Tehran's Iron Grip: US Intelligence Warns Iran Will Not Reopen Strait of Hormuz Anytime Soon
US intelligence reports warn Iran is unlikely to reopen the Strait of Hormuz soon, with Tehran viewing its chokehold over the waterway as its most powerful leverage against Washington. Experts caution that any military attempt to force it open carries heavy risks and may not succeed.
ERBIL (Kurdistan24) - Iran has no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz in the near future. That is the conclusion of recent US intelligence reports, according to three sources familiar with the matter who spoke to Reuters on Saturday.
The assessments warn that Tehran regards its grip on the world's most critical oil passage as its sole meaningful leverage over the United States, and that it is highly unlikely to relinquish that advantage anytime soon.
The findings carry significant implications for the nearly five-week-old war. They suggest that Tehran could continue throttling the strait — through which a fifth of the world's oil trade passes — to keep global energy prices elevated and pressure President Donald Trump into seeking a swift end to a conflict that remains deeply unpopular with American voters.
The reports also point to a broader strategic irony: a war launched with the intent of eradicating Iran's military strength may have actually increased Tehran's regional influence by demonstrating its ability to threaten the waterway.
Trump's shifting stance
Trump has sought to downplay the difficulty of reopening the strait. On Friday, he appeared to suggest that US forces could reopen the passage with relative ease, posting on his Truth Social platform: "With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE."
A White House official, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said Trump is "confident that the strait will be open very soon" and has been clear that Iran would not be allowed to regulate waterway traffic after the war.
The same official, however, noted that Trump has also said other countries "have far more at stake in preventing this outcome" than the United States.
Trump's position has shifted on the question of potential US involvement in reopening the strait. He has made ending Iran's chokehold a ceasefire precondition, but has also called on Gulf oil-dependent countries and NATO allies to take the lead in the effort.
A weapon more potent than nuclear arms
Analysts have long warned that attempting to use force against Iran — which controls one side of the strait — could prove costly and draw the United States into a protracted ground war.
Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, described the situation in stark terms, saying that in attempting to prevent Iran from developing a weapon of mass destruction, the US had handed Tehran a weapon of mass disruption.
Vaez added that Tehran understands its ability to move global energy markets through its chokehold on the strait is far more potent than even a nuclear weapon.
One of the three sources who spoke to Reuters put it plainly: "It is certainly the case that now that Iran has tasted its power and leverage over the strait, it won't soon give it up."
The military risks of forced reopening
Many experts caution that a military operation to reopen the waterway carries considerable risks. The strait separates Iran and Oman, measuring 21 miles at its narrowest point, but the shipping lane is only 2 miles wide in each direction — making vessels and troops easy targets.
Even if US forces were to seize the southern Iranian coast and its islands, the IRGC could continue attacking them and maintaining control of the waterway using drones and missiles launched from deep inside Iranian territory. Vaez noted that "all it takes to disrupt traffic and deter vessels from passing through is one or two drones."
Iran's long-term calculus
Since the war began on Feb. 28, 2026, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has deployed a range of tactics to make commercial transit through the strait too dangerous or uninsurable — attacking civilian vessels, releasing mines, and demanding passage fees — sending global oil prices soaring to multi-year highs and causing fuel shortages in countries dependent on Gulf energy. Rising energy costs risk fueling inflation inside the United States, posing a growing political liability for Trump as his Republican Party prepares for mid-term congressional elections in November.
Some experts said that even after the war ends, Iran is unlikely to abandon its ability to regulate strait traffic, as charging commercial shipping fees would serve as a key source of reconstruction funds. Former CIA Director Bill Burns, speaking on a Foreign Affairs magazine podcast, said Iran would look to use its leverage over the waterway to secure long-term deterrence and security guarantees in any peace deal with the United States, as well as direct material benefits such as passage fees to fund its post-war recovery.