Zebari: Drone Attacks on Kurdistan's Oil Fields Threaten Iraq's 'Golden Opportunity'

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) – A series of targeted drone attacks on the Kurdistan Region's oil infrastructure this past summer could undermine a "golden opportunity" for Iraq to achieve lasting stability and economic progress, former Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari has warned. 

In a wide-ranging interview with The National, Zebari cautioned that while Iraq is experiencing an unprecedented period of calm and attracting significant new investment, the failure of the central government to hold the perpetrators of these attacks accountable sends a chilling message to the international business community, threatening to derail the country's fragile revival.

The warning, delivered in an interview with The National, comes as Iraq enjoys a period of relative stability that has encouraged a surge in economic activity. However, the unresolved issue of the drone strikes in July, which targeted US investments in the Kurdistan Region, remains a significant point of friction and a test of the state's authority. 

"The Iraqi government investigated this case, but when the probe concluded, they didn't name any of the culprits, which really discourages investors," Zebari stated.

This summer, multiple explosive-laden drones struck oilfields in the Kurdistan Region over several consecutive days. At the time, authorities in Erbil blamed the attacks on militias linked to the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), a coalition of mostly Iran-aligned former paramilitaries that have since been integrated into Iraq’s armed forces, an accusation that Baghdad has rejected. 

Zebari emphasized that for Iraq to truly seize its current moment of promise, it must first establish a secure and lawful environment. "Iraq needs more than anything else a conducive environment for investors, security, the court, the laws and the control of the outlaws and militias," he said.

Despite this significant threat, Zebari acknowledged that Iraq is at a pivotal and promising juncture, describing the current climate as a "golden opportunity" for the nation to "stand on its feet and move forward." 

Since the government of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani took office in late 2022, the country has experienced a level of calm not seen since 2003, giving authorities the confidence to launch major infrastructure projects and pursue reforms aimed at improving the business environment. This has been a welcome change after decades of war, sanctions, corruption, and mismanagement that crippled growth in what is Opec’s second-largest oil producer.

The results of this newfound stability are tangible. Baghdad is in the midst of a construction boom, and international investors are returning. 

According to The National, major energy firms like BP have resumed operations, while talks are underway with ExxonMobil and an agreement in principle has been signed with Chevron. 

Haider Makiya, chairman of Iraq's National Investment Commission, was cited by The National to have confirmed that since early 2023, more than $100 billion in investment has been pledged, comprising $64 billion from foreign investors and $38.6 billion from domestic companies.

"Iraq is moving on many fronts," Zebari said. "Economically, it is inviting foreign investors primarily because there has been better security throughout the country. There are fewer terrorist attacks and disturbances." 

He praised the "goodwill of the Iraqi government" in encouraging this revival, particularly its efforts to attract American companies in the oil sector.

This domestic progress, Zebari argued, is part of a much broader and "positive change" sweeping across the region, characterized by a distinct trend of bringing powerful non-state actors and their weapons under state control. 

He pointed to several key examples of this regional shift. In Lebanon, the cabinet recently approved an army plan to reassert the state’s monopoly on weapons, a move directly aimed at the powerful Iran-backed Hezbollah. 

In Syria, the new transitional leadership under President Ahmed al-Shara is actively pursuing a campaign to fold remaining militias into a reconstituted national army as part of its post-war state-building efforts. 

In the Kurdish arena, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has begun signaling demobilization, a first concrete step toward a promised disarmament as part of a nascent peace process.

This trend, he explained to The National, is a direct result of a series of strategic setbacks suffered by Iran’s so-called "Axis of Resistance" over the past year. 

Militant groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza have been left militarily degraded after devastating wars with Israel depleted their fighters, leadership, and capabilities. This has been compounded by a focused Israeli campaign, with U.S. support, against Iranian nuclear-related sites and military infrastructure, which has disrupted Tehran’s program.

However, Zebari identified the fall of the Assad regime in Syria late last year as the most significant blow to Tehran's regional influence. 

"It came at a pivotal moment. It came as a surprise to many regional powers, and I think it was a blessing for the entire region," he said, describing the event as a "turning point in the Middle East." 

The collapse of the Assad government removed a central client-state and severed a pivotal conduit that connected Iran to the Mediterranean through Iraq and Lebanon.

This weakening of Iranian influence is also being felt within Iraq itself. Zebari highlighted the recent withdrawal of a contentious PMF integration bill from parliament, a move that came after strong and, notably, public pressure from the United States. 

"The American position has been very outspoken recently, unlike before. They used to pass these messages through diplomatic channels. This time they have come openly and publicly that they will not support the passing of the PMF law," Zebari observed. 

The bill would have elevated the PMF to a status on par with the rest of the Iraqi military, a move the U.S. warned would have undermined Iraq’s sovereignty and further entrenched Iranian influence.

Ultimately, Zebari's assessment presents a picture of a nation at a crossroads, where a golden opportunity for economic and social progress is being directly challenged by the persistent and destabilizing threat of rogue militias. 

The drone attacks on the Kurdistan Region serve as a stark reminder that until the state can establish a true monopoly on force and create a secure environment governed by the rule of law, the full potential of Iraq's revival will remain at risk.