Iraq's 2025 Budget Deficit Reaches 17 Trillion Dinars: Eco Iraq Observatory

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) - The Eco Iraq observatory announced that Iraq's budget deficit for 2025 reached 17 trillion and 40 billion Iraqi dinars, as expenditures exceeded revenues in a fiscal year dominated by current spending and reliance on oil income.

In a press statement, the observatory said that state revenues during 2025 amounted to 124 trillion and 185 billion Iraqi dinars. It explained that oil revenues reached 109 trillion and 207 billion dinars, while non-oil revenues amounted to 14 trillion and 977 billion dinars.

The observatory pointed out that the financial deficit resulted from expenditures exceeding revenues. It clarified that total spending reached 141 trillion and 122 billion dinars, of which 119 trillion and 163 billion dinars were current expenditures, equivalent to 84% of total public spending.

It added that investment expenditures amounted to 22 trillion and 22 billion dinars, representing about 15% of total spending. The observatory stated that the rise in current expenditures against weak investment reflects a defect in the budget structure, with heavy reliance on oil constituting about 88% of revenues, making public finances vulnerable to price fluctuations.

The observatory stressed the necessity of enhancing non-oil revenues and increasing investment spending.

This announcement on the 2025 fiscal outcomes highlights Iraq's ongoing dependence on oil exports, which pass through key regional waterways including the Strait of Hormuz. About 20 million barrels per day of crude and other oil products were transported through the strait in 2025, according to FactCheck.org.

That flow has slowed to a trickle since the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran began, per the same report.

The Strait of Hormuz, bordering Iran and Oman, serves as a critical conduit for oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf to global markets, with roughly 27% of the world's maritime trade in crude oil and petroleum products passing through it, as detailed in a Congressional Research Service report.

Starting on March 4, 2026, Iranian forces declared the strait closed, threatening and carrying out attacks on ships attempting to transit, according to the report.

The conflict, which began with joint U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran on February 28, 2026, has led to a de facto closure of the strait, disrupting shipments from major producers including Iraq, per the American Action Forum.

Transits through the strait have essentially ground to a halt, with firms adopting a cautious stance amid soaring war-risk premiums, the forum noted.

Iraqi oil production from its main southern oilfields has fallen by 70% to 1.3 million barrels per day, as the country is unable to export via the Strait of Hormuz due to the conflict, three industry sources told Reuters.

Iraq's exports fell to an average of around 800,000 barrels per day, with only two tankers loading because vessels cannot move freely through the strait to southern terminals, according to the sources and a shipping agent.

Storage facilities in the Gulf are rapidly filling, forcing oilfields in Iraq and other countries to cut production, analysts, traders and sources told Al Jazeera.

The conflict has led to the suspension of about a fifth of global crude and natural gas supply, as Iran targets ships in the strait, per the report.

Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has almost completely stopped since the strikes against Iran, with Iran targeting tankers in the area, according to Bloomberg.

Gulf producers have lowered crude output as storage tanks fill up, the report added.

The conflict disrupted approximately 20% of global oil supplies transiting the Strait of Hormuz, causing Brent Crude oil prices to rise from around $70 to over $110 per barrel within days, per Reuters.

Oil production in Iraq, among other countries, dropped by a reported 6.7 million barrels per day by March 10, 2026, and by at least 10 million barrels per day as of March 12, 2026, according to the entry.

Iran's closure of the strait also disrupted significant liquefied natural gas volumes, the entry noted. A prolonged disruption of Middle East oil trade would create oil market conditions without historical precedent, with oil prices experiencing significant upward pressure, as stated in the Congressional Research Service report.

The international benchmark Brent jumped 8% from $71.32 per barrel on February 27, 2026, to $77.24 per barrel on March 2, 2026, the trading days before and after operations began, per the report. As the conflict continued, prices went higher, at one point breaking the $100 per barrel mark.

In the U.S., President Donald Trump raised the prospect of actions to reestablish free transit of the strait, amid a considerable decrease in shipping traffic, according to the Congressional Research Service.

On March 3, 2026, Trump stated that he had ordered the provision of political risk insurance to all maritime trade and said the U.S. Navy could escort commercial vessels through the strait if necessary.

Iran has the capacity to disrupt shipping via mines, speed boats, submarines, shore-based cruise missiles, aircraft and other systems, the report assessed. Prior to the conflict, analysts held consensus that the U.S. military could counter Iran's forces and restore shipping flow, though such an effort would take days, weeks or months.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis has reshaped global oil markets, with the conflict putting the waterway on a knife's edge and affecting oil prices, jet fuel and liquefied natural gas, per Kpler.

The conflict directly threatens approximately 20% of global oil supply that transits the strait daily, the blog stated.

A closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the U.S.-Iran war has impacted the oil market, but also sectors reliant on shipping, from metals to agriculture and autos, according to CNBC.

U.S. military actions and insurance backstops may help keep trade flowing, but supply chain experts say it could take weeks for impacts to hit prices across products.

The International Energy Agency took the step of saying it would release 400 million barrels of oil from reserves, per the report. There is no value to Iran in intercepting cargo containers, though non-oil ships may be harassed by Iranian speedboats, the report noted.

Reports of U.S. Navy escorting ships through the strait were incorrect, but the U.S. can put plans in place to stop Iran from seizing ships, with air power and missiles able to destroy Iranian missile batteries, according to CNBC.

Iraq halted crude oil shipments via a key pipeline to a Turkish port as a precautionary measure, as Middle Eastern energy infrastructure is caught in the conflict, per Bloomberg.

The pipeline carries oil from northern fields, but nearly all Iraqi crude exports are shipped via the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. and France are considering naval escorts for tankers crossing the strait, though neither plans to start operations immediately, the report added. Prolonged disruption threatens global inflation.

In a February update, the International Energy Agency said that with around 25% of the world's seaborne oil trade transiting the strait and limited bypass options, any disruption would have huge consequences for world oil markets, per FactCheck.org.

A prolonged disruption would lead to oil supply shortages and make price increases inevitable, the agency warned.

Iran blocked the flow of oil and goods through the strait in retaliation for the airstrikes, threatening to shoot or bomb vessels attempting to pass, according to the report. The strait connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.

The conflict could leave consumers and businesses facing weeks or months of higher fuel prices even if it ends quickly, as suppliers grapple with damaged facilities, disrupted logistics and elevated shipping risks, per Al Jazeera.

A nearly complete shutdown means producers like Iraq have suspended shipments of up to 140 million barrels of oil, equal to about 1.4 days of global demand.

Oil and gas prices have surged since the war's start amid the collapse in Hormuz transits, according to Bloomberg.

Daily natural gas prices in Asia and Europe have risen almost 54% and 63%, respectively, over the week before operations began, while U.S. prices increased 7% between February 27 and March 2, 2026, per the Congressional Research Service.

Iran's attempts to disrupt energy commerce carry strategic benefits and risks for Tehran, including direct conflict with the U.S. in past instances, the report noted. War risk insurance has increased significantly since fighting began on February 28, 2026.

The efficacy of emergency response measures could be tested to their limits in a prolonged disruption, with uncertain duration of elevated prices determined by time needed to normalize trade, according to the Congressional Research Service.

Congress holds interest in potential closures of the strait due to impacts on global prices for oil, natural gas and other commodities, the report stated. Oil supply disruptions could affect prices worldwide, including in the U.S.