Vote-Buying, Violence, and Volatility Mark Iraq’s Crucial Election

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) – In a nation perched precariously at the crossroads of regional volatility and profound domestic challenges, Iraq is just weeks away from a pivotal parliamentary election that will chart its course through what is being described as one of the most delicate moments the Middle East has faced in years.

As reported by the Associated Press, the November 11 vote comes as the country navigates a complex and treacherous landscape, still reeling from the aftershocks of the brief but intense Israel-Iran war in June and facing mounting pressure from Washington over the enduring and powerful presence of Iran-linked armed groups on its soil.

For Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who is seeking a rare second term, the election is a critical test of his pragmatic, service-oriented approach and his ability to maintain a delicate and often fraught balancing act between the competing interests of Tehran and Washington.

The election, which will see 7,768 candidates—including 2,248 women—compete for 329 seats in the Council of Representatives, is unfolding in a regional atmosphere still charged with tension.

While a recently brokered ceasefire in Gaza has tamped down the immediate threat of a wider conflagration, the fear of another round of direct conflict between Israel and Iraq's powerful neighbor, Iran, remains a palpable concern.

Iraq, a nation that has for two decades been an arena for the proxy conflicts of others, managed to remain on the sidelines during the June war, a feat of diplomatic dexterity that Prime Minister al-Sudani is likely hoping to build upon.

However, the internal political dynamics, heavily influenced by powerful armed factions with allegiances to Tehran, make this balancing act a continuous and perilous challenge.

A Contest Defined by Absences and Divisions

The slate of candidates and parties competing in the election is a familiar tableau of Iraq's post-2003 political order.

The strongest contenders include powerful Shiite blocs led by influential figures like former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and cleric Ammar al-Hakim, as well as several factions directly linked to armed groups.

In the Sunni political arena, a fierce competition is underway between factions led by the former parliament speaker, Mohammed al-Halbousi, and the current speaker, Mahmoud al-Mashhadani.

Meanwhile, in the Kurdistan Region, the two dominant political forces, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), are once again set to be the primary standard-bearers for the Kurdish electorate.

However, the 2025 electoral contest is just as notable for who is absent from the ballot as for who is on it.

The most significant of these absences is the Sadrist Movement, the powerful political and social force led by the influential and often mercurial Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.

Al-Sadr's bloc emerged as the single largest winner in the 2021 elections, but after months of failed and acrimonious negotiations to form a government, he ordered his entire parliamentary bloc to resign, a dramatic move that plunged the country into a prolonged political crisis.

His movement has continued its boycott of the formal political process, and its absence from this election leaves a significant vacuum in the Shiite political landscape, with the potential for both voter apathy among his millions of followers and a consolidation of power by his Iran-aligned rivals.

The sentiment of his supporters is clear on the streets of Sadr City, a Baghdad suburb and a bastion of his support, where banners proclaim, "We are all boycotting upon orders from leader al-Sadr. No to America, no to Israel, no to corruption."

Another notable boycott comes from the Al-Nasr (Victory) Alliance, a smaller group led by former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, who has also cited allegations of corruption in the electoral process as his reason for staying out.

At the same time, the reformist and independent groups that emerged from the massive, youth-led anti-government protest movement that began in October 2019 are struggling to gain a foothold.

While some are participating in the elections, they have been largely bogged down by internal divisions, a chronic lack of funding, and the absence of a unified political support structure, making it difficult for them to compete with the entrenched and well-financed traditional parties.

An Election Marred by 'Political Money' and Violence

This election cycle has been plagued by widespread and persistent allegations of corruption and rampant vote-buying, a practice that threatens to undermine the integrity of the democratic process.

Political analyst Bassem al-Qazwini, speaking to the Associated Press, described these elections in stark terms as "the most exploited since 2003 in terms of political money and state resources."

A campaign official, who spoke to the AP on the condition of anonymity to discuss the alleged illegal conduct, asserted that the practice is endemic across the political spectrum.

He claimed that "almost all candidates, including major blocs, are distributing money and buying voter cards," with the price for a single voter card reportedly reaching as high as 300,000 Iraqi dinars, or approximately $200.

In response to these serious allegations, Iraq's Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) has asserted its commitment to a fair and transparent process.

In a statement to the Associated Press, the IHEC said that "strict measures have been taken to monitor campaign spending and curb vote-buying" and warned that any candidate found guilty of such violations will be "immediately disqualified."

More alarmingly, the campaign has been marred by a return to the dark specter of political violence.

On October 15, Safaa al-Mashhadani, a member of the Baghdad Provincial Council and a Sunni candidate running in the al-Tarmiya district north of the capital, was assassinated by a car bomb.

The First Karkh Investigative Court announced on Thursday that two suspects had been arrested in connection with the killing, stating that the crime was believed to be "related to electoral competition."

The assassination sent a chill through the political establishment, with Aisha Ghazal Al-Masari, a member of parliament from the same Sovereignty Alliance as al-Mashhadani, describing the killing as "a cowardly crime reminiscent of the dark days of assassinations" that followed the 2003 U.S.-led invasion.

The Power of the Militias

A central and defining feature of this election is the significant and overt participation of political parties that are directly linked to powerful, Iran-backed militias.

These groups, including the Kataib Hezbollah militia with its Harakat Huqouq (Rights Movement) political bloc, and the Sadiqoun Bloc, led by Qais al-Khazali, the leader of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq militia, are leveraging their considerable military and financial influence to compete for parliamentary power.

These groups are part of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a coalition of militias that was originally formed to fight the Islamic State group.

While the PMF was formally placed under the control of the Iraqi military in 2016, in practice many of its most powerful factions continue to operate with a significant degree of autonomy, often pursuing agendas that align more closely with Tehran than with Baghdad.

Prime Minister al-Sudani, who himself came to power with the backing of a coalition of these pro-Iran parties, has defended their right to participate in the political process.

He recently told journalists that armed factions that have transformed into political entities have a constitutional right to run in elections.

"We cannot prevent any group from engaging in politics if they renounce arms. This is a step in the right direction," he said.

The glaring issue, however, is that several of the militias with affiliated political parties on the ballot are still very much active and heavily armed, a reality that deeply concerns Washington.

In a recent phone call with al-Sudani, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio "highlighted the urgency in disarming Iran-backed militias that undermine Iraq’s sovereignty, threaten the lives and businesses of Americans and Iraqis, and pilfer Iraqi resources for Iran," according to a U.S. State Department statement.

Al-Sudani's Quest for a Second Term

Against this complex and challenging backdrop, Prime Minister al-Sudani is campaigning on a platform of pragmatism and a focus on improving long-neglected public services.

This approach appears to be resonating with a significant portion of the Iraqi public, who are weary of ideological conflict and desperate for tangible improvements in their daily lives.

Recent polling from Al-Mustakella Research Group, an affiliate of Gallup International, has shown a notable shift in public sentiment.

Over the past two years, for the first time since 2004, more than half of Iraqis polled believed the country was heading in the right direction. A poll in early 2025 found that 55% of Iraqis had confidence in the central government.

However, a positive public approval rating is no guarantee of a second term in Iraq's complex, consensus-based political system. Since 2003, only one prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, has successfully served more than one term.

As Ihsan al-Shammari, a professor at Baghdad University, explained to the Associated Press, the premiership "does not depend solely on election results but on political bloc agreements and regional and international understandings."

He noted that recent disagreements between al-Sudani and some of the leaders of the Shiite Coordination Framework—the very bloc that brought him to power—"may hinder his chances of a second term."

For many ordinary Iraqis, the political maneuvering and electoral promises hold little appeal. Years of broken promises have bred a deep and pervasive cynicism.

"What happened with regards to electricity from 2003 until now? Nothing," said Baghdad resident Saif Ali, explaining his decision not to vote. "What happened with water? Drought has reached Baghdad. These are the basic services, and they are not available, so what is the point of elections?"

It is this profound sense of disillusionment that may prove to be the biggest challenge of all in Iraq's delicate and pivotal moment.