‘This Is Your Final Notice’: US Issues Stern Warning to Baghdad Over Armed Faction Interference

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) – In what is being described as the sternest warning yet from Washington to Baghdad, the United States has issued a direct and unequivocal threat to the Iraqi government, cautioning against any interference by armed factions in planned U.S. military operations in the region and signaling that these Iran-backed groups are now squarely in American crosshairs.

The sharply worded message, delivered in a phone call from U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth to his Iraqi counterpart, has sent shockwaves through the Iraqi political establishment, coming just two days after a seemingly reassuring message of support and on the eve of a contentious parliamentary election, a confluence of events that has left Baghdad grappling with a volatile mix of American pressure and the unpredictable reactions of powerful domestic militias.

The dramatic escalation was revealed by Iraqi Defense Minister Thabet al-Abbasi in a televised interview, as reported by the London-based newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat.

Al-Abbasi confirmed that he had received a phone call from Hegseth, via the U.S. chargé d’affaires in Baghdad, warning of upcoming, unspecified military operations "in areas near Iraq."

The core of the message was a blunt caution against any retaliatory actions from Iraqi factions. According to al-Abbasi, Hegseth concluded the 11 to 12-minute call with a pointed and ominous final sentence: "This is your final notice and you know well how the current administration will respond."

A New Phase of Confrontation

This direct threat has been interpreted by Iraqi analysts as a clear signal that the United States is moving into a new and more confrontational phase in its long-running conflict with Iran-backed armed groups in Iraq.

Dr. Ihsan Al-Shammari, head of the Iraqi Center for Political Thought, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the U.S. administration’s strategy regarding these factions is now moving beyond its "initial testing phase." The message from Secretary Hegseth, he argued, "signals that these groups are now targeted and have no option but to either align with the state and disarm or face potential US military action."

Security and strategy expert Mukhlid Hazem echoed this assessment, telling the newspaper that "it is clear that military arrangements are underway in the region, possibly targeting Iran, with coordinated air operations against Iranian-backed armed factions."

He noted that this was not the first such warning, recalling a similar message from Secretary of State Marco Rubio and a recent, powerfully worded statement from the newly appointed U.S. Special Envoy to Iraq, Mark Savaya. "Any targeting could occur at any moment," Hazem warned, adding that "there is an unmistakable US escalation against Iran, putting everyone on alert."

Political analyst Dr. Abbas Abboud Salem questioned the timing of the threat, noting that while the U.S. stance on armed factions is not new, the current moment is defined by significant regional transformations, including developments in Syria.

He argued that these shifts mark "a new phase in which secondary actors can no longer play significant roles." He posited that the U.S. primary goal is to "curb Iranian influence in Iraq and the broader region," particularly during an election period where some of these factions are participating in the political process, a scenario Washington finds "unacceptable."

A Coordinated Campaign of Pressure

The stern military warning from the Pentagon is part of a broader, coordinated campaign of American pressure that is being waged on both the diplomatic and economic fronts.

Just two days before Hegseth's call, the new U.S. Special Envoy, Mark Savaya, issued a powerful inaugural statement that laid out the Trump administration's revitalized and assertive policy toward Iraq. As reported by Kurdistan24, Savaya's statement, which culminated in the slogan "MAKE IRAQ GREAT AGAIN," was a direct challenge to the status quo of armed groups operating with impunity.

“The United States Government has made it clear that there is no place for armed groups operating outside the authority of the state,” Savaya declared. He explicitly linked Iraq's stability and prosperity to the establishment of "unified security forces under the command of a single government," a clear call for the dismantling of the parallel security structures maintained by the militias.

He also did not shy away from naming the primary source of this destabilizing influence, stating that a sovereign Iraq must be "free from malign external interference, including from Iran and its proxies."

This diplomatic pressure has been reinforced by a new and aggressive use of economic sanctions. On October 9, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed new sanctions targeting Iraqi banking figures and companies linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Kata'ib Hizballah.

Among the entities sanctioned was the state-owned Al-Muhandis General Company, which the Treasury described as the "economic arm" of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), the state-sanctioned umbrella organization that includes many of the Iran-backed factions. The U.S. said the sanctions were aimed at dismantling corruption and money-laundering networks that enable these groups to operate.

This move triggered a sharp and concerned response from the Iraqi government. Government spokesperson Bassem Al-Awadi described the sanctions as "unilateral, unjustified, and contrary to the spirit of partnership," and warned that making such decisions without prior consultation "sets a negative precedent."

The Iraqi Prime Minister ordered the formation of a high-level national committee to review the case. The Ministry of Communications, for its part, defended its decision to award a contract to the Muhandis company, stating that as a government-owned entity under the PMF, it is entitled to participate in tenders according to Iraqi regulations.

This public dispute over the sanctions highlights the deep and complex entanglement of these armed groups within the official structures of the Iraqi state, a reality that makes the American demand to curb their influence a profoundly challenging and sensitive task for Baghdad.

A Government Caught in the Middle

The timing of this intensified American pressure, just ahead of the November 11 parliamentary elections, places Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's government in an incredibly precarious position. The mixed signals from Washington—a message of support for the Prime Minister one day, a direct military threat the next—have fueled growing concern across the political spectrum.

Al-Sudani is contesting the elections amidst intense internal disputes within his own Shiite Coordination Framework, the very coalition that includes the powerful Iran-backed factions now being targeted by the U.S.

Hegseth's phone call was not solely about threats. According to Defense Minister al-Abbasi, the discussion also covered ongoing security cooperation, including drone cooperation, a proposed security and intelligence cooperation memorandum, and the planned delivery of Bell helicopters to Iraq.

This dual approach—offering enhanced state-to-state security partnership while simultaneously threatening military action against elements within that same state—is a classic carrot-and-stick strategy designed to force Baghdad to make a choice.

As Dr. Al-Shammari noted, the statements from Savaya and Hegseth constitute a "roadmap for political forces forming the next government," a clear indication that future U.S. support will be contingent on their alignment with American objectives.

As Iraq heads to the polls, its leaders are being forced to navigate a treacherous landscape, caught between the demands of a powerful international partner and the entrenched power of domestic armed groups backed by a formidable regional neighbor.

The "final notice" delivered by the U.S. Secretary of War has dramatically raised the stakes, transforming the post-election government formation process into a critical moment that could determine whether Iraq can successfully assert its sovereignty or be plunged into a new and potentially devastating phase of internal and external conflict.