmoil, a detailed analysis by BBC Persian has outlined.

The Iraqi Prime Minister's decisive action, based on the findings of an official investigation into the violence, has drawn a firm line in the sand, directly challenging one of the most influential factions within the state-sanctioned Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).

In response, Kata'ib Hezbollah has launched a blistering campaign against Sudani, questioning his leadership, accusing him of bowing to American pressure, and issuing thinly veiled threats against his premiership. This direct clash has exposed the deep fissures within Iraq's security and political establishments, pitting the state's authority against the entrenched power of armed non-state actors.

The Spark: A Deadly Baghdad Clash

The current crisis was ignited on July 27, when deadly clashes erupted between members of Kata'ib Hezbollah and police forces in the Iraqi capital. The violence resulted in the death of two people, including a police officer, and left 12 others injured.

According to the BBC Persian analysis, Prime Minister Sudani acted swiftly, ordering an immediate investigation into the incident.

Hours later, the military's "Security Media Cell" announced a significant development: the arrest of 14 suspects affiliated with Kata'ib Hezbollah, who were then referred to the judiciary. Sudani's media office later released a statement clarifying the basis for his subsequent actions, announcing that an official investigation had concluded that the Kata'ib Hezbollah brigades involved had moved without authorization and opened fire on police forces.

This official narrative was seemingly bolstered by a statement from the broader Popular Mobilization Forces, which declared that it would "not tolerate any insubordination or violation of established security regulations in any way." However, this institutional stance did little to quell the fury of the specific faction at the center of the storm.

A War of Narratives: Denial and Defiance

Kata'ib Hezbollah's response was swift, total, and defiant. The group categorically denied any involvement in the clashes, instead framing the incident as part of a sophisticated conspiracy to undermine it.

In a statement released on July 28, the militia announced, "We had no role in this conflict and we warn that this escalation serves the enemies of Iraq and stems from sinister plots aimed at sowing discord among national ranks and forcing state institutions to fight one another."

The group pointed the finger at external enemies, blaming "foreign forces" and what it termed the "Embassy of Evil"—a clear and common pejorative reference to the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad—for instigating the violence.

When the Prime Minister acted on the investigation's findings and dismissed the commanders, Kata'ib Hezbollah escalated its rhetoric dramatically. On August 10, the group publicly rejected the official conclusions, claiming the investigation was marred by "distortion and blatant abuse of power."

The analysis by BBC Persian notes that the group alleged the entire process was aimed at "targeting Kata'ib Hezbollah and the leaders of the PMF," in a manner that "only serves to please the United States and its allies in the region."

In a move that directly challenged the executive branch's authority, the group called on the Iraqi judiciary to "intervene and reveal the truth of the official investigation findings before they can be tampered with."

From Rhetoric to Threats: The Militia’s Escalation

Failing to secure the release of its detained members, Kata'ib Hezbollah appeared to shift its strategy toward a direct political and personal assault on the Prime Minister.

The BBC writes that on August 4, the group issued a cutting public assessment of Sudani, declaring him "a successful manager, but he has never been and will never be a successful leader." The militia then attempted to isolate Sudani within his own political base, appealing directly to the leaders of the "Coordination Framework"—the ruling Shiite coalition that brought Sudani to power—to block what it called the prime minister's "unbalanced" decisions.

The rhetoric took a more ominous turn on August 11. As per the analysis by the BBC, in a statement laden with menace, Kata'ib Hezbollah called for "taking the necessary decisions to preserve Iraq and its holy sites until the end of Sudani's premiership." This was widely interpreted not as a call for political patience, but as a veiled threat against the continuity of his government.

The American Factor and an Uncertain Future

The BBC Persian analysis emphasizes that this confrontation is not merely about a single street clash but is intertwined with the much larger and deeply contentious issue of the U.S. military presence in Iraq. The withdrawal of American forces has become a primary point of friction between Sudani and the powerful pro-Iran militias.

Abu Ali al-Askari, a senior official in Kata'ib Hezbollah, issued a stark warning on July 23, stating that if U.S. forces do not withdraw according to the agreed-upon schedule, "Kata'ib Hezbollah will take a different stance." He stressed that "Sudani must adhere to our agreement and expel American forces from the country." This refers to the timeline agreed upon in September 2024, which projects a full withdrawal by September 2026.

As tensions mount, analysts cited in the BBC Persian report are exploring several possible scenarios, many of them grim.

Some predict that armed groups "may take to the streets against Sudani," drawing a direct parallel to the actions taken in 2022 against then-Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi when he attempted to rein in their power. That period saw Kata'ib Hezbollah threaten to arrest Kadhimi, and the Nujaba Movement labeled him a "traitor." The confrontation culminated in a siege of Kadhimi's residence in the Green Zone and a brazen assassination attempt using drones and Katyusha rockets.

According to the BBC report, a senior member of the State of Law Coalition, led by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, has warned of a darker possibility: that "foreign powers are trying to push the Iraqi government into a confrontation with the militias" to "ignite tension among Shiite groups." He warned that if such an internal Shiite conflict erupts, "the country will be plunged into chaos, and we might form an emergency government"—a statement interpreted as a clear threat that political and militia leaders could move to oust Sudani.

This internal pressure cooker could also lead to the collapse or reorganization of the Coordination Framework itself. However, the analysis also points to a potential silver lining for the Prime Minister.

Some observers believe the escalating tensions might inadvertently push the influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who has repeatedly called for the disarmament of all militias, to support Sudani's bloc in the next parliamentary elections.

Such a political realignment, the analysis concludes, could "help Sudani defeat the ruling bloc and change the political composition of the next parliament."