Hezbollah Defies Disarmament Ultimatum as Lebanon Teeters on Brink of War

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) – Lebanon is standing on the precipice of a pivotal and potentially devastating new confrontation, as Hezbollah openly defies intense international pressure to disarm, prompting accelerated diplomatic interventions from the United States and Egypt amid escalating warnings of a large-scale Israeli military operation.

In an atmosphere thick with tension, a top American envoy has reportedly delivered a stark, one-week deadline for the Iran-backed militia to withdraw its weapons, a demand Hezbollah has already rejected, deepening a crisis that one analyst describes as an "extremely sensitive stage" that may determine Lebanon's entire security and political fate.

This immediate and high-stakes standoff, detailed in a new analysis by Sky News Arabia, unfolds against the backdrop of a months-long, delicate disarmament process led by the Lebanese army in the country's south.

That cautious effort, however, now appears to have been overtaken by a dramatic shift in the regional balance of power, a series of crippling security breaches within Hezbollah's ranks, and a growing impatience in Washington and Tel Aviv, placing Lebanon at what may be its most dangerous crossroads in decades.

An Ultimatum from Washington, A Warning from Cairo

The gravity of the current moment was crystallized by the recent visit of Morgan Ortagus, President Donald Trump’s deputy Middle East envoy, to Beirut. According to writer and political researcher Nidal al-Sabaa, speaking to Sky News Arabia, Ortagus's visit was part of an urgent American mission to prevent a catastrophic deterioration of the situation.

In a move laden with symbolic and military significance, al-Sabaa pointed out that the American envoy arrived "accompanied by Israeli officers to border areas in southern Lebanon." This, he argued, was a clear message from Tel Aviv that the file of Hezbollah's weapons is now "seriously on the table."

The message was not merely symbolic. Al-Sabaa revealed, quoting a "high-level Lebanese government source," that Ortagus delivered an ultimatum with a deadline not exceeding one week for the withdrawal of Hezbollah's weapons.

The source described this timeframe as "very short and unrealistic," particularly given that the Lebanese government itself lacks precise information on the locations of the party's depots and that communication is funneled through a complex "American-Israeli mechanism."

Hezbollah's response was swift and defiant. A message sent by the party's Secretary-General, Sheikh Naim Qassem, to the American envoy reflected a "rigid position," making it clear that the group is not prepared to hand over its weapons.

This refusal, al-Sabaa contends, means Lebanon now faces "real and serious threats related to its security and stability, and perhaps its entire political future."

Parallel to the American pressure, Egypt has been issuing its own dire warnings. Al-Sabaa revealed that Egyptian security services have conveyed "extremely dangerous" messages to Beirut, indicating that "something big is being prepared for Lebanon" and urging the government to treat the Israeli threats with realism and seriousness.

The head of Egyptian intelligence is expected to visit Beirut imminently to deliver these messages directly and to potentially open lines of communication for negotiations between Lebanon and Israel.

These efforts are part of a broader regional push to de-escalate, which al-Sabaa noted also includes a move by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who sent an envoy to Lebanon to discuss the withdrawal of heavy Palestinian weapons from refugee camps in an attempt to "remove the pretext that Israel uses to justify its attacks."

A Militant Group in Unprecedented Crisis

Hezbollah's defiant posture belies what al-Sabaa describes as a state of unprecedented internal crisis and weakness. He argues that the party "may not have yet realized the repercussions of October 7th" and the profound transformations it has caused.

In his analysis for Sky News Arabia, al-Sabaa stated that Hezbollah is still a prisoner of "a previous idea about its military capabilities," while the reality is that "Syria has fallen, Netanyahu has achieved a victory in the Gaza Strip, while Hezbollah has received a painful blow."

This vulnerability has been most starkly exposed by a catastrophic security failure. Al-Sabaa spoke clearly of an unprecedented exposure, stating that the party "is afflicted with a cancerous condition titled security breach," which allowed Israel to assassinate six of its senior leaders in just 48 hours.

This breach, he believes, reflects the fragility of the party's structure after successive blows. He noted that Hezbollah's leaders have been forced to abandon phones and pagers, yet Israel continues to reach them, indicating a deep and unresolved intelligence penetration.

This internal crisis is compounded by a logistical and financial collapse. According to al-Sabaa, any missile launched by the party now "cannot be replaced due to the collapse of supply lines through Syria and the fall of the logistical support system."

While Hezbollah may be able to recruit new fighters, it faces "crippling financial difficulties" due to the tightening of control over financial transfers from Iran and increased scrutiny over Lebanese ports and airports, severely limiting its ability to restore its military arsenal.

This has led to a dramatic shift in the military balance. Al-Sabaa asserted that the difference in capabilities between Israel and Hezbollah has become "vast," and the balance of deterrence the party possessed in 2000 and 2006 has "completely eroded."

The Army's Tightrope Walk in the South

This immediate and volatile crisis unfolds against the backdrop of a more gradual, months-long disarmament process that the Lebanese army has been undertaking in the south of the country. As detailed in a background report by The Arab Weekly, citing Reuters, the army has been working to meet a year-end deadline to clear Hezbollah weapons from the area south of the Litani River, as stipulated by a ceasefire agreement reached with Israel in November 2024.

This task, once considered unimaginable, has been proceeding with a mixture of caution and determination.

According to security sources cited in the report, the army has successfully sealed dozens of tunnels used by Hezbollah and located numerous arms caches. The process has been so active that the army reportedly ran out of its own explosives stocks by June and is now waiting for a delivery of $14 million in demolition charges and other aid from the United States.

In the interim, troops are sealing off weapons sites instead of destroying them.

The army's progress has been heavily reliant on intelligence supplied by Israel through "the Mechanism," a US-chaired committee established by the truce deal. However, the process is fraught with political and physical danger.

The army has deliberately avoided publicizing its work or even explicitly stating the weapons belong to Hezbollah, seeking to "avoid inflaming tensions and to buy time for Lebanon’s politicians to reach a consensus," according to The Arab Weekly.

The operation is a perilous tightrope walk, aimed at fulfilling international obligations without triggering a direct confrontation with Hezbollah's popular base, which could risk fracturing the army itself, as happened during the country's civil war.

This cautious approach has also faced direct harassment from Israel. The report noted that several Lebanese soldiers have been wounded by Israeli fire during inspection missions, and Israeli drones have dropped grenades near soldiers and UN peacekeepers.

Hezbollah, for its part, has not opposed the seizure of these unmanned caches in the south, but maintains that any disarmament efforts north of the Litani River would require a political settlement. This distinction is now at the heart of the current crisis, as the new US-led pressure appears to demand a comprehensive disarmament that goes far beyond the army's current, geographically limited mandate.

A Divided State at a Decisive Crossroads

As external pressures mount, Lebanon's internal political landscape remains fractured. According to al-Sabaa's analysis for Sky News Arabia, the country's leadership is not unified in its approach.

Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri is reportedly inclined towards "de-escalation and reaching a solution," while President Joseph Aoun is following a "policy of long breath," quietly trying to find common ground with Hezbollah. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, meanwhile, appears "more in a hurry," seeking to resolve the weapons file within a year to avert a potential Israeli attack.

This internal division leaves Lebanon dangerously exposed as it stands at a perilous crossroads. Al-Sabaa concludes that the country faces a stark choice: either it succeeds in opening a negotiating path to de-escalate tensions, or it "slides into a field confrontation whose limits are unknown."

The Lebanese government has reportedly shown a willingness to negotiate, with a high-ranking source telling al-Sabaa that "there is no difference between direct and indirect negotiations" as long as the Americans are mediating.

This "glimmer of hope," however, is set against the stark reality of Hezbollah's internal crisis, the erosion of its Iranian support, and a determined Israeli posture backed by the United States.

In a final, grim assessment, al-Sabaa captured the essence of the standoff: "the region has changed, and Hezbollah has not changed." The party's continued refusal to hand over its weapons, he warned, "may make Lebanon an open arena for a coming war," unless a formula of understanding can be urgently reached to save the country from a devastating explosion.