Turkey's Energy Landscape Transformed by Domestic Oil and Gas Discoveries

By Dler Mohammed

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) — A recent report by Robin M. Mills, Chief Executive of Qamar Energy, published in The National, highlights a pivotal shift in Turkey’s energy fortunes driven by major domestic oil and gas discoveries. Once reliant on imports and plagued by strategic vulnerabilities, Turkey is now experiencing an energy renaissance with significant geopolitical and economic implications.

Two decades ago, Turkey’s southeastern town of Kahta offered only glimpses of oil activity, marked by modest production and temporary booms. Today, however, the scale and impact of new discoveries—particularly in Şırnak’s Gabar mountains and the Black Sea—signal a dramatic change in trajectory for the energy-hungry nation.

Mills explains that despite being situated near hydrocarbon-rich neighbors like Iran and Iraq, Turkey has long suffered from a lack of substantial domestic oil and gas resources. Historically, it relied on heavy imports, making it the fourth-largest gas consumer and sixth-largest oil consumer in Europe. But this dependency came with strategic downsides: political tensions shut down its pipeline link to Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, while over 60 percent of its oil imports now come from Russia—a source unaffected by EU sanctions but fraught with geopolitical complications.

Turkey has responded by boosting renewable energy capacity and building its first nuclear power plant through a delayed project led by Russia’s Rosatom. Yet, the real breakthrough came with the discovery of 150 million barrels of light crude in Şırnak, described by Mills as “a whale for Turkey.” This was followed by several additional finds in the region, more than doubling Turkey’s oil output from 60,000 barrels per day to over 130,000.

Adding further promise, the U.S. energy giant Continental Resources recently signed a deal with Turkish Petroleum (TPAO) to explore shale oil in the Diyarbakır Basin, which Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar claims could hold up to 6.1 billion barrels in reserves. The recent decision by the Kurdish militant group PKK to disband is expected to ease operations in the area.

Even more transformative is Turkey’s progress in natural gas. Mills details the discovery of the Sakarya field in the western Black Sea in 2020, with reserves now estimated at 25 trillion cubic feet. A more recent find at the Goktepe-3 well added another 2.6 trillion cubic feet. Though the area presents technical challenges—deep, cold, and low-oxygen waters—production is already ramping up and projected to reach 14 billion cubic meters annually by 2028. This could cover nearly 30 percent of Turkey’s domestic gas needs by 2030.

These domestic successes have the potential to reshape Turkey’s energy balance sheet. In 2022, Turkey spent $97 billion on energy imports—double its current account deficit. Mills underscores that if Turkey didn’t import oil and gas, it would likely have a positive trade balance, easing inflation and supporting the weakening lira. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, aware of the political stakes, sees domestic energy production as vital for economic stability and voter support.

Turkey’s energy strategy also extends beyond its borders. TPAO has drilled in contested Mediterranean waters, explored in Libya and Somalia, and is participating in a Qatari-led $7 billion deal to supply electricity to Syria. Under the agreement, Turkey will initially send 2 billion cubic meters of gas annually, positioning itself as a crucial player in Syria’s post-conflict reconstruction.

As Mills concludes in his National report, the unassuming oil fields around Kahta foreshadowed a broader shift. Turkey’s new energy arsenal—including domestic oil, Black Sea gas, renewables, and nuclear—represents a powerful geopolitical and economic tool. While it may never match the output of Saudi Arabia or Iran, Turkey’s strategic role as a bridge between continents now rests on firmer, energy-rich foundations.