President Barzani Warns U.S. Withdrawal Will Trigger ISIS Resurgence

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) – In a wide-ranging and candid interview from Paris, President Masoud Barzani on Monday issued a stark and unequivocal warning that a withdrawal of U.S. and coalition forces from Iraq would inevitably lead to a resurgence of ISIS, creating a security vacuum reminiscent of the catastrophic events of 2012. Speaking on France 24's flagship interview show, Tête-à-tête, President Barzani also addressed the monumental peace process unfolding in Türkiye, expressed grave concerns over a potential Arab-Kurdish war in Syria, and delivered a firm message to Baghdad, demanding it uphold the constitution and fully recognize Iraq’s federal system as the only path to resolving long-standing disputes.

The high-profile interview with host Marc Perelman came just days after President Barzani led a delegation in a historic ceremony in the French capital that saw the official dedication of a park and street in honor of the Peshmerga.

This tribute, which President Barzani hailed as a "historic day for the Kurdish people," cemented a powerful symbol of the deep and enduring friendship between the Kurdish and French nations in the heart of Europe and served as the backdrop for his critical diplomatic engagements.

A Looming Security Vacuum

When questioned about the planned withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq by the end of 2025 and from the Kurdistan Region by the end of 2026, President Barzani did not mince words, drawing a direct parallel to the previous American departure that paved the way for the rise of the Islamic State.

"There is no doubt," he stated firmly. "If the American and coalition forces withdraw, then we will be faced with the same scenario of what happened back in 2012. ISIS will rise again."

Despite this grave assessment, he expressed a degree of confidence that the international community would not allow for a complete security collapse.

"I don't believe that there will be a total withdrawal of forces," he noted, reaffirming the long-held position of the Kurdish leadership. "We have always said that our country needs American and coalition forces. The reason for that is because ISIS is a very present danger, and we said quite officially that this is our position. It is part of our policy."

Navigating the Syrian Quagmire

Addressing the volatile situation in Syria following the change in regime, President Barzani voiced deep concern over the potential for escalating violence, particularly against minorities, including the Kurds.

He confirmed his support for the March agreement between Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) commander Mazloum Abdi and interim president Ahmed al-Shara to integrate the region's institutions, an agreement whose implementation has stalled.

"Recently, we have concerns that the situation may escalate," he said. However, he emphasized that his greatest apprehension was the instigation of a broader conflict by outside forces.

"My greatest fear is that there is some form of intervention which will trigger a war between the Kurdish people and the Arab people. It is my greatest fear, and we are doing everything to avoid that."

He stressed the need for a peaceful resolution, stating, "We mustn't focus on war because war is not a solution. In my opinion, the new powers to be must take into account all components that make up our country."

When pressed on Türkiye’s threats of military action against the SDF, President Barzani offered a diplomatic response, highlighting his positive relationship with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and indicating that Ankara was not opposed to a peaceful outcome.

"The Turkish do support a peaceful process. They also supported the agreement back in March, as did we," he said. He further sought to de-escalate the rhetoric, stating, "I don't believe that these groups are against Turkish interests. Turkish leaders have expressed their desire to reach a resolution."

A Turning Point in the Turkish-Kurdish Conflict

President Barzani spoke with measured optimism about what he described as a "crucial turning point"—the recent decision by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) to disarm and disband, a process being facilitated within the Kurdistan Region.

He identified a "fundamental change" in the current peace initiative that set it apart from previous failed attempts.

"What is different this time is the peace process itself," he explained. "From the government, from the parliament, and also from public opinion in Türkiye, we are seeing that everyone is in favor of a peace process."

He confirmed his direct involvement in supporting the initiative, revealing that the jailed PKK leader, Abdullah Öcalan, had sent a delegation to meet with him even before the process formally began.

"We were able to talk about our support, our official support for the peace process and everything that was asked of us was done. We are going to continue doing so and we hope that the process will bring about peace."

Regarding Öcalan's personal fate, President Barzani responded thoughtfully to the question of whether he would visit him in prison and if he should be freed.

"I certainly hope I will be able to meet with him, but outside the prison," he stated, clearly signaling his desire for Öcalan’s release.

While confirming he had not recently discussed the matter with President Erdoğan, he framed it as an inevitable part of a successful resolution, saying, "I do feel that that will be an outcome of the peace process, him being set free."

The Enduring Challenge of Erbil-Baghdad Relations

The interview also delved into the perennially complicated relationship between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the federal government in Baghdad. On the issue of the recent drone strikes that targeted the Kurdistan Region in July, President Barzani remained circumspect, refusing to preempt the findings of a joint investigative commission.

"The plan is for the outcomes of that inquiry to be made public in due course. I do not want to comment or to give any detail about the report now before it is made public," he said.

However, when asked about public accusations pointing to specific Iran-allied factions within the Hashd al-Shaabi, he acknowledged that blame was not generalized but targeted, stating, "Granted, there are certain known parties, but we are not accusing all people from the Popular movements. There are some specific groups that are being looked into."

In a telling remark, he added, "Aside from that, all is clear."

On the recurring financial and oil disputes, President Barzani conceded that significant challenges remain.

"Unfortunately, there are challenges that lie ahead. We need to be honest about that," he said. Yet, he insisted that a solution was possible if both sides demonstrated genuine will.

He identified the Iraqi constitution as the sole framework for resolving these issues, while simultaneously accusing Baghdad of failing to respect its most fundamental principles.

"We have a constitution which is a roadmap for us and for Baghdad. We aren't asking for any more than what is already in the constitution. However, we will not allow the constitution to be violated," he asserted. "There is also the problem of recognition of the federal system. It is a current problem where Baghdad fails to recognize federalism."

Internal Political Hurdles

Finally, President Barzani addressed the political paralysis within the Kurdistan Region itself, where the parliament elected last October has yet to convene and form a new government. "It is true. It is unfortunate. We are not very happy with this situation," he admitted.

He expressed hope that the impasse would be broken soon, stating, "We hope that come September or in the coming days, parliament will be able to meet again to start a new session and form a government."

The interview, conducted on a major international platform, presented a comprehensive overview of the myriad challenges facing the Kurdish people, as articulated by President Barzani. 

From the existential threat of a resurgent ISIS to the delicate dance of regional diplomacy and the foundational struggle for constitutional rights within Iraq, President Barzani painted a picture of a nation navigating a treacherous geopolitical landscape while steadfastly pursuing its long-held aspirations for peace and stability.

You can watch the entire interview below: