Politics

Washington to Baghdad: We’ll Help Prevent Israeli Attack in Retaliation for Militia Strikes

“Two visits to Iran by Iraq’s top security officials in the past two months, seeking Tehran’s help to rein in its allied Iraqi factions, failed,” but the US said it would help deter any Israeli retaliatory strike.

Missile systems, the IRGC displayed in an annual armed force parade in September. (Photo: AP)
Missile systems, the IRGC displayed in an annual armed force parade in September. (Photo: AP)
USA avoid involvement in the conflict between Iran and Israel, Baghdad Iraqi federal government Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani Washington DC Washington-Baghdad Ties ISlamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) Kata’ib Hizbollah al-Nujaba IRGC KDP KDPs President Masoud Barzani

WASHINGTON DC, United States (Kurdistan 24) The Iraqi government is trying to avoid involvement in the conflict between Iran and Israel, Reuters reported on Thursday.

The story, reported out of Baghdad, explained that the government of Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani had tried to convince the so-called Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI), which Reuters described as “a coalition of Iran-backed armed groups” to act with greater consideration for the possible consequences of its attacks on Israel.

Iran Refuses to Rein in Militias

But the Iraqi government “has not been successful” in convincing the IRI “to stop firing rockets and drones at Israel,” Reuters continued, citing four sources within the IRI and two Iraqi government advisors. 

Only two groups are actually involved in those attacks: Kata’ib Hizbollah and Harakat Hizbollah al-Nujaba. Both groups are Shi’ite.

Kata’ib Hizbollah was established in 2003, following the U..S.-led overthrow of Saddam Hussein and his regime. Its first leader—Jamal Ja'far Muhammad Ali al Ibrahim, also known as Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis—had earlier worked with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) against Saddam.

But the new group soon became involved in attacking U.S. forces in Iraq, and in 2009 it was designated by the U.S. as a terrorist group. 

Al-Nujaba was established in 2013. Its original purpose was to support Iran’s ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, in Syria’s civil war. It, too, is closely aligned with the IRGC.

It is not clear what Katai’b Hizbollah and al-Nujaba really represent. After all, how many Iraqis actually support them and want to get involved in the conflict with Israel?

The Iraqi government, including the Shi’ites, certainly does not. 

“Shi’ite leaders discussed the risk of repercussions from attacks on Israel and possible Israeli retaliation during two meetings in October,” a Shi’ite lawmaker told Reuters.

“Key players in the Shi’ite coalition view direct confrontation with Israel as counterproductive and potentially damaging to Iraq,” four Shi’ite lawmakers explained.

“Those groups who have the rockets and the drones should go to Gaza and Lebanon to fight Israel, rather than pushing Iraq towards destruction,” Abdul Amir Thuaiban, an adviser to Prime Minister Sudani, strongly advised, as Reuters reported.

“Two visits to Iran by Iraq’s top security officials in the past two months, seeking Tehran’s help to rein in its allied Iraqi factions, failed,” Reuters said, quoting a senior Iraqi security official, who had been briefed on those visits.

“The Iraqi delegation received a cold reception in Tehran,” the Iraqi official said. Tehran claimed “those groups have their own decision, and it is their call to decide how to support their brothers in Lebanon and Gaza.”

Tehran’s claim that it has no influence is simply not credible. Both groups have a long history with the IRGC. They are heavily dependent on Tehran for the drones and other weapons they fire at Israel and their training on those weapons, as well as for their funding.

U.S. Says it Will Help

Twice rebuffed by Tehran, the Iraqi government “turned to Washington, asking U.S. officials to intervene with Israel to prevent retaliation for the attacks,” Reuters explained. Those attacks include an Oct. 4 assault that killed two Israeli soldiers and wounded over 20—the first time that an Iraqi militia strike caused Israeli casualties. 

“Washington was understanding of the repercussions of possible Israeli strikes in Iraq and pledged to help,” an Iraqi foreign ministry official told Reuters.

Kurdish Warnings 

Senior Kurdish officials have warned for some months of the danger that Iraq could be dragged into the war with Israel. 

In July, the long-time Kurdish leader, Masoud Barzani, now head of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), visited Baghdad for the first time in six years. Among Barzani’s key messages was a warning that the militias were seeking to drag Iraq into the war with Israel and Iraq had to stay out of it.

Read More: US Envoy Lauds Meeting with Masoud Barzani

Hoshyar Zebari, a long-time Kurdish opposition figure with the KDP, who became Iraq’s first post-Saddam Foreign Minister and then Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, has issued similar warnings.

Most recently, on Monday, following a visit to Erbil from Sudani’s National Security Adviser, Qasim al-Araji, Zebari issued an alarming tweet about the need for Baghdad to be tougher in dealing with both the militias and their Iranian sponsor “in order to create a sound path and an independent policy for our government and our national state.”

Renewed Iranian Threats 

On Saturday, Israel responded to a major attack that Iran had carried out against it on Oct. 1, over three weeks earlier. The long pause was due to coordination with Washington, which hoped that if Israel refrained from attacking sensitive targets, the armed exchanges between Israel and Iran could be brought to an end.

Israel did that, limiting its response to strikes on military targets, even as it did also demonstrate that it had the ability to circumvent Iran’s air defenses.

Tehran’s initial response was muted, and it seemed the Biden administration might have succeeded in its aim of dampening tensions and bringing the conflict to an end.

However, on Thursday, two senior Iranian officials made bellicose statements, suggesting that Tehran intended to carry out a retaliatory strike on Israel, as The New York Times reported.

“Three Iranian officials familiar with the war planning said Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had instructed the Supreme National Security Council on Monday to prepare for attacking Israel,” the Times said.

Khamenei had reviewed detailed military reports on “the extent of damage to Iran’s missile production capabilities and air defense systems around Tehran, critical energy infrastructure, and a main port in the south,” it said.

Khamenei decided that the extent of the damage was “too large to ignore” and “not responding would mean admitting defeat.”

However, Iran’s response will likely occur after the U.S. elections on Tuesday, the Times said, because Tehran is “concerned that another spike of tension and chaos in the region could benefit former President Donald J. Trump in his re-election campaign.”