Iran's Military Withdrawal: The Turning Point in Assad's Fall

Dec. 8, 2024

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) - The Syrians are engulfed in euphoric feelings following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s 24 years of brutal rule. However, it is crucial to understand the rapid changes that happened in past few days. 

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year regime has inspired widespread ecstasy across Syria, demonstrating a historic defining moment in Syria’s tumultuous years of civil war. 

The rapid downfall of Assad's control, catalyzed by Iran's military withdrawal and a decisive opposition forces’ offensive, indicated not only the end of an era but also a potential repositioning of power in the Middle East.

Iran's Withdrawal

Perhaps, the end of Bashar Assad’s rule was sealed following the evacuation of military personnel by Iran. 

As the New York Times reported on Dec. 6, some regional and three Iranian officials indicated that the evacuation began on Friday when military commanders and personnel left Syria.

This was arguably the last nail, as Iran was heavily involved in Syria and had a complete reading of the situation up close.

The New York Times also reported that among the evacuees, there were top Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force commanders who left Syria for Iraq and Lebanon.  

It was also reported that such a move was ordered by the Iranian Embassy in Damascus.

In another report on Dec. 7, the New York Times revealed that there might have been back-channel negotiations between the opposition forces in Syria and the Iranian military presence there.

“The three Iranian officials said that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the main rebel group advancing in Syria, sent Iran a private diplomatic message this week. The group promised that it would protect Shiite religious sites and Shiite minorities and asked Iran not to fight its forces,” the New York Times report suggested.

Opposition Forces' Offensive

A coalition of opposition forces, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched a surprise offensive, capturing major cities like Aleppo and Hama on Nov. 30 and Dec. 5 respectively, and advanced toward Damascus.

These forces seized large swaths of territory across four provinces, destabilizing Assad's control eventually.

Iran's Strategic Setback

According to the New York report, the withdrawal of forces denoted a noteworthy impediment for Iran, which had heavily reinforced Assad throughout the 13-year civil war and used Syria as a strategic route to supply Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The report revealed that the Iranian officials accepted that military operations to control the situation in Syria are no longer a practicable option.

Weakening of Assad’s Allies

It could also be said that the weakening of the key backers of Assad’s regime played a major role in his eventual downfall as these key allies—Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah— have been facing challenges of their own:

- Iran is preoccupied with its conflict with Israel.

- Russia’s resources are stretched thin due to its invasion of Ukraine.

- Hezbollah is weakened by its war with Israel.

Regional Balance of Power

In another report by the New York Times, it was also analyzed that the downfall of Assad's régime could have the potential to restructure the Middle East.

The report suggested that such an event would mean that “The “axis of resistance” that Iran has formed with its militant allies in Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Syria, Iraq and Yemen would be weakened.”

The reports by the New York Times underscored the extensive implications of Iran’s withdrawal from Syria on regional dynamics and its own geopolitical strategy.