Syrian Parliamentary Elections: A Stalemate for Change
As with previous elections, the process in West Kurdistan (Rojava) holds little significance and is being boycotted, deemed illegal and ineffective in changing the regime's political structure.
ERBIL (Kurdistan 24) - Syrian parliamentary elections are set to take place on Monday, but only within areas controlled by the Syrian regime. This will be the fourth round of elections for the Syrian People's Assembly (parliament) since the civil war began in 2011.
As with previous elections, the process in West Kurdistan (Rojava) holds little significance and is being boycotted, deemed illegal and ineffective in changing the regime's political structure.
The Kurdish National Council in Syria (ENKS), which has consistently boycotted these elections, believes the process does not contribute to a political solution and merely reinforces the Ba'ath Party's dominance in Damascus.
"The election is an emphasis of the Ba'ath Party on continuing the ideology on which it has built political power, not a step towards reform and change in politics and governance," said Faisal Yousef, spokesperson for the Kurdish National Council.
He added that a true shift in political power would require implementing human rights and transitioning from dictatorship to a democratic system in Syria, in accordance with UN Security Council resolutions.
Echoing this sentiment, the opposition Assyrian Democratic Organization (ADO) has also rejected the elections.
"The holding of the general elections is not only against the constitution issued by the Syrian regime in 2011, but also to send a message to the international community and spread its legitimacy among the Syrian people," said Gabriel Moushe Gawrieh, leader of the ADO.
He also added, "But in reality, most citizens reject these elections. The demonstrations in Sweden and other areas are real proof of their rejection of the current regime in Damascus."
On July 15, the Syrian regime under President Bashar al-Assad will hold elections for the Syrian parliament, the Syrian People’s Assembly (Majlis Al-Shaab). These elections will take place in the approximately 70% of Syrian territory under regime control.
Despite the assembly being a rubber-stamp parliament lacking legislative power and dominated by the ruling Ba’ath Party, the elections provide insight into the regime's operational dynamics.
The Context:
Syria remains deeply divided after more than 13 years of civil war, although a 2020 ceasefire in Idlib has reduced the intensity of fighting. The Assad regime, with Russian support, has reclaimed large areas of formerly rebel-held territory.
However, significant parts of the north remain under opposition control, including the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the northeast, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) along parts of the Turkish border, and the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Idlib.
Since the war began, the Assad regime has held various elections, all criticized for their lack of credibility.
In the 2021 presidential election, Assad secured over 95% of the vote, despite record low turnout. Similarly, the 2020 parliamentary elections saw voter turnout drop to 33%, down from 57% in 2016, with the government attributing the decline to the COVID-19 pandemic.
As the 2024 parliamentary elections approach, protests have emerged in Sweida, a Druze-majority region under regime control.
Electoral Mechanics:
The 2012 constitution nominally ended the Ba'ath Party's monopoly and introduced a multi-party system, but power dynamics remain unchanged. According to opposition sources, around 183 out of 250 parliamentary seats are reserved for the National Progressive Front (NPF), a coalition led by the Ba'ath Party.
The remaining 67 seats are filled by independents, often aligned with regime interests.
Candidate registration is tightly controlled to ensure loyalty, with General Intelligence and the Higher Judicial Committee for Elections (HJCE) vetting applicants. High rates of candidate withdrawal are common, with the party nomination processes effectively determining who gets on the National Unity lists.
The 250-seat People's Assembly reserves 127 seats for workers and farmers, reflecting the Ba’ath Party’s socialist origins, though the terms 'worker' and 'farmer' are loosely defined. Women's representation remains low, with only 10.4% of seats won by women in 2020.
District Allocation:
Syria's electoral districts are based on its 14 governorates, except for Aleppo Governorate, where Aleppo City is a separate constituency. Seat allocation does not correspond with population size, favoring regime strongholds like Latakia over opposition-associated regions like Daraa.
Implications:
Despite lacking authority and genuine function, the People’s Assembly is a tool for the regime to consolidate power and manage its support base. Syrians abroad, including over 5 million refugees, cannot easily participate in the elections.
The process reflects the regime's efforts to maintain control and reward loyalty, with upcoming constitutional reforms being crucial for Assad’s future political plans.
The 2024 parliamentary elections, while unlikely to surprise, offer a glimpse into the regime's inner workings and support networks. For a genuine shift toward democracy and human rights in Syria, significant political reforms and international oversight are essential.