Israeli Intelligence Shifts Focus to Iraq as Regional Risks Multiply

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) – Senior Israeli military sources have warned that Iran is pouring significant resources into its proxy militias in Iraq, transforming the country into a potential launchpad for sophisticated attacks against the Israeli home front. According to a detailed report from the leading Israeli news website Walla, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the Mossad intelligence agency are now actively preparing for a "developing threat" from Iraq, a scenario that includes not only long-range missile and drone strikes but also the once-unthinkable possibility of a ground maneuver through Syria aimed at Israel's Jordanian border.

This alarming analysis, attributed to sources in Israel's Northern Command, comes just as the United States signals a newly assertive posture toward countering Iranian influence in Iraq.

The recent appointment of a new U.S. Special Envoy, Mark Savaya, with a clear mandate to restore Iraqi sovereignty and curb the power of "malign external interference," has set the stage for a potential showdown with the very same Iran-backed militias that are now the focus of Israel's growing concern.

The convergence of these two developments suggests that Iraq is rapidly becoming a central and highly contested arena in the broader strategic competition between the U.S.-Israel axis and the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Tehran's Iraqi Arsenal: A Two-Pronged Threat

According to the Walla report, the Israeli defense establishment is gaming out two primary threat vectors emanating from Iraq. The most prominent and immediate danger is the launching of missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) from Iraqi territory, a tactic that was employed by various militias during the "Swords of Iron War."

These attacks, often claimed by shadowy groups to obscure their direct links to more established factions, demonstrated the capability of these militias to strike targets deep within Israel, a threat similar in nature to that posed by the Houthis in Yemen.

The second, and perhaps more alarming, potential course of action is a ground maneuver. The scenario envisioned by Israeli planners involves a force originating in Iraq, moving through the porous and chaotic landscape of Syria, and then potentially advancing toward the long and historically quiet Israel-Jordan border.

The report notes that this very scenario has already been the subject of military exercises by the IDF's Eastern Division in the Jordan Valley, indicating that it is being treated as a credible and serious contingency.

The concern over this growing threat is being fueled by high-level activity on the ground.

The Walla report confirms that the commander of Iran's elite Quds Force, Ismail Qaani, recently visited Iraq and met with senior militia leaders. Such visits are typically seen as a sign of strategic coordination and operational planning, reinforcing the Israeli assessment that Iran is actively investing in and directing its Iraqi proxies for potential action against Israel.

The Axis of Proxies: Kata'ib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba

At the heart of Iran's network in Iraq, according to the Israeli analysis, is Kata'ib Hezbollah. The Walla report identifies this group as the "strongest and most influential" of the pro-Iranian militias, operating under the direct patronage of the Quds Force.

While it is officially part of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), the state-sanctioned umbrella organization for armed militias, Kata'ib Hezbollah is distinguished by its deep political influence and its advanced arsenal, which includes long-range UAVs.

The group has a long history of targeting U.S. forces in the region and is also responsible for significant smuggling routes that funnel weapons and other illicit materials from Iraq into Syria, a critical logistical artery for Iran's regional network.

Another militia that has become a source of "growing concern" for Israel is Harakat al-Nujba. The report describes this group as an "extremely extremist Shiite militia" that maintains close ties with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

It has previously claimed responsibility for several rocket and drone launches against Israel, positioning itself as a key player in the "axis of resistance" and a willing participant in any future conflict.

During previous rounds of hostilities, Israel has not hesitated to act against these threats.

The Walla report notes that, according to foreign publications, the Israeli Air Force, with assistance from the Mossad, has conducted attacks in the region to deter both the militias and the Iraqi government. It also states that "clear and threatening messages" were transmitted from Israel to Baghdad through American mediation, indicating a direct line of communication regarding the activities of these groups on Iraqi soil.

Israel's "Operation Rising Lion," the report mentions, specifically targeted logistics centers in Iran near the Iraqi border that were being used by these militias, demonstrating a willingness to strike at the source of their support.

Washington's New Man in Baghdad and the "MAKE IRAQ GREAT AGAIN" Doctrine

The growing Israeli concern over Iran's activities in Iraq coincides with a significant shift in American policy, heralded by the appointment of Mark Savaya as the new U.S. Special Envoy.

Savaya, a Detroit-area entrepreneur of Chaldean-Iraqi heritage with deep personal and political ties to President Donald Trump, issued a powerful inaugural statement on Friday, as reported by Kurdistan24, declaring his mission to guide Iraq toward full sovereignty and explicitly vowing to counter "malign external interference, including from Iran and its proxies."

His statement, which concluded with the Trumpian slogan "MAKE IRAQ GREAT AGAIN," laid out a clear blueprint for a more assertive American posture.

“The United States Government has made it clear that there is no place for armed groups operating outside the authority of the state,” Savaya declared, directly challenging the legitimacy of the very militias that are now preoccupying the IDF and Mossad.

He explicitly linked Iraq's stability and prosperity to the establishment of "unified security forces under the command of a single government," a direct rebuke to the parallel security structures maintained by the Iran-backed factions.

The new envoy's mission is expected to involve a multi-pronged strategy to dismantle what is often termed Iraq’s “shadow economy”—a network of banks, companies, and financial actors allegedly used to evade American sanctions and sustain Iranian proxy groups.

By leveraging his business background, Savaya is expected to prioritize economic statecraft, pushing for greater financial transparency and promoting Iraq's energy independence to reduce its reliance on Iranian gas and electricity.

The convergence of Israel's heightened military preparedness and Washington's new, assertive diplomatic posture creates a volatile and unpredictable new dynamic. While Israel is preparing for a potential military confrontation originating from Iraqi soil, the United States is embarking on a political and economic campaign to neutralize the very groups that pose this threat.

The success or failure of Savaya's mission to "Make Iraq Great Again" by restoring its sovereignty will have direct and profound implications for Israel's security calculations. If the U.S. succeeds in helping the Iraqi state assert its monopoly on the use of force, the threat from the militias could be contained.

If, however, these groups feel their power and influence being existentially threatened by American pressure, they could lash out, potentially making the Israeli military's worst-case scenarios a reality. For now, all eyes are on Iraq, a country that has become the central and most critical front in a looming regional showdown.