Iraq Eyes Water Breakthrough as Turkish Foreign Minister Visits Amid Shifting Security Landscape

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) – In a high-stakes diplomatic mission set against a rapidly shifting regional security landscape, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is scheduled to arrive in Baghdad on Sunday for a series of critical talks expected to test the limits of a burgeoning partnership, with Iraqi officials expressing cautious optimism that a breakthrough on the life-or-death issue of water flows could finally be at hand.

The visit, which comes just three weeks after a high-level Iraqi delegation met with Fidan in Ankara, is laden with a complex agenda covering everything from counterterrorism and energy cooperation to the monumental "Development Road" project.

However, it is the shadow of a changing security dynamic, following the Kurdistan Workers' Party's (PKK) recent announcement of a full withdrawal from Turkish territory, and Baghdad's new, assertive use of economic leverage that has imbued this visit with a particular sense of urgency and consequence.

The intensification of high-level contacts between Ankara and Baghdad throughout 2025 has been remarkable, signaling a concerted effort by both nations to move beyond historical points of friction and forge a new era of strategic cooperation.

This momentum was powerfully demonstrated during Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to Iraq in April 2024, a diplomatic flurry that resulted in the signing of 27 agreements and memoranda of understanding across a vast spectrum of fields, including security, trade, transboundary waters, and transport.

This was followed by Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s official visit to Türkiye in May of this year, which culminated in the signing of another 11 documents.

Fidan's visit on Sunday is intended to build upon this foundation. According to Turkish diplomatic sources cited by the Anadolu Agency (AA), the Foreign Minister is expected to hold bilateral meetings with senior Iraqi officials, where he will express Ankara's satisfaction with the rapid progress in relations and underline Türkiye’s support for efforts to strengthen stability, security, and prosperity in Iraq.

 With Iraq’s parliamentary elections just over a week away, on November 11, Fidan is also expected to convey Türkiye’s hope that the process will be held peacefully and produce the best outcome for the Iraqi people.

The Politics of Water: A New Era of Economic Leverage

While the agenda is broad, for Baghdad, one issue towers above all others in its critical importance: water. Years of crippling water scarcity, exacerbated by climate change and upstream dam construction in neighboring countries, have had a devastating impact on Iraq's agriculture, environment, and social stability.

In a significant development, Iraqi officials now believe they have a new and powerful tool in their negotiations with Ankara to secure the nation's water rights.

Turhan al-Mufti, the Prime Minister's Advisor for Water Affairs, confirmed in a recent interview with Al-Iraqiya News Channel, as reported by the Iraqi News Agency (INA), that for the first time in its history, Iraq is utilizing its economic tools in its water negotiations.

He explained that previous agreements, such as the 1946 Good Neighborliness Agreement with Türkiye, lacked clear provisions regarding specific water quotas. However, the 2024 Framework Water Agreement, signed by the Iraqi Prime Minister and the Turkish President during the latter's visit to Baghdad, represented the "first practical step towards negotiating water releases by using economic leverage as an effective pressure tactic."

This new approach is born from a stark reality. Al-Mufti detailed the complex external and internal factors driving the crisis, explaining that climate change has led to a decrease in rainfall in the Tigris and Euphrates basins by as much as 60%.

This scarcity in upstream countries necessitates what he termed "sharing the burden," as both Türkiye and Iran retain a share of river water before releasing the remainder to Iraq, thus magnifying the impact on the downstream nation. Internally, the crisis is exacerbated by encroachments on rivers, including the proliferation of illegal pumps and agriculture outside of official plans.

It is with this new economic leverage—underpinned by a booming trade relationship and strategic infrastructure projects—that Baghdad is now pressing for concrete commitments.

Al-Mufti expressed hope that Fidan's visit would yield a tangible result, confirming that a commitment was made during meetings in Türkiye on October 10 to immediately release one billion cubic meters of water—half a billion towards the Tigris and half towards the Euphrates, in addition to daily releases. 

He expressed his hope that "tomorrow's meetings during Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's visit to Baghdad will yield positive results that strengthen the agreement and guarantee the implementation of the releases."

From Ankara's perspective, Fidan is expected to reiterate that Türkiye approaches water issues from a humanitarian perspective, viewing transboundary waters as an area of cooperation. He will likely stress Türkiye’s readiness for technical cooperation and contributions to infrastructure projects to ensure sustainable water use in Iraq, while emphasizing that the efficient use of these shared resources is a responsibility for all basin countries.

The outcome of Sunday's talks will reveal whether Baghdad's new economic diplomacy can translate Ankara's cooperative rhetoric into the measurable flow of water that Iraq so desperately needs.

The Shadow of the PKK: A New Security Equation

While water and economic projects form the cooperative backbone of the visit, Fidan’s agenda is also heavily weighted with security concerns, an issue that has been thrown into a complex new light by a dramatic and potentially game-changing development just days ago.

On Sunday, Oct. 26, the Kurdistan Communities Union (KCK), the umbrella organization that includes the PKK, announced that it had initiated the withdrawal of all its forces from within the borders of Türkiye.

This momentous decision, framed as a "new practical step" in the evolving peace process set in motion by the group's imprisoned leader, Abdullah Öcalan, marks the most significant military de-escalation in the four-decade conflict.

As previously reported by Kurdistan24, the announcement was made at a press conference in the Qandil Mountains, where KCK executive council member Sabri Ok stated that, by Öcalan's order, they had "begun the step of withdrawing those forces of ours from Türkiye that are in front of the potential danger of clashes."

The move is the culmination of a peace initiative that began in earnest in February 2025 with Öcalan's call to end the armed struggle, and was followed by a symbolic disarmament ceremony in the Kurdistan Region in July.

This development creates a fascinating and delicate subtext for Fidan's visit. The Turkish Foreign Minister is expected to praise Iraq’s support for the "terror-free Türkiye" initiative. However, the PKK's withdrawal, while removing its fighters from Turkish soil, effectively consolidates its presence in the mountainous regions of the Kurdistan Region.

This raises a critical and unavoidable question: how does this mass relocation of PKK fighters into Iraqi territory square with the "terror-free" concept that Ankara is promoting in its discussions with Baghdad?

The KCK has explicitly linked its withdrawal to a demand for reciprocal steps from the Turkish state, calling for the immediate enactment of "laws related to necessary freedom and democratic integration" to allow for participation in democratic politics.

Ankara, which welcomed the withdrawal as a "tangible outcome," has its own set of expectations. Fidan's visit will be the first high-level opportunity for Turkish officials to publicly address this new reality with their Iraqi counterparts.

Will Ankara view the withdrawal as a positive de-escalation and a victory for its security policies, or will it increase pressure on Baghdad to take action against the now-concentrated PKK presence within its borders?

The discussions on counterterrorism on Sunday will be watched with intense interest, as they could signal the future direction of Turkish security policy in Iraq in this new and unprecedented phase.

Economic Interdependence and Grand Visions

Underpinning these complex security and resource negotiations is a powerful and growing economic interdependence.

As of September, the bilateral trade volume for 2025 had already reached approximately $12 billion, with Turkish exports to Iraq accounting for nearly $8.68 billion, making Iraq one of Türkiye’s most crucial trade partners. This strong economic relationship provides the context for the grand strategic projects that are set to be a major focus of Fidan's talks.

Chief among these is the Development Road Project, a monumental infrastructure initiative designed to connect the Grand Faw Port in southern Iraq to Türkiye and, by extension, to Europe, creating a new and vital trade corridor between Asia and the West.

Fidan is expected to highlight this project, in which Türkiye sees itself as a "natural stakeholder," as a cornerstone of future regional prosperity.

The visit also comes on the heels of another positive development in the energy sector. The resumption of operations on the Iraq-Türkiye Oil Pipeline in September, after a prolonged halt, was hailed by Ankara as a positive step for both energy supply security and bilateral trade.

According to AA, Fidan is expected to reiterate that Türkiye stands ready to sign a comprehensive new agreement with Iraq to realize the full potential of their cooperation in the energy field.

Finally, the agenda will also cover broader regional issues, including the fragile security environment in the aftermath of the Gaza ceasefire and the importance of joint efforts to strengthen Syria’s unity and territorial integrity.

Fidan is expected to welcome Baghdad’s security steps in Syria, particularly its efforts to repatriate its citizens from camps and detention facilities in the country's northeast, a move Ankara sees as contributing significantly to Syria's security.

As Hakan Fidan prepares to land in Baghdad, he arrives for a visit that is far more than a routine diplomatic exchange. It is a moment of immense opportunity and significant risk, a chance to solidify a new strategic partnership built on shared economic interests, or to expose the deep and lingering fault lines over water and security that have long defined the complex relationship between these two powerful neighbors.