Middle East on the Brink: Drought Fuels Historic Environmental and Geopolitical Crisis

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) – The Middle East, a region historically defined by scarcity of water, now stands at the edge of a catastrophic environmental and geopolitical turning point. What was once a challenge of climate and geography has evolved into a multidimensional crisis — a convergence of drought, mismanagement, and political tension threatening the region’s survival itself.

For decades, the region’s rivers and aquifers have been drying under the combined weight of climate change and human mismanagement. Scientists confirm that rising global temperatures have dramatically intensified drought cycles, while reduced rainfall and excessive evaporation have pushed groundwater and surface water reserves to record lows.

At the same time, poor governance of water resources — from over-extraction of aquifers to the politically motivated construction of dams on transboundary rivers such as the Tigris and Euphrates — has turned water into a tool of political leverage. Turkey’s major dam projects have sharply decreased water flows into Iraq and Syria, deepening agricultural and humanitarian crises downstream.

Across the region, water is no longer merely a resource — it is becoming a weapon of influence and survival.

Nowhere is this crisis more visible than in Iran, where the capital city of Tehran is days away from running out of drinking water. In a stunning admission, the state-run IRNA agency warned that water reserves at the Amir Kabir Dam, one of Tehran’s five main sources, have fallen to just 14 million cubic meters — barely 8 percent of capacity — enough to supply the city for “less than two weeks.”

“This is the worst drought in decades,” said Behzad Parsa, the director of Tehran’s water company, adding that rainfall has fallen by nearly 100 percent this year compared to seasonal averages.

The crisis has already reached urban life. In multiple neighborhoods, authorities have resorted to cutting off water entirely to ration supplies. In August, more than 20,000 public restrooms were closed, while rolling power and water outages led the government to declare two emergency public holidays in an effort to stabilize consumption.

President Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledged the severity of the situation, warning that “the water crisis is more serious than what is being discussed today.”

But beneath the immediate drought lies a deeper ecological breakdown. Years of over-pumping groundwater have triggered land subsidence across Iran. Satellite data shows that the Dehgolan plain has sunk between 12 and 32 centimeters over the past decade, with parts of Sine (Sanandaj) now registering groundwater drops of up to 36 meters.

“The phenomenon of land subsidence has reached a dangerous level,” warned Behzad Sharifi Pour, head of Sine’s natural resources department. “If this continues, it will cause severe damage to buildings, roads, and vital infrastructure.”

Though not immune to the severe drought affecting the region, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq has avoided the worst of its impacts. Through proactive water governance and significant investment in dam infrastructure and other water projects, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has built an effective buffer against the crisis.

In the Akre district, farmers continue to irrigate vineyards and fig orchards despite the dry season — made possible by 41 dams and ponds built by the KRG in recent years.

“If it were not for this dam, our trees and gardens would have died this year,” said farmer Fawzi Taha. Another farmer, Salih Mohammed, noted that over 100,000 farmers have benefited from these initiatives.

The Akre Water Project, set for completion in late 2026, will pump water from the Great Zab River to more than 40 villages, ensuring a steady supply of drinking and irrigation water.

This program forms part of a broader vision by the KRG to secure sustainable water management, with eight major dams already completed — holding over 160 million cubic meters of water — and 24 more scheduled this year.

Altogether, these projects are designed to collect up to three billion cubic meters of water annually, safeguarding the future of agriculture and rural livelihoods across the Kurdistan Region.

The escalating drought is not only reshaping landscapes but also the balance of power in the Middle East. As nations turn to rivers and dams as instruments of political influence, water has become a new frontier of regional competition.

Yet amid the crisis, Kurdistan stands as a rare case of foresight — proving that investment, planning, and technological innovation can transform scarcity into sustainability.