Voters Want Cheaper Prices, But The Next Congress Can Do Nothing About It, Economists Warn

ERBIL (Kurdistan 24) - Even if Democrats win control of Congress in the November 3 midterm elections, there is nothing the new Congress can do about the level of prices that will remain very high regardless of which party controls Capitol Hill, economists and analysts told the Washington Post on Saturday as voter anger over the rising cost of everyday life threatens to reshape both chambers of Congress for the second consecutive election.

"There is nothing the next Congress can do about the level of prices," said Jason Furman, a top White House economic adviser to President Barack Obama.

They will remain very high.

Consumer prices are up 30 percent since the start of the pandemic, three times as much as during the prior six years. While median earnings largely kept pace with inflation between 2022 and 2025, consumer prices over the past year rose more than twice as much as the typical American worker's earnings, the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed this week.

The Iran War's Energy Impact

Trump's policies have been especially damaging to energy prices, which he promised to cut in half during his campaign. Instead, thanks to the war with Iran, Americans are paying far more for gasoline, heating oil, and electricity. Diesel fuel prices now stand at a national average of $6.31 per gallon, up almost 75 percent over the past year, raising the cost of everything transported by truck. The national average for gasoline has topped $4.29 per gallon according to AAA. Airline fares have jumped 22 percent over the past year. Brent crude is selling for more than $117 per barrel, up from approximately $70 on the eve of the war.

This summer, oil prices fell back to the $70 range after the US and Iran reached a tentative settlement. That deal collapsed and prices have risen sharply amid recent reports that Trump may resume strikes on Iran after the November 3 elections. Global oil inventories are 509 million barrels lower than before the war, according to the International Energy Agency, and oil reserves held on land are at their lowest level since at least 2016. Traders expect Brent crude delivered in December 2027 to trade close to $90 per barrel, up from around $70 at the end of June.

The AI Factor

The economy's strongest point, the artificial intelligence revolution, is simultaneously among the forces fueling inflation. Massive spending on data centers has created enormous demand for computer chips, cooling systems, server racks, and power gear, driving up prices for components across consumer technology products. Software prices rose more than 28 percent over the past year. Computer peripheral costs increased 10 percent. Goldman Sachs expects the leading technology firms including Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta to spend a combined $1.2 trillion in 2027, up from around $800 billion this year.

Trump's Inflation Record

U.S President Donald Trump promised to quickly bring down prices during his 2024 campaign. Since January 2025, inflation has instead increased from an annual rate of 3 percent to 3.7 percent. Three-quarters of US adults disapprove of Trump's handling of inflation according to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll. Less than a week after the government announced that inflation had risen to 3.7 percent annually in September from 3.4 percent in August, Trump said at the Rose Garden: "Prices are coming way down, I'm seeing. Down, down, down. Big improvement from the previous administration."

On the cost of living, US adults now prefer Democrats over Republicans by a margin of 38 percent to 24 percent, the same poll found, as Republicans' chances of retaining their congressional majority have been steadily eroded by the cost of living issue.

What Can Congress Actually Do

House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has promised the party's affordability agenda will drive down the high cost of living in every possible area if Democrats win. He has spoken of repealing tariffs and clawing back tariff powers from the president. But trade analysts say Democratic midterm victories will not change the direction of the Trump administration's trade policy, because many of the powers Trump uses to impose tariffs do not require congressional approval.

The main forces driving inflation, the Iran war's impact on energy prices, the AI boom, and Trump's trade policies, cannot be terminated by Congress even if Democrats control both chambers. Congress cannot end the war over Trump's opposition, cannot end his tariffs without his signature on repeal legislation, and would not want to derail the AI sector propping up economic growth and the stock market.

By fall 2027, economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to be rising at a slower 2.4 percent annual rate, closer to the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. But slower price increases from an already high base will not return prices to pre-pandemic levels. Only deep economic recessions cause prices to actually fall, as in 2008 when prices declined by 4 percent. "People eventually acclimate to the price level," said Jared Bernstein, who chaired the White House Council of Economic Advisers under Biden. "What people want is their old prices back. Zero inflation at current price levels would not be comfortable for people."