US expects Turkey to modify opposition to Sweden and Finland joining NATO
WASHINGTON DC (Kurdistan 24) – State Department Spokesperson Ned Price, on Tuesday, repeatedly affirmed that NATO would achieve a consensus on admitting Sweden and Finland as members of the alliance.
Price's statements echoed what Secretary of State Antony Blinken had said on Saturday, following a meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu. However, they were at odds with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's statement on Monday, as he escalated his objections to the two Nordic countries joining NATO.
Blinken and Cavusoglu are to meet again on Wednesday, in New York, for the first session of the US-Turkish "Strategic Mechanism," which may well make Ankara's position clearer.
US Passivity and Erdogan's Escalating Objection
Last week, at a press conference following Friday prayers in Istanbul, Erdogan responding to a journalist's question, said, "We don't have a positive opinion" on Sweden and Finland joining NATO.
"Scandinavian countries are, unfortunately, like a guesthouse of terrorist organizations," Erdogan continued. "The PKK [Kurdistan Workers' Party], DHKP-C [Revolutionary People's Liberation Party/Front] nestle in Sweden, the Netherlands," he said.
Why Erdogan mentioned the Netherlands is unclear. The European country is a NATO member, but its membership is not in question. Perhaps, Erdogan meant Finland?
Read More: As Erdogan opposes Sweden, Finland joining NATO, he denounces US relaxation of sanctions on Rojava
Despite Erdogan's negativity, US officials subsequently went out of their way to affirm Turkey's importance. Asked about Erdogan's statement on Friday, Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby responded, "We're working to clarify, to better understand Turkey's position," adding," Turkey is a valued NATO ally."
Not for nothing did former US President Donald Trump call Erdogan a "tough cookie" after a meeting in 2019. The conciliatory US stance following Erdogan's remarks may well have been a mistake, encouraging him to up the ante.
Erdogan took a firmer stance on Monday, even adopting an insulting posture toward Sweden and Finland—which may well have pleased populist, nationalist elements within Turkey and even in the broader Middle East, as he voiced them with an Arab leader at his side.
"Neither of these countries [i.e., Sweden and Finland] has a clear, open attitude toward terrorist organizations," Erdogan said at a press conference with visiting Algerian President and Minister of Defense, Abdel Madjid Tebboune.
"How can we trust them?" Erdogan asked as he complained about the arms embargo that Sweden and Finland had imposed following Turkey's October 2019 attack in northeast Syria on territory controlled by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF.)
At that point, Trump had hoped to fulfill a campaign promise to end the "forever wars" that followed the 9/11 attacks. Trump wanted to declare victory against ISIS in Syria, withdraw US forces, and turn over responsibility for fighting the terrorist group there to Turkey.
Read More: Broad opposition to Trump on Syria, including Republicans and evangelical Christians
But the move was extraordinarily unpopular in the US, including among Trump's political base. Caught by surprise at the negative reaction, Trump was obliged to reverse his position quickly, limit the Turkish military operation, and keep US troops in Rojava.
Read More: US senators, experts condemn Turkey in Syria
Erdogan Seeks Concessions?
Russia's brutal, unprovoked assault on Ukraine is the biggest security crisis in the West in over 70 years—since World War II. That war hangs like a shadow over current events.
Current Western leaders recognize that early efforts back then to appease Adolph Hitler to avoid war had the reverse effect. They only encouraged his aggression and made the war that followed all the more horrible.
Some 10 million people died in the European theater alone during World War II. Repeating such a catastrophe was long thought to be unthinkable, but now Western leaders are not so sure.
And that explains why Sweden and Finland are abandoning their centuries-old tradition of neutrality to join NATO.
On Monday, the Swedish Foreign Office announced that senior representatives from that country and Finland "plan to travel to Turkey for talks to address Ankara's concerns," Reuters reported.
Erdogan seemed to misrepresent that statement—and then proceeded to insult both countries—as if he were oblivious to the stakes for Europe in the current crisis.
"They say they will come to Turkey on Monday," Erdogan said. "Are they coming to convince us? Excuse me, but they should not tire themselves."
Is Erdogan Going too Far?
"The crisis Erdogan has precipitated within NATO has raised eyebrows not just in Europe, but also in Turkey," Al-Monitor wrote on Tuesday. "Many former Turkish diplomats and veteran foreign policy analysts have criticized Erdogan's move."
"They believe Erdogan is attempting to cash in on Turkey's renewed strategic importance for the West after the invasion of Ukraine," it said.
Al-Monitor cited former Turkish Ambassador Oguz Demiralp, whose recent article in T24 it summarized as arguing, "Erdogan has chosen a course that is highly risky for Turkey."
"Appearing to be a spoiler at a time when the West's desire to consolidate itself against Russia is so tangible is not the correct policy," Demiralp wrote.
Al-Monitor also cited Namik Tan, a former Turkish ambassador to Washington, who believes Erdogan's main target is the US because of its support for the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) in northeast Syria.
"Such bargaining in an organization that you are an equal member of should be conducted with a positive emphasis, in an intelligent manner and within the context of existing processes," Tan tweeted.
"Explicit defiance may not bring what you expected, while you end up with unexpected losses with your words amounting to nothing in the end," he cautioned.
Similarly, the Voice of America, reporting from Istanbul, cited Soli Ozel, a professor of international relations at Kadir Has University. Ozel explained that one of Ankara's goals is to persuade Washington to allow the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey.
However, the statements of the Turkish president raise questions "over where Erdogan's ultimate allegiances lie," Ozel cautioned, and that might lead to a "much more negative sentiment" regarding the sale of "the F-16s and the kits for upgrading the existing F-16s in the US Congress," he said.
"In that sense I don't find such a public move," as Erdogan is making, "so advisable," Ozel concluded.
Blinken and Cavusoglu
On Saturday, following Erdogan's initial comments about NATO membership for Sweden and Finland, Blinken and his Turkish counterpart Cavusoglu met at a NATO Foreign Minister's meeting in Brussels. Later that day, Blinken held a press conference in which he was asked if he had spoken with Cavusoglu and if Ankara would allow NATO membership for the two Nordic countries.
Blinken confirmed he had, indeed, met with the Turkish foreign minister. "I don't want to characterize the specific conversation that we had either with the foreign minister or within the NATO sessions themselves," he said, but "I heard, almost across the board, very strong support for Finland and [Sweden] joining the Alliance," and "I'm very confident that we will reach consensus on that."
On Tuesday, as journalists pressed Price regarding Turkey's position, he repeatedly referred to Blinken's statement. Nothing had changed as far as the State Department was concerned.
Notably, perhaps, when Price was asked, "Has Turkey asked for anything from the US in exchange for supporting their [Sweden, Finland] bids [for NATO membership]?" he declined to answer.
Nonetheless, when asked, "Are you confident that Turkey's concerns will be in the rearview mirror by the time the leaders of Sweden and Finland come to the White House later this week?" Price responded, "We are confident that we will be able to preserve the consensus within the Alliance of strong support for a potential application of Finland and Sweden."