Kurdistan Region Expects Above-Average Rainfall This Year, Official Says
Kurdistan's meteorology chief forecasts above-average rainfall this year, warning of heavy rain, mountain snow and severe conditions through the weekend.
ERBIL (Kurdistan24) - The Kurdistan Region is facing one of its stronger rainfall systems, with precipitation expected to intensify through the weekend and this year's total forecast to exceed the annual average, the Region's chief meteorologist warned on Friday, Nov. 6, 2026.
Fazil Ibrahim, Director General of Meteorology and Seismology, told Kurdistan24's 11 a.m. news bulletin that the heaviest conditions were expected in eastern parts of the Region, particularly Garmian, Chamchamal, Sulaimani and Halabja.
He urged residents to follow official warnings, including advice to avoid travel in areas authorities identify as unsafe.
"The current weather system affecting the Kurdistan Region will be one of the stronger waves in the area," Ibrahim said. "Rainfall will intensify from this afternoon until noon on Sunday. In some areas, it will be highly beneficial for planting and the agricultural sector."
His forecast places the period of intensifying rainfall between Friday afternoon and Sunday, Nov. 8, with heightened warnings expected to remain relevant into early Monday, particularly in eastern districts.
Snow is also forecast in mountainous areas as a cold air mass approaches.
Ibrahim did not provide projected snowfall depths, rainfall totals for individual districts or a precise estimate of how much rain the system will deliver.
The meteorology chief said officials had been informed well in advance.
Three special forecast reports were sent to ministries and other relevant authorities 72 hours earlier, giving institutions time to prepare and take precautionary measures.
He asked the public to treat travel advisories seriously rather than regard the approaching system as routine seasonal rain.
The warning was particularly important for people planning to travel through locations specifically identified by meteorological officials.
An Early Start to the Rainy Season
Ibrahim also pointed to differences between the current rainy season and last year's.
Widespread rainfall began on Nov. 15 last year, he said, whereas this season's rains started in October.
He reported that rainfall had increased across the Kurdistan Region last year.
In Erbil, he said, the normal annual average is about 400 millimeters, while rainfall last year reached nearly 707 millimeters.
Based on meteorological forecasts, precipitation this year is also expected to exceed the annual norm.
That remains a projection rather than a final recorded total, and Ibrahim did not state by how much he expects the average to be exceeded.
The earlier start and prospect of substantial rainfall may be encouraging for farmers, particularly after periods when water shortages affected agriculture.
Ibrahim, however, emphasized the need for safety precautions alongside the potential benefits for planting.
Dams Overflow in Kifri
Signs of improved water availability have already emerged in Garmian. Bawa-Shaswar Dam in Kifri and Awa-Spi Dam between Kifri and Sangaw have begun overflowing following the first rainfall, according to local water officials.
Jabar Mahmoud, Director of Dams in Garmian, told Kurdistan24 that Bawa-Shaswar entered the rainy season with more water in storage than it had at the corresponding stage last year.
Officials had released only limited quantities through its main outlet during summer, allowing much of the reservoir's water to remain in place.
Consequently, rainfall north of Kifri was sufficient to push water above the dam's overflow level. Awa-Spi has likewise filled and begun overflowing, Mahmoud said.
Read More: Bawa-Shaswar and Awa-Spi Dams Overflow Following Rainfall in Kifri
The developments offer a positive indication of surface-water reserves, but they do not establish the likely impact of the incoming weather system on individual reservoirs.
Neither official provided a forecast for how much additional water the dams would receive.
For residents and farmers, the weekend brings both the possibility of replenished water resources and the need to heed warnings during heavy rainfall.
Meteorological authorities are particularly urging caution through early Monday in the eastern areas forecast to experience the strongest conditions.