SDF-Coalition raids lead to decrease in ISIS attacks in northeast Syria: report

ERBIL (Kurdistan 24) – The number of attacks claimed by the Islamic State (ISIS) group in Syria hit a record low in recent weeks, new data from the Syria-based Rojava Information Center (RIC) shows. 

A total of 12 sleeper attacks were carried out in that region recently, approximately the same number carried out in July. However, only two of these latest attacks were claimed by ISIS, which is a record low, the RIC report said.

"The attacks resulted in 12 deaths, including a child in Al-Ahmar in Deir ez-Zor who was shot by a gunman," the RIC said.

Six of the attacks were carried out in the notorious al-Hol camp, killing eight people. Al-Hol also saw four raids that resulted in eight arrests.

"Across Northeast Syria, the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) Asayish conducted 17 raids (including in al-Hol) resulting in 89 arrests," the report added.

Clara Moore, a Syria-based researcher at the Rojava Information Center (RIC), told Kurdistan 24 that a "substantial increase in SDF and Coalition raids likely contributed to the decrease in ISIS-claimed attacks this month." 

"It's important to keep the decrease in context though; it's part of a larger security trend in the region," she said. "Attacks from ISIS and other groups halved every month from May to July." 

However, although this seems encouraging on the surface, she added, "it remains to be seen whether the trend will continue into the fall. The security situation in the region is precarious."

She also pointed out that ISIS did not claim any of the murders in al-Hol. 

"If these were indeed ISIS attacks, and not copy-cat murders carried out by others, this could be due to ISIS changing media strategy, or a disruption in their media team," she said. "Either way, the number of murders has stayed low in the camp compared to earlier this summer."

Although the SDF and the coalition announced the territorial defeat of ISIS in Syria in March 2019, sleeper cell attacks persist in what appears to be a deliberate campaign to destabilize northeastern parts of the nation, primarily in cities, towns, and rural tracts of land once under the terrorist group's control.

The coalition and the SDF have had success in reducing ISIS sleeper cell activity in northeast Syria due to their continued cooperation in the area.

Other reports also confirm this. In a recent piece, Ido Levy, an associate fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, pointed out that the August 12 edition of the ISIS newsletter al-Naba did not mention any attacks on the SDF. Instead, it only referred to attacks the group claimed against the Syrian government.

Levy cited data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), which documented 624 fatalities caused by ISIS attacks in Syria through July 28. Out of these, 72 percent were among pro-Assad forces and only 7 percent among the SDF forces. 

"Pro-regime forces regularly sustain double-digit casualties in clashes with IS, yet the SDF has never sustained more than four," he wrote. "This disparity is a function of effective SDF-coalition coordination in counterterrorism operations targeting key IS figures." 

Last Saturday, the SDF said that anti-terror forces arrested 30 ISIS suspects in Hasakah's countryside.

In a tweet, the spokesman for the US-led coalition Col. Wayne Marotto said that these captured were a direct result of the "outstanding cooperation between our SDF partners and Coalition soldiers. 

"Together, we share a resolve to deny Daesh (ISIS) remnants sanctuaries and keep them on the run," he added.