Commercial Gasoline Prices in Kurdistan Expected to Fall Below 1,000 IQD

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) - Commercial gasoline prices across the Kurdistan Region are expected to fall below 1,000 Iraqi dinars per liter within the coming week, according to officials and market information obtained by Kurdistan24, offering the prospect of relief after days of heavy congestion at subsidized fuel stations driven by tight supplies and elevated retail prices.

The anticipated decline follows a period in which motorists have increasingly queued at stations selling subsidized gasoline at 750 IQD per liter, as commercial fuel prices rose high enough to make the lower-priced option significantly more attractive.

While officials caution that the projected price reduction depends on market conditions, they say easing pressure on commercial supplies should gradually reduce demand at subsidized stations and improve overall availability.

The developments carry significance beyond the fuel sector itself. Demand for gasoline in the Kurdistan Region has expanded steadily alongside rapid growth in vehicle ownership, tourism and commercial activity.

During Kurdistan24's Basi Roj program hosted by Zhino Mohammed, Rebin Zangana, Director General of the Diwan at the Ministry of Natural Resources, said approximately 13,000 tourist vehicles enter Erbil every day, consuming an estimated 750,000 liters of gasoline daily.

He also noted that the Region now requires roughly six million liters of gasoline each day, underscoring why stable fuel supplies have become increasingly important for households, businesses, transport operators and the tourism industry.

According to Salar Mohammed, head of the Inspection and Follow-up Department at the Erbil Directorate of Oil and Minerals, the immediate cause of the shortage lies upstream in the fuel production chain.

Speaking to Kurdistan24 on Tuesday, Mohammed said the Ministry of Natural Resources is currently supplying 50,000 barrels of crude oil per day to the KAR and Lanaz refineries, where the crude is processed into gasoline and other petroleum products.

He explained that approximately 24% of the crude allocated to the two refineries is converted into gasoline before being distributed across Erbil, Sulaymaniyah and Duhok for sale at the government-supported price.

That production level, he said, has proven insufficient to fully satisfy demand for subsidized fuel.

Mohammed added that increasing crude allocations to the refineries would allow them to produce more gasoline for subsidized distribution, reducing pressure on filling stations and improving supplies across the three governorates.

The supply imbalance has produced a visible shift in consumer behavior. As commercial prices climbed, more motorists opted to wait in lengthy lines at stations offering subsidized fuel, creating bottlenecks that have become increasingly common in recent days.

According to information obtained by Kurdistan24, many filling stations continue to hold inventories purchased when wholesale prices were higher.

Those existing stocks have delayed any immediate decline in retail prices because operators typically sell previously purchased fuel before adjusting prices to reflect lower replacement costs.

Once those inventories are exhausted, however, market participants expect commercial gasoline prices to move lower.

Current projections cited by Kurdistan24 indicate retail prices could fall to between 950 and 980 IQD per liter within about a week, although officials have not presented that range as a guaranteed outcome.

Broader developments in the Region's energy sector could also contribute to greater market stability.

During his appearance on Kurdistan24's Basi Rozh, Zangana said oil production at fields across the Kurdistan Region has resumed and described operations as progressing steadily.

While he noted that rising gasoline prices have affected markets beyond the Kurdistan Region, he said government measures have already begun easing price pressures and expressed confidence that further reductions could follow.

Zangana also outlined additional steps aimed at strengthening fuel supplies.

He said authorities have simplified procedures allowing companies to import higher-quality gasoline, removing previous licensing requirements in an effort to increase market availability. 

At the same time, he warned that fuel stations violating official regulations would face enforcement measures.

The Region's expanding vehicle fleet adds another layer of pressure to the market.

According to Zangana, the number of registered vehicles has risen to approximately 2.9 million, an increase of about 600,000 since 2023.

Combined with rising tourist arrivals and growing commercial transport, that expansion has steadily increased daily fuel consumption, making supply disruptions more immediately visible to consumers.

The government's broader fuel planning extends beyond gasoline.

Zangana said preparations have been completed for the annual distribution of heating kerosene, which is scheduled to begin in early September.

He also said sufficient supplies of household liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are available and that no shortages are anticipated.

For motorists, however, attention remains focused on gasoline prices and availability.

If commercial fuel prices decline as expected over the coming days, the financial incentive driving exceptionally long queues at subsidized stations could begin to diminish.

Officials also indicate that any future increase in crude supplied to local refineries would further improve the availability of subsidized gasoline.

For now, the Region's fuel market remains in a transitional period, balancing constrained refinery output against steadily growing demand.

Whether the expected price decline translates into shorter queues and more consistent supplies will depend on both inventory turnover at filling stations and the pace at which production and imports continue to expand.