Ceasefire In Name, War in Practice: What We Know About the Iran-US Ceasefire

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) - Diplomatic efforts led by Pakistan produced a two-week ceasefire agreement between Iran and the United States on Tuesday. On Wednesday, however, active fighting across the region confirmed that the truce remained largely symbolic, with little observable impact on the ground.

Israel launched its largest attacks yet on Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah without warning, destroying buildings and killing hundreds, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. Iran said it was considering strikes against Israel in response. And the Strait of Hormuz — the waterway whose reopening sits at the very heart of the ceasefire agreement — remained effectively closed.

Iran strikes Gulf oil infrastructure

Even as the ceasefire was being announced, Iran struck oil facilities in neighboring Gulf countries, including a major pipeline in Saudi Arabia that had been used to bypass the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, according to an oil industry source. Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE also reported missile and drone strikes.

Is the Strait of Hormuz open?

Not yet. Iranian state television reported that a first vessel had transited the global oil chokepoint with Tehran's permission following the ceasefire, but shipping sources said the Iranian navy was threatening ships with destruction if they attempted to pass without authorization. A senior Iranian official said the blockade may be lifted on Thursday or Friday ahead of peace talks, though ships would still require Tehran's permission to pass.

The question of who controls the strait lies at the core of a dispute between Washington and Tehran. Trump said the two-week ceasefire requires Iran to open the strait, but Iran's Supreme National Security Council said Washington had agreed in principle to continued Iranian control over passage through it. Marine traffic data showed two Greek-owned vessels and a Chinese bulk carrier had passed through the strait since early Wednesday. Iran has previously made safe-passage agreements with several countries, including India and Iraq. German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd said it could take at least six weeks for traffic to return to pre-war levels.

Oil prices falling, but not to pre-war levels

Oil prices fell below $100 per barrel following the ceasefire announcement, as traders anticipated that the roughly 20% of world supply throttled by the conflict could become available again. That represents a dramatic drop from prices that reached as high as $118 per barrel at the end of March. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was trading at $94 per barrel on Wednesday, compared to $70.75 before the conflict began on Feb. 28. The US West Texas Intermediate benchmark stood at $95, compared to $65 before the war. Prices could spike again if fighting resumes or Iran maintains its blockade. The US Energy Information Administration noted that broader uncertainty about future disruptions may also keep prices elevated.

Will peace talks succeed?

That remains deeply unclear. Both Iran and the United States are claiming victory, but they enter the Islamabad talks with starkly different agendas. Iran is demanding an end to all fighting across the region, including Lebanon; the withdrawal of all US forces from the region; the lifting of international sanctions; the right to continue enriching uranium; and continued control over the Strait of Hormuz. The United States, for its part, is calling on Iran to halt uranium enrichment and remove its existing stockpiles; curb its ballistic missile program and cut off funding for its regional allies, among other demands.

The gap between those positions is vast — and the two weeks ahead will determine whether the ceasefire becomes a foundation for peace or merely a pause before the next escalation.