‘If Kremlin won’t be stopped here, next are Baltic states and Poland’: Security Expert

“It is hard to find full unity within the NATO allies; Germany, Italy, Hungary, and Cyprus are blocking the cutting off Russia from SWIFT.”
Lukas Andriukaitis at the annual DFRLab's 360/OS event in Berlin, 2018. (Photo: Lukas Andriukaitis)
Lukas Andriukaitis at the annual DFRLab's 360/OS event in Berlin, 2018. (Photo: Lukas Andriukaitis)

ERBIL (Kurdistan 24) - In an exclusive interview with Kurdistan 24, Lukas Andriukaitis, Associate Director at the American Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab), discussed the political and economic consequences of Russian’s invasion for the world.

“If Kremlin won’t be stopped here, next are Baltic states and Poland.”

Q: We’ve all heard the reasons Vladimir Putin’s has given for invading Ukraine. What do you think is the real reason behind this unprecedented invasion? 

A: Russia has been preparing for this for quite some time. Kremlin sees the former Soviet Union states as its sphere of influence. The strategy first was to create frozen conflicts in Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine to keep them from drifting to EU and NATO. As this proved to work out with Georgia and Moldova, it hasn’t stopped Ukraine from aligning itself with the west. This can be seen as a Russian last-ditch attempt to drag Ukraine into its sphere of influence. If Kremlin won’t be stopped here, next are Baltic states and Poland.

Read More: Biden: Putin has grander ambitions than Ukraine

Ukrainian servicemen get ready to repel an attack in Ukraine’s Lugansk region, Feb. 24, 2022. (Photo: Anatolii Stepanov/AFP)
Ukrainian servicemen get ready to repel an attack in Ukraine’s Lugansk region, Feb. 24, 2022. (Photo: Anatolii Stepanov/AFP)

“Putin’s goal is to destroy the political backbone of the country and to install a puppet regime.”

Do you think Putin aims to completely annex Ukraine?  What is his endgame?

That is his ideal scenario. His goal is to break Ukrainian resistance, destroy the political backbone of the country, and install a puppet regime. If that does not work, he will try to split Ukraine in half, similarly to Germany post-WWII. He aims to erase Ukraine off the political map.

Read More: Russian offensive exceeds US expectations

“It is hard to find full unity within the NATO allies; Germany, Italy, Hungary, and Cyprus are blocking the cutting off Russia from SWIFT.”

Why do you think the world, including NATO, EU, and the US, weren’t able to deter this Russian invasion? Should they have acted differently in the run-up to this invasion? 

The main reason is the lack of political decisiveness. It is hard to find full unity within the NATO allies, especially when it comes to harsh economic sanctions. Even after the invasion, Germany, Italy, Hungary, and Cyprus are blocking the cutting off of Russia from SWIFT. The sanctions are not nearly as harsh to cripple Russian economy, not nearly as many weapons were provided to Ukraine as needed, not nearly enough has been done. This is a huge failure for the West and if nothing is going to be done to stop this, an actual European conflict, including NATO members, could start.

A soldier walks along Ukrainian armored vehicles blocking a street in Kyiv, Feb. 26, 2022. (Photo: Efrem Lukatsky/AP)
A soldier walks along Ukrainian armored vehicles blocking a street in Kyiv, Feb. 26, 2022. (Photo: Efrem Lukatsky/AP)

“I suspect that if Russia will not be taken off SWIFT, this will not change its expansive decisions.”

Do you think the economic sanctions that EU states and the US talk about will have any profound impact on Russia and its expansive ambitions in eastern Europe?

At this moment, I see no signs of the sanctions having an effect. I suspect that if Russia will not be taken off SWIFT, this will not change its expansive decisions. I am sorry to say this, but current sanctions thrown at Russia are laughable.

“European Union is trying to establish a system to acquire gas on a European Union level, to buy it centralized.”

Do you think the EU states can give up Russian gas and find alternatives in the short-term future (such as Qatar or even the Kurdistan Region)? What are some of the other options other than Russian gas for Europe?

Yes, and some moves have been made in the right direction. The European Union is trying to establish a system to acquire gas on a European Union level, to buy it centralized. Additionally, possibilities to supply Europe via LNG terminals are being analyzed. This might take some time, but with the right political determination, this can be done. Some European countries, such as Poland and Lithuania, have been buying gas from USA and Norway for some time now.

Read More: NATO activates Rapid Response Force, as Ukrainians fight invasion, and US rejects Russian ‘diplomatic’ overtures

A view of a high-rise apartment block, which was hit by recent shelling in Kyiv, Feb. 26, 2022. (Photo: Genya Savilov/AFP)
A view of a high-rise apartment block, which was hit by recent shelling in Kyiv, Feb. 26, 2022. (Photo: Genya Savilov/AFP)

“This would automatically give more room for maneuver and aggression for aggressive regimes to exercise their power, such as Iran, China and Taliban.”

What impact do you think the war in Europe will have on the Middle East's political and security situation?

It is hard to predict exactly what could happen, but I suspect less US attention to the Middle-East and Asia from USA and NATO, while the situation in Ukraine is tense. This would automatically give more room for maneuver and aggression for aggressive regimes to exercise their power, such as Iran, China, and Taliban. I suspect less secure and peaceful times ahead in Middle East and Asia.

“I suspect Turkey continuing to support Ukraine at least politically, if not by providing lethal aid as well.”

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan went on TV on Thursday afternoon to denounce Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. What steps does NATO expect from Turkey? What could the invasion mean for Turkey-Ukraine defense cooperation?

Turkey is a bit of a wild card in NATO, it is oftentimes hard to predict their decisions. However, Turkey seems to be a staunch supporter of Ukraine’s independence and had previous tensions with Russia before. Even now, reportedly a Turkish-owned ship has been hit close to Odessa by the Russian navy. I suspect Turkey continuing to support Ukraine at least politically, if not by providing lethal aid as well.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky delivers his speech addressing the nation in Kyiv, Feb. 25, 2022. (Photo: Ukrainian Presidential Press Office)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky delivers his speech addressing the nation in Kyiv, Feb. 25, 2022. (Photo: Ukrainian Presidential Press Office)

“The 1936 Montreux Convention allows Turkey to cut off any vessel transit between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean during wartime. And hopefully, Turkey will continue to do so.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asked Turkey to shut the Dardanelles and Bosphorus Straits to Russian warships. How likely or doable is this per your opinion? Could Ankara do this without violating the terms of the Montreux Convention?

It seems that the last reporting confirms this. To the best of my knowledge, the 1936 Montreux Convention allows Turkey to cut off any vessel transit between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean during wartime. And hopefully, Turkey will continue to do so.