Severe turbulence ahead, how climate change is shaking up air travel

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) - Climate change is not only increasing the frequency of heatwaves and hurricanes but is also making the atmosphere more turbulent, leading to bumpier flights.

This phenomenon was highlighted in a report by Nature.com on July 18, 2024, which explained how global warming is altering atmospheric behaviors and posing new challenges for aviation safety.

As Haoxuan Yu, a visiting PhD scholar in fluid mechanics at the University of Cambridge and a PhD candidate at Monash University Malaysia, experienced firsthand, sudden jolts from turbulent air can disrupt even the calmest flights.

Yu noted that while flying remains one of the safest modes of travel, the changing patterns of air turbulence due to climate change require more extensive research.

In May, a Singapore Airlines flight encountered severe turbulence over Myanmar, resulting in injuries to dozens of passengers and the tragic death of one individual. This incident underscores the increasing frequency of such events, attributed to the stormier air caused by global warming.

Yu emphasizes that climate change is affecting both horizontal and vertical temperature gradients in the atmosphere, which in turn impacts atmospheric stability and air movement patterns.

For instance, turbulence often occurs around jet streams, which are fast air currents driven by temperature differences between the Equator and the poles. As polar regions warm faster than tropical ones, the resulting changes in temperature gradients alter the behavior of jet streams, leading to more frequent and intense turbulence.

Additionally, vertical temperature gradients are being disrupted by climate change. Greenhouse gases trap heat in the lower layers of the atmosphere while cooling the stratosphere.

This creates larger temperature gradients, which can lead to more frequent and intense convection, resulting in stronger storms and more severe turbulence for planes flying near these areas.

Yu explains that global warming also increases the frequency and intensity of atmospheric oscillations known as gravity waves. These waves can generate strong vertical wind shear and interact with jet streams, leading to unpredictable weather patterns and more turbulence.

To address these challenges, Yu suggests action in three key areas.

First, scientists need to use computer simulations to gain a deeper understanding of the mechanisms of air turbulence and how they are affected by climate change. The increased frequency of turbulence-related incidents provides valuable data to refine these models.

Second, researchers should develop technologies for detecting and forecasting air turbulence. Lidar technology, which uses lasers instead of radio waves, can detect clear-air turbulence that conventional radar cannot.

However, current lidar systems are large and heavy, necessitating the development of more compact and cost-effective solutions. Additionally, satellites and meteorological technologies can provide real-time data on atmospheric conditions, which can be integrated into simulations to model turbulence along an aircraft’s path.

Third, artificial intelligence (AI) can be utilized to optimize predictive models. By training AI algorithms on extensive datasets of air turbulence, including meteorological data, aircraft sensor readings, historical flight records, and more, researchers can enhance the accuracy of predictions.

AI systems can also speed up computations, potentially enabling real-time turbulence predictions.

Yu concludes by emphasizing the importance of recognizing the impact of climate change on aviation. The Singapore Airlines incident serves as a wake-up call, highlighting the need for concerted efforts to ensure safer skies.

With research and innovation, it is possible to develop strategies and technologies that help flyers navigate through the stormier conditions caused by global warming.

As Nature.com reports, the invisible hand of global warming is stirring the atmosphere in unexpected ways, but with effort and ingenuity, smoother and safer air travel can be achieved.