U.S. Security Expert Warns of Genocide Risk Facing Kurds in Syria

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) - Kenneth Shockley, a prominent United States security expert, issued a stark warning on Monday regarding the deteriorating situation for Kurdish populations in northern Syria, suggesting that the current military and humanitarian trajectory could mirror historic genocides if international intervention remains limited. In a wide-ranging interview with Kurdistan24 on Jan. 26, 2026, Shockley characterized the Kurdish crisis as an urgent, bipartisan security priority for the United States, even as the first humanitarian convoys from the Barzani Charity Foundation and the United Nations finally penetrated a week-long military siege of the city of Kobani.

Shockley emphasized that the global community appears to be forgetting the critical role the Kurdish people played as allies during the war in Iraq and the subsequent campaign to territorially defeat the Islamic State (ISIS). "The Kurdish situation in Syria is very dire," Shockley said. "I am concerned that Kurds will become the targets of a genocide not unlike what the Armenians experienced, or the Jews in the Middle East."

He expressed hope that the United States and other nations would move beyond rhetoric to provide tangible support, citing the "bitter experience" of the Yazidi massacre by ISIS as a cautionary tale of what occurs when the international community remains silent.

A central theme of Shockley’s assessment was the perceived lack of strategic foresight regarding the shift in Syrian leadership’s posture toward the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). While acknowledging that U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham is currently working on a plan to support the Kurdish people, Shockley argued that Western powers should have anticipated that Damascus would eventually turn against the SDF.

He noted that while President Donald Trump appears to be utilizing financial incentives to maintain regional peace, serious questions remain regarding the Syrian government’s ability to govern effectively or control the various radical groups and "tribal gunmen" currently operating on the ground.

"I don't believe there's a unified command," Shockley told Kurdistan24, referring to the Syrian Arab Army and its affiliated militias. "I don't believe they can control all of the different separatist groups that are in Syria now."

Consequently, he advocated for a continued U.S. military presence in the region to undergird any economic peace plans.

He warned that the release or escape of the approximately 7,000 to 10,000 ISIS detainees currently held in the region would pose an "imminent threat" globally, potentially triggering a "trickle-down effect" that could destabilize Gaza, Lebanon, and Tehran.

Lethal Consequences of the Siege of Kobani

The expert's warnings coincide with a series of reports documenting the human cost of the ongoing military blockade of Kobani. As the siege entered its eighth day, local medical authorities and the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (DAANES) confirmed that the crisis has turned lethal for the city's youngest residents.

Within a 24-hour period, the total number of children who succumbed to cold exposure or medical shortages across Western Kurdistan (Rojava) rose to six.

On Saturday, Jan. 24, the DAANES announced the death of a child in a Kobani hospital specifically due to a lack of medical oxygen. Avin Qamishlo, Co-chair of the DAANES Media Office, stated that health facilities in the city have collapsed as critical resources run out.

This was followed by a report from the Kurdish Red Crescent confirming that five other children, including an infant, had died in the city due to extreme cold and a total absence of heating fuel.

The humanitarian situation has reached what observers describe as a "dangerous level," with 150,000 civilians trapped within city limits. The city has faced a complete cutoff of electricity, water, and internet services since mid-January.

This infrastructure collapse has occurred alongside a historic winter storm, with snowfall levels in cities like Qamishlo and Kobani reaching levels not seen in 50 years. 

Residents who were displaced from surrounding villages have sought shelter in schools and mosques, arriving with only the clothes they were wearing and facing sub-zero temperatures without heating appliances.

BCF and United Nations Aid Breakthroughs

Despite the severity of the blockade, the first signs of a humanitarian opening emerged on Sunday. Musa Ahmad, the President of the Barzani Charity Foundation (BCF), announced during a press conference in Qamishlo that the first BCF aid convoy successfully reached Kobani.

Ahmad attributed the breakthrough to the leadership of President Masoud Barzani and the diplomatic coordination of Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Masrour Barzani.

To date, the BCF has dispatched 114 trucks to the region, each carrying 12 tons of supplies. The foundation's intervention has included the provision of diesel fuel to 81 schools to facilitate heating and the distribution of health and food packages to 30 other educational centers.

"Yesterday alone, 5,827 families—totaling 34,227 citizens—benefited from the aid," Ahmad reported. He also noted that specialized medical teams treated 1,367 patients and that the foundation is providing 3,500 hot meals daily.

The United Nations has also begun moving supplies into the contested area. Gonzalo Vargas Llosa, the UNHCR Representative in Syria, confirmed that a convoy of 24 trucks carrying food and winter assistance departed Aleppo for Kobani on Sunday.

Farhan Haq, Deputy Spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General, expressed continued concern that while aid is beginning to move, all primary access routes remained fragile. The UN is reportedly in ongoing discussions with officials in Aleppo to find more permanent mechanisms for humanitarian delivery.

Ceasefire Extensions and Security Risks

The humanitarian efforts are unfolding under the umbrella of a precarious 15-day ceasefire extension announced late Saturday. The SDF and the Syrian Ministry of Defense confirmed the agreement, which was reached through international mediation.

Damascus stated that the extension is intended to support the U.S.-led transfer of ISIS detainees from SDF-controlled prisons to Iraq.

However, the durability of the truce remains in doubt. Only hours after the extension was announced, the SDF reported that Damascus-affiliated forces shelled the village of Qasma, west of Kobani, killing a Kurdish child and wounding three other civilians. Additionally, three suicide drones reportedly struck the village of Qeri near Karkey Laki, causing material damage.

These breaches have reinforced Shockley's assessment that a lack of unified command within Syrian forces poses a persistent risk to regional stability.

The security vacuum has also impacted major detention sites. The SDF recently announced a withdrawal from the al-Hol camp—home to 24,000 people, including 6,200 foreign women and children—citing international indifference to the ISIS issue.

Syrian government forces subsequently entered the camp's perimeter, though the UNHCR reported that volatile security initially blocked teams from entering the facility to resume bread and water deliveries.

U.S.-Iraqi Coordination and Political Warnings

The regional crisis has prompted intense communication between Washington and Baghdad. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani on Sunday, commending Iraq's leadership in receiving ISIS detainees from Syria.

Iraq’s Interior Ministry is currently preparing for a second convoy of prisoners, with an ultimate goal of transferring 7,000 fighters to secure facilities in Nasiriyah, Hillah, and Nineveh.

However, Secretary Rubio coupled his praise with a firm political ultimatum regarding Iraq’s internal governance. He emphasized that for Iraq to remain a "force for stability," its government must remain independent of regional proxies.

The Secretary stated that a government controlled by any regional powers "cannot successfully put Iraq’s own interests first, keep Iraq out of regional conflicts, or advance the mutually beneficial partnership between the United States and Iraq."

This warning comes as Iraqi political parties struggle to agree on a candidate for the presidency, a process Deputy Prime Minister Fuad Hussein said would ultimately be decided on the floor of the Iraqi Parliament.

Kurdish Unity and Global Advocacy

The crisis has catalyzed a significant mobilization of the Kurdish diaspora. In Paris, official police statistics recorded 7,500 protesters on Saturday calling for French intervention. Similar rallies were held in Berlin, Stuttgart, and Leuven, Belgium, where participants emphasized Kurdish national unity.

The Kurdistan Diaspora Confederation (KDC) has intensified its outreach to European parliaments to highlight the siege of Kobani as a critical political and humanitarian issue.

In Canada, community groups in Calgary marched to the U.S. Consulate, delivering letters that warned of a "serious global security risk" should ISIS detainees be released during the Syrian offensive.

These movements align with the sentiments expressed by Elham Ahmad, the AANES Head of Foreign Relations, who characterized the voice of the diaspora as a "true line of defense" against the threat of genocide.

Shockley, in his concluding remarks to Kurdistan24, noted that the situation remains at a tipping point. He suggested that U.S. leadership can use both security funding and fiscal policy to hold the Syrian government accountable.

"If Syria falls and there’s a major incident, it could have a cascading effect and reigniting fighting everywhere from Gaza to Tehran," he warned.

As the 15-day ceasefire period proceeds, the immediate survival of the population in Kobani and the long-term security of the ISIS detention facilities remain the primary tests for the "flexible realism" currently being pursued by the Trump administration and its regional partners.