Iceland's 'No' Camp Heads for Victory in EU Referendum
Iceland's "No" camp leads with 52.5% in a referendum on restarting EU membership talks, making a rejection increasingly likely as counting nears completion.
ERBIL (Kurdistan24) - Iceland appeared set to reject a return to European Union membership negotiations early Sunday, with the "No" camp holding a clear lead as counting neared completion in a referendum closely watched in Brussels.
Agence France-Presse journalist Pierre-Henry Deshayes reported from Reykjavik that opponents of resuming EU accession talks had secured 52.5% of the vote, compared with 47.5% for the "Yes" camp, with only a small number of ballots left to count in one of the country's six electoral districts.
That remaining district was itself leaning toward "No," making a reversal increasingly unlikely.
Icelandic public broadcaster RUV said the emerging result amounted to a rejection of renewed accession negotiations.
The referendum is formally non-binding, but Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir's government had pledged to respect the outcome.
The government is expected to hold a press conference Sunday afternoon to outline its next steps.
EU question likely shelved
The apparent result would represent a significant setback for supporters of deeper Icelandic integration with the European Union and would likely remove EU membership from the country's political agenda until at least 2028.
Frostadottir, a Social Democrat who openly supported restarting talks, had said before the vote that if Icelanders rejected the proposal, her government would not bring the membership question back during its current term.
She nevertheless sought to lower the political temperature after voting Saturday, saying Iceland would remain in a strong position regardless of the result.
The governing coalition includes three parties with differing positions on EU membership, and political analysts cited by AFP did not expect the government to collapse in the event of a "No" victory.
A rejection could, however, weaken Frostadottir politically after she invested significant political capital in reopening the debate.
Long-running membership question
Iceland first applied to join the European Union after the 2009 financial crisis severely damaged its banking system and economy.
Negotiations were later suspended in 2013 after a eurosceptic government took office.
The issue returned to prominence amid wider geopolitical uncertainty, including Russia's war in Ukraine and renewed debate over security in the Arctic.
Iceland, with a population of just under 400,000, already maintains extensive links with the EU through membership in the European Economic Area and participation in the Schengen free-movement zone.
Those arrangements will remain unchanged regardless of the referendum outcome.
The vote therefore concerned whether Iceland should resume full membership negotiations, rather than whether it should loosen its existing ties with Europe.
Fisheries remained central
Among the most difficult issues in the campaign was control over Iceland's fishing industry, a major pillar of the country's economy and an important element of national identity.
The sector has strongly opposed EU membership, with AFP reporting that about 90% of Icelandic fisheries companies were against accession.
Reykjavik has long sought to preserve exclusive control over its fisheries, while EU membership would require negotiations over how Iceland's fishing resources fit into the bloc's common rules.
European officials had signaled flexibility.
EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said Iceland's particular circumstances in fisheries and agriculture would have to be taken into account and suggested that creative arrangements could be found.
An EU source also told AFP that Brussels was unlikely to allow fisheries alone to block a possible accession agreement.
Had the "Yes" camp won, Iceland would have restarted negotiations with Brussels, but any eventual membership agreement would still have required approval in a second referendum.
Strategic setback for Brussels
The apparent "No" victory would also disappoint Brussels, which saw Iceland as an attractive prospective member: wealthy, politically stable and already deeply integrated with European institutions.
Membership would have expanded the EU's footprint in the strategically important Arctic region at a time of rising geopolitical competition.
Brussels had also hoped that Icelandic accession could provide a relatively straightforward example of successful enlargement while the bloc considers applications from poorer candidate countries such as Montenegro.
There was also speculation that Iceland joining could influence debate in neighboring Norway, another wealthy European state that remains outside the EU.
For now, however, Icelanders appear to have chosen continuity over renewed accession talks.
Unless the final ballots produce an unexpected reversal, the country will retain its close economic and political relationship with the European Union while keeping full membership negotiations frozen, and likely keeping one of Iceland's most divisive political questions off the table for the remainder of Frostadottir's term.