Israeli Strike in Qatar Raises Fears in Türkiye of Becoming Next Target

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) — An Israeli strike targeting a meeting of Hamas officials in Qatar has heightened anxieties in Türkiye that it could become Israel’s next target, according to the Associated Press (AP).

Turkish Defense Ministry spokesman Rear Adm. Zeki Akturk warned in Ankara on Thursday that Israel risked “further expanding its reckless attacks, as it did in Qatar, and dragging the entire region, including its own country, into disaster.”

Relations between Israel and Türkiye, once close regional partners, have been strained since the late 2000s and reached their lowest point amid the Gaza war that erupted after the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.

The rivalry has been further fueled by competing interests in Syria following the collapse of Bashar Assad’s government last year.

Erdogan’s Strong Rhetoric

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a longstanding supporter of the Palestinian cause, has been one of Israel’s fiercest critics. Since the beginning of the Gaza war, he has repeatedly accused Israel of committing genocide and likened Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Adolf Hitler.

Hamas leaders frequently visit Türkiye, with some residing in the country. Israel has accused Türkiye of allowing Hamas to plan attacks, recruit, and raise funds from its territory, AP reported.

Erdogan maintains close ties with Qatar and is scheduled to travel there this weekend for a summit of Arab and Muslim leaders. Military experts note that Ankara views Israel’s ability to conduct strikes with impunity in multiple countries — including Iran, Syria, Yemen, and now Qatar — as deeply troubling.

“Israel’s ability to conduct strikes with seeming impunity, often bypassing regional air defenses and international norms, sets a precedent that deeply worries Ankara,” Serhat Suha Cubukcuoglu, director of the Türkiye program at Trends Research and Advisory, told AP.

Türkiye’s Military Strength and Concerns

By striking Qatar, a close U.S. ally, Israel crossed what many viewed as an unthinkable line. Ankara fears that Hamas’s presence in Türkiye could make it a target as well.

Unlike Qatar, Türkiye’s NATO membership provides it with added protection, and its military ranks second only to the United States within the alliance.

Türkiye has also fast-tracked defense projects such as the KAAN fifth-generation fighter jet, while recently inaugurating its “Steel Dome” air defense system. Still, experts warn that Israel could seek alternative means of striking Hamas targets in Türkiye.

“An Israeli airstrike on NATO territory would be extremely unlikely, but small-scale bomb or gun attacks by Israeli agents in Türkiye could be a distinct possibility,” Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the German Marshall Fund’s Ankara office, told AP.

Flashpoints in Syria and Beyond

Observers caution that the greater danger may lie in Syria, where Türkiye and Israel are increasingly at odds.

“To think that targeting Turkish troops or Turkish allies or proxies in Syria would be to go too far is wishful thinking,” Unluhisarcikli said.

Following Assad’s ouster in December, Türkiye backed the interim Syrian government and expanded its influence, while Israel moved aggressively against Syrian military positions and seized control of a U.N.-patrolled buffer zone.

Tensions could also spread into the eastern Mediterranean, where Israel has cultivated closer ties with Greece and Greek Cypriots in opposition to Türkiye’s presence in northern Cyprus.

Türkiye’s Balancing Act

Despite rising tensions, Türkiye is combining deterrence with diplomacy. Ankara and Israeli officials met in April to discuss a de-escalation mechanism in Syria after Israeli strikes hit a base that Türkiye was reportedly planning to use.

Last month, Ankara signed an agreement to provide military training and advice to Syria’s armed forces. Erdogan is also expected to lean on Washington to contain Israel’s actions, although AP notes that U.S. backing has not always prevented Israeli strikes — as the Qatar attack demonstrated.

“The Qatar attack showed there was no limit to what the Israeli government can do,” Unluhisarcikli said.