After Sinwar’s Death, Israel Sees Former Prisoner Poised to Lead Hamas

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) – In the wake of a historic ceasefire that has formally ended the devastating Gaza war and following the systematic elimination of its top command, the Hamas movement is confronting a profound leadership vacuum, prompting intense speculation over who will step in to fill the void left by its notorious late leader, Yahya Sinwar.

A new report in the Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom has cast a spotlight on Tawfiq Abu Naim, a 63-year-old former long-term prisoner, as a prominent candidate to assume a leading role in the post-war Gaza Strip, a territory now grappling with immense destruction and an uncertain political future.

The analysis comes as Hamas reportedly laments a missed opportunity in recent prisoner exchange negotiations, believing that four other high-profile figures, had they been released, could have easily replaced Sinwar, underscoring the severity of the crisis at the top of the militant organization.

The potential ascent of Tawfiq Abu Naim is being examined in the context of a radically altered landscape.

The Gaza war was officially brought to a halt on Monday, Oct. 13, 2025, at a major summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, where United States President Donald Trump signed the comprehensive ceasefire agreement.

US President Donald Trump hailed a "tremendous day for the Middle East" at the peace summit, attended by leaders from dozens of countries. "At long last, we have peace in the Middle East." 

The agreement, described by the U.S. President as "very comprehensive," mandates a first-stage withdrawal of Israeli forces from a part of the Gaza Strip, the release of all Israeli hostages, and the freeing of more than 1,700 Palestinian prisoners. This new political reality has made the question of Hamas's future leadership not merely an internal matter for the group but a central issue for the entire region as it moves into the post-conflict era.

"A complete assessment has been made that Abu Naim, like other senior figures, will lead Hamas, because there is a wider gap at the top of the leadership and an economic crisis in the movement."

According to the Israel Hayom report, Abu Naim is a figure with deep roots in both the militant and administrative wings of Hamas.

Born in the Bureij refugee camp, he was among the hundreds of prisoners released in 2011 in exchange for the captive Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. Prior to his release, he had been serving a life sentence handed down in 1989.

During his decades in an Israeli prison, he became fluent in Hebrew. After returning to Gaza, Abu Naim, who holds a bachelor's degree and a doctorate in Islamic Sharia from the Islamic University in Gaza City, took on several key administrative positions within the Hamas government, notably overseeing the affairs of families of killed militants and Hamas prisoners.

The Israeli newspaper suggests that a complete assessment has been made that figures like Abu Naim will be essential in leading Hamas, particularly given the "wider gap at the top of the leadership and an economic crisis in the movement."

This leadership gap is not the result of a single event but the culmination of a relentless and successful Israeli campaign to decapitate Hamas's command structure. The most significant blow was the killing of Yahya Sinwar, the powerful and feared leader of Hamas in Gaza, who was killed by Israeli forces in what was described as a chance front-line encounter in October 2024.

Hamas confirmed his death on October 18, 2024, with his Qatar-based deputy, Khalil al-Hayya, stating that Sinwar died "confronting the occupation army until the last moment of his life."

The Israeli military circulated a dramatic video purportedly showing Sinwar’s final moments, where a badly wounded man, covered in dust in a severely damaged building, flings a stick at an approaching drone. 

For Israel, killing Sinwar was a top military priority, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a speech announcing the killing, declared that "our war is not yet ended," though his death was seen by many, including the families of Israeli hostages, as a potential turning point to end the conflict.

Sinwar’s death was part of a much broader and systematic dismantling of the Hamas leadership. In a speech before the Knesset in May 2025, Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed the death of Mohammed Sinwar, Yahya's younger brother and a high-ranking commander who had reportedly risen to greater prominence after his brother's death.

His elimination, linked by Israeli media to a May 13 airstrike on a Hamas command center allegedly beneath the European Hospital in Khan Younis, marked a further consolidation of Israel's strategic gains.

Netanyahu’s list of eliminated leaders also included the group’s overall chief, Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in Tehran in July 2024, and the enigmatic head of its armed wing, the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, Mohammed Deif.

The Israeli military confirmed on August 1, 2024, that Deif, one of Israel's most wanted men for nearly three decades, had been killed in a strike in Khan Yunis on July 13, 2024. The military explicitly identified Deif as the man who "initiated, planned, and executed the October 7th massacre."

The brutal legacy of that massacre, masterminded by Yahya Sinwar, provides the grim context for Israel's determined pursuit of the Hamas leadership.

A chilling six-page handwritten memo, believed by Israeli intelligence to be authored by Sinwar and discovered in his brother Muhammed's underground complex, laid bare the pre-meditated plan to inflict maximum civilian casualties.

The document, detailed in a report by The New York Times, called for fighters to target civilian communities, set entire neighborhoods on fire, and broadcast the acts of violence to sow fear. This was not a rogue operation but a core component of the assault's design.

This directive was corroborated by previously unreported real-time communications intercepted by Israeli intelligence on October 7, 2023, in which Hamas commanders gave stark orders like, "Start setting homes on fire," "Kill everyone on the road," and "Slit their throats."

The memo was unequivocal in its intent to weaponize the violence through media, instructing commanders to "intentionally, film them and broadcast images of them as fast as possible" to the Arab world. The attack resulted in the deaths of some 1,200 people and the abduction of around 250 more, shattering Israel's sense of security and triggering the long and brutal war that has now concluded.

With this entire tier of iconic and ruthless leadership now gone, Hamas is left with a skeleton crew inside Gaza. The Israel Hayom report emphasized this reality, noting that currently, only "Mahmoud al-Zahar, who is an elderly member of the Hamas political bureau, remains in Gaza," while other senior figures have either been killed or are now in exile.

This on-the-ground vacuum makes a figure like Abu Naim, with his long history within the movement and direct experience in Gaza, a logical contender.

The report also highlights Hamas's strategic frustrations, indicating that the movement feels it missed a crucial opportunity by failing to secure the release of four specific well-known senior prisoners: Ibrahim Hamed, Hassan Salameh, Abdullah Barghouti, and Abbas Sayed. According to the Israeli newspaper's analysis, Hamas believed these four individuals possessed the standing and ability to "easily replace Yahya Sinwar," and their continued imprisonment has deepened the succession crisis.

As Gaza takes its first tentative steps out of the shadow of war, the challenge for any new Hamas leader will be monumental. They will inherit a movement whose military and political wings have been decimated, a population suffering from immense humanitarian catastrophe, and a territory in ruins.

The new leader will have to navigate the complex terms of the ceasefire, the demands of reconstruction, and the new regional power dynamics forged by the conflict.

The emergence of Tawfiq Abu Naim as a potential successor signals a possible shift for Hamas, from an organization led by globally recognized figures of armed struggle to one potentially guided by administrators and former prisoners tasked with the grim and complex work of governing a shattered enclave in a new era of fragile peace.