WSJ: US Estimates Iran Has Up To 2,500 Missiles
The low-confidence estimate contrasts with US statements that Iran’s military was destroyed, and has figured in internal talks on resuming strikes
ERBIL (Kurdistan 24) - The US intelligence community assesses that Iran has between 1,500 and 2,500 missiles, which would leave Tehran with a significant capacity to strike US and allied targets if all-out war resumes, US officials told The Wall Street Journal.
The officials described it as a low-confidence assessment because it is hard to track exactly how many missiles Iran has ready to launch or in storage, but said it is clear Iran kept a formidable stockpile.
The officials said US and Israeli strikes damaged Iran’s missile production facilities, but Iran has continued to rebuild its arsenal, more slowly than before the war and mostly from stockpiled components.
Iran also has many drones and short-range missiles. The report said the rebuilding runs against statements by administration officials, including President Donald Trump, that Iran’s military was decimated, and has informed internal discussions on whether to relaunch strikes alongside Israel.
Israeli military officials also estimate that Iran has more than 1,500 ballistic missiles, though regional estimates vary. A former Pentagon official, Simone Ledeen, said even the low figure would mean Iran has replaced more than half of its prewar stockpile, and that Iran fully rebuilt its arsenal between the 12-day war in June 2025 and the start of this war in February.
The report said Iran has used missiles, drones and improved tactics to keep damaging US installations, radars and early-warning systems in the region, so many US assets have been moved to Israel, which officials consider safer. Iran has also improved its targeting, including with help from allies such as Russia.
The Wall Street Journal reported in April that Iran kept thousands of short- and medium-range missiles in underground sites, and satellite images later showed it digging out some of the entrances that strikes had collapsed, and in September that it resumed ballistic missile production from finished components. A White House official said the operation, which the US calls Operation Epic Fury, left Iranian forces helpless and the economic campaign has made the government weaker than ever.
The estimate comes days after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Tuesday that Iran’s defense industrial base is “gone” and more than 80 percent of its nuclear industrial base was destroyed, and Iran’s Defense Ministry rejected his figures on Wednesday, saying its stockpile far exceeds them.
Trump said on Wednesday that the US won but needs a “total victory, not a 93% victory,” and wrote on Thursday that the US does not need a deal with Iran.
According to the report, Trump has chosen to keep pressure through the blockade and sanctions for now and not order large-scale strikes. US Gulf allies have told the administration they do not want a return to war because Iran could target them, while Israel’s caretaker prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is pushing for renewed operations, and Mossad Director Roman Gofman was in Washington on Friday for talks on Iran, the report said.