Middle East Oil Exports Exceed Pre-Iran War Levels

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) - Middle East oil exports excluding Iran have climbed above their pre-war levels for the first time since the U.S.-Israeli offensive against Iran began in late February, as Gulf producers increasingly rely on pipelines and alternative shipping routes to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz.

Data from maritime tracking firm Kpler, cited by Agence France-Presse, showed that the weekly average of regional oil shipments rose for several days above the pre-conflict level of roughly 18 million barrels per day.

Crude exports alone returned to pre-war levels in September, with at least 16.5 million barrels per day leaving the region excluding Iran, according to Kpler.

The recovery comes despite continued attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's effort to restrict passage through the strategic waterway.

Kpler said around 40 percent of oil exports now bypass Hormuz, while much of the crude that still crosses the strait is transferred between tankers offshore.

A large share of the diverted supply is moving through pipelines operated by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

The shift has allowed exporters to restore volumes even as conditions in and around Hormuz remain far from normal.

Before the conflict, approximately one-fifth of global petroleum supplies passed through the strait.

Iran continues to claim control over the passage, and vessels traveling without its authorization remain at risk of attack. However, more ships have been able to exit the Gulf, while bypass routes are operating at high capacity.

Saudi Arabia has benefited in particular from the return of its East-West pipeline, which connects the kingdom's main oil-producing areas in the east with the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

The pipeline provides Saudi crude with a route to international markets that does not require passage through Hormuz.

Kpler analyst Amena Bakr said the pipeline resumed operations on Sept. 22 after being shut down on Sept. 11 following strikes launched from Iraq.

The UAE also has an alternative export route through its pipeline connecting Abu Dhabi's oil fields with Fujairah, located on the Gulf of Oman outside the Strait of Hormuz.

Those routes have become increasingly important as producers seek to maintain exports while reducing exposure to attacks and restrictions in the strait.

The recovery in shipments has begun to weigh on oil prices.

Brent crude for December delivery fell 0.79 percent to $101.44 per barrel in early trading Monday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate for November delivery declined 1.20 percent to $90.02.

Separate market reporting also pointed to falling prices as higher Middle East exports combined with a decision by Group of Seven countries to release fuel from emergency reserves.

The G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil over four months, increasing available supply at a time when global markets have been disrupted by the Iran war and restrictions on other major sources of refined fuel.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sunday that rising supplies from the Gulf and the coordinated G7 release should help push gasoline and diesel prices lower.

Speaking to CBS News, Wright said energy flows through and around Hormuz had been increasing and argued that additional fuel entering the market should continue easing prices.

He nevertheless acknowledged that the conflict still carries considerable uncertainty, saying there are “no guarantees” when military tensions remain active.

That caution is also reflected in the Kpler figures.

The increase in export volumes does not mean regional oil transportation has returned to its pre-war structure.

Shipping costs remain higher, exporters are using less efficient routes, and alternative pipelines are being pushed toward their maximum capacity.

Saudi Arabia's ability to move crude westward and the UAE's access to Fujairah have reduced some of the pressure on Hormuz, but the strait remains a central artery for regional energy exports.

Iran itself is also excluded from the broader rebound.

AFP reported that Tehran remains deprived of a significant portion of its own oil exports because of a U.S. counterblockade targeting Iranian ports.

The result is an increasingly uneven regional energy picture: Gulf producers outside Iran are restoring export volumes through a mixture of pipelines, tanker transfers and alternative sea routes, while Iran remains heavily constrained.

Market conditions therefore look stronger than they did during the early months of the conflict, but the underlying risks have not disappeared.

Continued attacks on vessels or oil infrastructure could again restrict supplies, while bypass routes have limited spare capacity if disruptions intensify.

For now, however, Kpler's data shows that the region's oil exporters have managed to restore volumes to, and for several days above, levels recorded before the war.

That recovery is helping ease pressure on global oil prices, even as the conflict surrounding Hormuz continues to make the route more costly, more complicated and considerably less predictable.