"They Have Returned": ISIS Exploits Syrian Power Vacuum as U.S. Pulls Back

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) – In the eastern Syrian city of Hajin, a shop owner surveyed the street where, just a day before, the distinct chatter of AK-47s had ripped through the air, leaving two American-backed Kurdish soldiers dead. Militants on motorcycles had ambushed their pickup truck in a swift and lethal assault.

"It was the first Islamic State attack on the road," the shop owner recounted, his voice laced with an anxiety that is becoming increasingly common across the region. "We are all afraid. They have returned to our city."

This attack, as detailed in a comprehensive report by The Wall Street Journal on last Wednesday, is not an anomaly but rather a potent symbol of a grim resurgence.

Six years after the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), supported by a U.S.-led coalition, successfully dismantled the Islamic State's territorial caliphate which once governed millions, that decisive victory is being steadily eroded.

The militant group, having morphed into a decentralized and mobile insurgency, is exploiting a confluence of a reduced American military footprint and the chaotic power vacuum left by the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime.

According to U.S. and Kurdish military commanders cited in the WSJ report, this has allowed the Islamic State to enlist new recruits and significantly widen its operational reach.

The group’s capabilities received an unexpected boost late last year following the fall of Damascus.

As the Assad regime's army and its allied Iranian militias disintegrated, Islamic State fighters capitalized on the chaos by raiding abandoned arms depots, re-equipping their cells.

While they do not currently possess the strength to capture and hold territory as they did at their peak, their renewed activity is injecting a potent dose of lawlessness into the already fragile new state.

The statistics paint a stark picture of this escalation. Figures from the SDF show that Islamic State militants staged 117 attacks in northeast Syria through the end of August 2025, a dramatic increase that far outpaces the 73 total attacks recorded in all of 2024.

The new government in Damascus has also reported that its security forces have thwarted planned attacks in the capital, located 270 miles from the group's eastern strongholds, signaling the militants' growing ambitions.

The epicenter of this revival is Deir Ezzour province, which is believed to be home to most of Syria’s approximately 3,000 Islamic State fighters. The Wall Street Journal's reporting from the province’s towns illustrates how the group is adapting its tactics to reassert its influence by assassinating representatives of the area's Kurdish-led administration, renewing extortion demands, and methodically sowing fear among the populace.

Goran Tel Tamir, a top regional SDF commander, conveyed the mounting pressure his forces are under. "The withdrawal of American forces is inspiring Daesh," he stated, using the Arabic acronym for the Islamic State. "We see them launching more attacks on us. We are getting more complaints from people. This is putting us in a difficult position."

Accompanying an SDF convoy led by Tel Tamir, The Wall Street Journal witnessed the tense reality on the ground in Hajin, once a major stronghold for the Islamic State. The convoy of over 20 vehicles stopped at the site of the previous day's ambush on a potholed road, where shattered glass still lay strewn across the asphalt.

Tel Tamir explained the militants' hit-and-run tactics and noted their ability to find support in Sunni-dominated towns like Hajin. The atmosphere was heavy with unspoken hostility; as the SDF convoy passed, men and boys glared from storefronts, while women wore the black niqabs that were mandated under Islamic State rule.

The Islamic State originally emerged from the instability in Iraq following the 2003 American invasion and later took advantage of the chaos unleashed by the Arab Spring in Syria to capture vast territories. After declaring a caliphate in 2014, it ruled over an estimated eight to twelve million people at its height, becoming infamous for public beheadings and the enslavement of women.

In 2017, U.S. coalition forces and the SDF drove the group from its capital of Raqqa, forcing its remnants into Deir Ezzour province. Following major battles, thousands of fighters and their families surrendered and are now held in detention camps, but countless others melted back into sympathetic, conservative Sunni Arab communities and are now attempting to rebuild.

This resurgence coincides with a significant U.S. military drawdown. Since April, around 500 of the 2,000 American troops in Syria have been pulled out, and multiple bases have been shut down or handed over to the SDF.

According to the Pentagon, the troop count could drop below 1,000 in the coming months, with much of the reduction occurring in eastern Syria. Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said the reductions reflect the success in degrading the group. However, a report in August from the inspector general for the U.S. military's mission in Syria and Iraq stated that while the militants have been kept from regaining territory, they were actively trying to exploit Syria’s volatile state to rebuild.

The Department of Homeland Security has also noted the group’s desire to conduct or inspire attacks in the U.S.

For the SDF, the cost of this renewed insurgency has been high. May was the deadliest month for their troops since 2019, with militants targeting patrols 20 times, leaving 15 soldiers wounded and 10 dead, including the two in Hajin.

The violence continued through the summer; at least seven SDF soldiers were killed in August, five of them on a single day, and the first week of September saw eight attacks in Deir Ezzour alone. Earlier this month, two more soldiers were killed by a land mine planted by an Islamic State cell.

SDF commanders told The Wall Street Journal that the group's tactics have evolved. They now operate in small sleeper cells of four or five people, with several cells often present in a town, each unaware of the others. These cells receive orders to stage ambushes and plant improvised explosive devices.

"In this way, they are saving a lot of money. Everyone has one AK-47 and an explosive device," explained Siymend Ali, a spokesman for the People’s Defense Units, the main militia within the SDF. The militants no longer wear uniforms or carry their trademark black flags, and most are Syrian nationals, allowing them to blend easily into local populations.

Senior SDF leaders have become prime targets, with several being assassinated this year. Khabat Shaydi, an SDF military council commander in Hajin, recounted a near-fatal ambush in March.

As his four-vehicle convoy inspected checkpoints, militants yelling "Allahu akbar" fired three rocket-propelled grenades from a cluster of houses. Two of his soldiers were severely injured in the subsequent 10-minute firefight before the attackers fled across the Euphrates River into areas controlled by Syria's new government, which SDF commanders say are more lightly patrolled.

Later that day, Shaydi, who was lightly injured, received a chilling phone call. A voice said, "Infidel. You survived. Next time, we’ll kill you." Shaydi, a Sunni Arab, recognized the voice as a member of his own Al-Shaitat tribe, a stark reminder of the deep divisions sown during the conflict.

His tribe had revolted against the Islamic State in 2014, a decision that led to a brutal campaign of shootings and beheadings that left hundreds dead, including his relatives. The next year, he joined the SDF for revenge, while other tribesmen joined or were conscripted into the Islamic State.

The group's intimidation extends deep into civilian life.

Muhammad Al Bou Herdan, an oil investor, fled the town of Diban after being extorted by the Islamic State. He described how militants openly ride motorcycles through the streets and how he was forced to pay a $1,000 "zakat," or Islamic tithe, to a masked man who came to his home.

"They were watching me and all my movements," Al Bou Herdan said. "They knew all the details about my work and my family." Two months later, a different cell demanded another $1,000. When he refused, he was targeted. He spotted two men on a motorcycle at the gates of his small oil refinery and fled as they opened fire. One of his workers was shot and killed. Al Bou Herdan has since shut down his business, changed his phone number, and now lives under the constant protection of two armed cousins. Farhad Shami, an SDF spokesperson, confirmed that the group has received many reports of similar extortion cases.

The SDF's challenges are immense. Its forces are stretched thin across a vast territory, where they are also responsible for guarding camps and prisons housing nearly 50,000 former Islamic State fighters and their families.

The SDF has repeatedly asked foreign countries to repatriate their citizens, but most have not complied. The Kurdish-led forces also face external pressures, including intermittent battles with Turkish-backed militias and confrontations with forces linked to Syria’s new government.

An accord signed in March to integrate the SDF into the Syrian army has been eroding amid deep mistrust, creating more space for the Islamic State to strengthen its foothold. "This area is too big, and the Damascus government is unable to control it," said commander Tel Tamir. "Daesh is taking advantage of that."

Syria’s Ministry of Information acknowledged to The Wall Street Journal that "a security gap" exists due to limited government forces but stated that security forces have successfully disrupted Islamic State cells in Damascus and remain "fully committed to containing and eradicating it."

The political landscape is further complicated by internal tensions, as some Sunni Muslim Arab communities prefer to be governed by the new Sunni-led government in Damascus rather than the Kurdish-led local administration.

The U.S. military has historically helped mediate such tensions, but with its reduced presence, these are expected to rise. The SDF has also faced criticism from groups like the Syrian Network for Human Rights, which in August accused it of arbitrarily detaining hundreds of civilians during raids.

While the U.S. continues to provide the SDF with critical technology, intelligence, and air support—its forces killed a senior Islamic State leader in July and another in August—commanders in Deir Ezzour feel the palpable absence of American troops on the ground.

Tel Tamir noted that instead of face-to-face interaction, requests for help must now be sent through senior commanders hundreds of miles away. As his convoy departed Hajin, it passed former American encampments, now sitting empty in the desert behind thick barriers. The Americans used to conduct daily patrols that deterred the Islamic State and reassured the public, Tel Tamir said nostalgically. "When people here see the Americans, they feel safe."