Sadrist assault strengthens US support for dividing Iraq

WASHINGTN, United States (Kurdistan24) - On Thursday, the Washington Post, one of America’s most influential newspapers, carried an important editorial discussing the implications and consequences of the takeover of Iraq’s parliament—a mob action instigated by the erratic and mercurial Shiite cleric, Muqtada al Sadr.

Entitled “The White House’s Iraq Delusion,” the Post argued that US policy toward Baghdad is grievously flawed, in significant part because the Obama administration persists in dealing with Iraq as it is currently structured. A crucial error is the administration’s failure to accept that “Iraq cannot survive under its present system of governance, which centralizes power in Baghdad.”

Those are strong words from such a pillar of the US establishment as the Washington Post. They echo the sentiment of Kurdish leaders, who have long argued that Iraq is a failed state and its government is dysfunctional.

As the Post editorial suggests, the Kurdish position has been given a big boost after thousands of Iraqis broke into the Green Zone last weekend and then stormed the Iraqi parliament—while it was in session, even beating up some MPs, including a Kurdish legislator.

Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi now calls on them to return. But is it any surprise that they baulk at doing so? (Arab MPs are also resisting a return to parliament without guarantees that they will not be attacked again.)

The Sadrist protest underscored the limits of US influence in Baghdad. Last Thursday, Vice President Joe Biden flew to Iraq, his first trip there since the withdrawal of US forces in 2011. He aimed to bolster support for Abadi, while urging Iraqi officials to set aside their differences and focus on the fight against the Islamic State (IS).

The US has no relationship with Sadr, so Biden’s visit had little impact on him. After the protest, Sadr flew to Tehran—and has not been heard from since. Lt. General Michael Barbero (US Army, Retired) complained to Kurdistan24 that, “Tehran has more influence on Baghdad than Washington does.”

Ostensibly, Sadr is protesting the chronic corruption of the Iraqi central government and pressing for parliamentary approval of a slate of reform, technocratic ministers.

However, at its core, this is a power struggle. As Omar al-Nidawi, an Iraqi-born analyst who now works for Zalmay Khalizad, former US ambassador to Iraq and Afghanistan, explains, the demonstrations have put Sadr in the position of “king-maker.”

The Sadr-inspired siege shows that ultimate authority does not lie with Iraq’s elected officials—but with Sadr or any other figure who can raise a big mob.

Ammar al-Hakim, head of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, has warned, “We will not allow” protestors “to hijack” the parliament. Former U.S. ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford, cautions that the attack on parliament has raised the danger of civil war among Iraq’s Shiites.

Even without such a dire outcome, little good is likely to come from the Sadrist protest. Most probably, it will not produce reform. More likely, it will further undermine Iraq’s already weak and ineffectual government. Some protesting factions have called for removing Abadi as prime minister, and his al-Dawa party is reportedly discussing just that.

Given the conflict with IS, a political vacuum is quite dangerous. When the government feels threatened, it pulls troops from the front against IS back to Baghdad.

IS is already exploiting the political turmoil. In Baghdad, IS attacks are increasing: there were four bombs on Wednesday alone. Last Sunday, a rare twin car-bombing in the southern city of Samawa killed 38 people.
For some time, thoughtful Americans have said that a radical decentralization, if not the outright independence, of Iraq’s component populations is preferable to the current system.

Joe Biden was one of the first to suggest this. As a senator, he argued in the New York Times for Iraq’s radical decentralization, with far-reaching autonomous Kurdish, Sunni, and Shiite regions.

Other senior US figures have also begun calling for Iraq’s partition. They include Gen. Michael Hayden, former head of the CIA, who advised Kurdistan24 that the old order in the Middle East had collapsed. The “Kurdistan Region has witnessed significant developments during the last decade and has a reliable fighting force. Therefore, it is vital for the US to strengthen ties with Kurdistan Region,” Hayden said.

The Obama administration does not seem prepared yet to abandon its “one Iraq” policy, and it may never do so. However, it has only eight months left in office.

The Sadrist assault on parliament has left others in the US political establishment much more open to the argument that Iraq has failed as a state and a radical restructuring is required. And it is quite possible that the next US president will accept that view.

Laurie Ann Mylroie, Ph.D., taught at Harvard University and the US Naval War College. Most recently, she served as a cultural advisor to the US military in Afghanistan.

Editing by Delovan Barwari