The Ukraine War: Visiting Poland, Joe Biden explains what is at stake

One cannot overstate the significance of the Ukraine conflict for Biden. It has broad ramifications, including for the Middle East, particularly for Iran and Turkey.
President Joe Biden to arrives to deliver a speech marking the one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Tuesday, Feb. 21, 2023, at the Royal Castle Gardens in Warsaw (Photo: AP Photo/Evan Vucci).
President Joe Biden to arrives to deliver a speech marking the one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Tuesday, Feb. 21, 2023, at the Royal Castle Gardens in Warsaw (Photo: AP Photo/Evan Vucci).

WASHINGTON DC, United States (Kurdistan 24) – On Tuesday, US President Joe Biden spoke in Poland, after a surprise visit to Ukraine’s capital, Kiev, on Monday.

Against a colorful and imposing backdrop at Warsaw’s Royal Castle Gardens and speaking before hundreds of people shortly before the first anniversary of Russia’s unprovoked assault on Ukraine, Biden laid out what he saw as the issues at stake in that conflict, while he vowed continued US support to Kiev.

Biden received a warm welcome in Poland, which borders Ukraine. The Polish people and government strongly favor Western support for Ukraine. They fear that if Russia succeeds in conquering that country, they will be next.

One cannot overstate the significance of the conflict that has broad ramifications, including the Middle East. The conflict between the US and Russia, as world powers, is international in scope. Consequently, the role of smaller and medium-sized powers—like Iran and Turkey—is important, as they can help tip the balance one way or another.

Biden’s View of the Ukraine Conflict—Shaped by WWII

For the 80-year-old Biden, born during World War II, the current conflict carries echoes of that war. The Western countries mishandled the start of that war, appeasing the German leader Adolph Hitler in the mistaken belief that a friendly posture would avert war.

It proved quite wrong. Hitler’s appetite for violence only grew, and a mind-boggling number of people died in the conflict that followed: between 35 and 60 million people.

That is what Biden wants to avoid. He does not want to go down in history as another Neville Chamberlain—the British Prime Minister—who proclaimed that he had achieved “peace in our time,” by obliging the country of Czechoslovakia to cede half its territory to Hitler.

On Tuesday, Biden spoke in the same setting as he had the year before, a month after Russia’s war in Ukraine had begun. In his opening remarks, Biden described the significance of that conflict.

“It was nearly one year ago I spoke at the Royal Castle here in Warsaw, just weeks after Vladimir Putin had unleashed his murderous assault on Ukraine,” Biden stated.

“The largest land war in Europe since World War II had begun, and the principles that had been the cornerstone of peace, prosperity and stability on this planet for more than 75 years were at risk of being shattered,” he continued.

For the entirety of Biden’s adult life, certain principles limited conflict and brought peace and prosperity—but Putin had destroyed them, with consequences that, even now, remain to be seen.

Biden’s comment also reflected that he is the opposite of Neville Chamberlain and recognizes Chamberlain’s mistake. “Appetites of the autocrat cannot be appeased,” Biden affirmed. “They must be opposed.”

Implications for the Middle East: Iran

When the Biden administration took office in January 2021, no significant group in the US, or in the West more generally, saw any prospect that Putin would overturn the post-World War II order by an unprovoked aggression against Ukraine.

Thus, some priorities first set by the Biden administration have been undone by Russia’s war against Ukraine. One involves Iran. Initially, the Biden administration courted Iran to renew the 2015 Iranian nuclear accord, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA.)

But now the US, along with its European partners, seeks to isolate and punish Iran. Indeed, Lithuanian Foreign Minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, speaking to Britain’s Sky News on Wednesday, explained that it was Iran’s provision of drones to Russia that turned the European Union against Tehran.

During the Biden administration’s initial courtship of Iran, which lasted for over a year and a half, it overlooked, or tended to downplay, other aspects of Iran’s malicious activity. It did not want to jeopardize the JCPOA negotiations by raising issues it considered to be of secondary importance.

But three developments changed that. One was Iran’s provision of explosive drones to Russia, which has used them to devastate Ukraine. Another was the country-wide protests that broke out after the Sept. 16 death of the young Kurdish woman, Jina (Mahsa) Amini, while in the custody of Tehran’s so-called morality police, for not properly wearing her hijab. And the third factor was the failure of the JCPOA talks themselves. When it appeared that an agreement was at hand, Iran regularly raised new conditions.

The Biden administration eventually changed course and dropped its efforts to renew the nuclear deal. Most authoritatively, Biden, himself, affirmed in November that the JCPOA was “dead.”

Read More: Joe Biden: Iranian nuclear deal is “dead”

At the same time, the US has taken other measures to toughen its position toward Iran. They include tightening its review of the Iraqi banking system to prevent Iran from exploiting that system to evade sanctions.

Initially, such measures caused a significant drop in the value of the Iraqi dinar, and Iraq’s Foreign Minister recently visited Washington in a bid to stabilize the currency.

Implications for the Middle East: Turkey

For Turkey, the consequence of the Ukraine war has been the opposite of what Iran has experienced. In part, because of geography, in part, because it is a NATO member, Turkey is playing a central role and has succeeded in maintaining cordial relations with both the US and Russia.

Turkey controls the Dardanelles and Bosporus, which command entry into the Black Sea. Ankara had an important role in negotiating the understanding between Russia and Ukraine that has allowed for the export of Ukrainian grain.

At the same time, as a NATO member, Turkey can block the accession of new members, like Sweden and Finland, which, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, now seek to join the alliance.

Before the devastating earthquakes struck Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appeared to be exploiting that position to maximum advantage, aimed at the upcoming elections, scheduled for May.

Erdogan’s ire was directed at Sweden. He first complained that it was soft on the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party) and then that it had allowed the burning of the Koran.

Indeed, Erdogan seemed to be positioning himself as a defender of Islam against the infidel west, when the earthquakes struck on Feb. 6, upending almost everything.

The devastating quakes have been described as the worst natural disaster in the history of the Turkish Republic, and they produced some significant changes.

The notion that Ankara was standing up for Islam, against an infidel West, was dropped—and the opposite embraced. To reassure a frightened public, Ankara announced that the US and other western powers were supporting Turkey, providing valuable assistance to help deal with the catastrophe.

Although Sweden has provided $3 million in aid to deal with the earthquake, as well as trained personnel, Ankara has yet to say it will approve Sweden’s NATO members.