China’s Birth Rate Hits Record Low as Population Decline Deepens

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) — China’s birth rate fell to its lowest level on record last year, official data released Monday showed, underscoring the depth of the country’s demographic crisis as the population shrank for a fourth consecutive year despite sustained government intervention.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), just 7.92 million births were recorded, translating into a birth rate of 5.63 per thousand people. The figure marks the lowest level since official records began in 1949, the year Communist leader Mao Zedong proclaimed the founding of the People’s Republic of China.

The latest data confirms a renewed downward trend following a brief and limited rebound in 2024, when births rose slightly to 6.77 per thousand people. That uptick had offered tentative hope that policy changes might be slowing the decline.

Instead, last year’s figures fell well below the previous low set in 2023, when China registered 9.02 million births, or 6.39 per thousand.

The sharp fall comes as China also recorded 11.31 million deaths in 2025, resulting in a mortality rate of 8.04 per thousand. Combined, the figures produced a net population decline of 2.41 per thousand, highlighting the growing imbalance between births and deaths in the world’s second-largest economy.

Chinese authorities have struggled to reverse the trend since dismantling the decades-long one-child policy, which was fully abandoned in 2016 and later replaced by a three-child policy.

In recent years, Beijing has rolled out a range of measures aimed at encouraging couples to marry and have children, including childcare subsidies, tax incentives, extended maternity and paternity leave, and preferential housing and education policies.

Some local governments have also experimented with financial rewards for families with multiple children, while authorities have sought to raise the cost of contraception in an effort to nudge fertility higher.

Despite these efforts, social and economic realities continue to weigh heavily on younger generations. Marriage rates have fallen to record lows, with many young Chinese citing high housing prices, rising childcare and education costs, job insecurity, and career pressures as reasons for delaying or avoiding marriage and parenthood altogether.

Changing social attitudes, greater female participation in higher education and the workforce, and lingering uncertainty following years of economic slowdown have further dampened fertility intentions.

Demographers warn that the sustained decline in births and the rapid aging of China’s population pose long-term risks to economic growth, labor supply, and the sustainability of social welfare systems.

With fewer young workers supporting a growing elderly population, pressure is expected to mount on pensions, healthcare, and public finances.

While policymakers have signaled that addressing the demographic challenge is a national priority, subject-matter experts say reversing the trend will require more than short-term incentives. 

Structural reforms to reduce living costs, improve work-life balance, and rebuild confidence in long-term economic prospects may be essential if China is to slow—or eventually halt—its historic population decline.