Israel Says Trump May Be Banking on Trio of Iranian Officials to End War: Al‑Monitor

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) - As the war with Iran enters its fifth week, indications are growing that it is coming to a close, at least in its current form, according to Al-Monitor. Although no one in the White House seems to know for sure exactly what is to come or when, a political associate of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Al-Monitor that a sober analysis of developments in recent days reinforces this conclusion.

A senior Israeli diplomatic official told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity that one might as well check on Polymarket, the predictions betting website, when asked about the state of the war. The comment reflects a pervasive sense of embarrassment and frustration at the failure of the combined US-Israeli attacks to bring the Iranian government to its knees, as reported by Al-Monitor.

Al-Monitor reported that the increased pace and intensity of Israeli strikes on Iran’s defense industries, with a focus on ballistic missile storage and production sites, signals that Israel is trying to cause as much damage as possible before President Donald Trump orders a halt to attacks.

Al-Monitor has learned that journalists and pundits close to Netanyahu are downplaying the initial expectations they raised that the war would result in the collapse of the mullahs’ government. That prediction has since been replaced by statements about creating the conditions for its collapse at some future point in time.

A senior Israeli security official told Al-Monitor that he identifies signs that Trump has found a point of contact with the remnants of the Iranian regime — a trio comprised of parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the head of Iran’s joint military command known as the Khatam al-Anbiya, Maj. Gen. Ali Abdollahi, and Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, in whatever shape he’s in. Confusion continues to surround the extent of the injuries Khamenei sustained in the Feb. 28 attack that killed his father and predecessor, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

“According to our assessment,” the senior Israeli security official told Al-Monitor, “this trio is now running the show, but they are unable to make the really tough decisions of the type made at the time [1988] by the Islamist Republic’s founder, Ayatollah [Ruhollah] Khomeini, when he decided to end the war with Iraq with his now famous statement that he had been forced to drink from a poisoned chalice.” Khomeini was referring to accepting UN Security Council Resolution 598, calling for an end to all combat operations in the eight-year-long Iran–Iraq War.

The senior Israeli security official, speaking to Al-Monitor, believes that there is currently no one in Iran who is able to follow Khomeini’s example and who also has the support of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. “This is perhaps one of the problems now facing Trump — that he has no one who can help him extricate the US from this war he launched,” the official added.

Al-Monitor reported that it has become increasingly obvious that Netanyahu knew nothing in advance of Trump’s intention to wind down the war. In the wake of media reports last week of Trump’s plan, the first U.S. official to call and tell him was Vice President JD Vance, who is on record as opposing the war. Vance’s March 23 call was followed three days later by one from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, considered Israel’s strongest ally in the Trump administration. Rubio only called after reports emerged that Trump had conceded to an Iranian request to extend the U.S. deadline for opening the Strait of Hormuz from five days to 10, until April 6.

“Netanyahu keeps getting the bad news from others, not from Trump, and the number of calls from the White House to the prime minister’s residence has clearly decreased,” the senior Israeli diplomatic official told Al-Monitor. “Trump has undoubtedly become less focused on continuing the war. He realizes the economic and political damage it is causing, but that doesn’t mean he has made a final decision to stop it.”

According to a senior Israeli security official who spoke to Al-Monitor, the Iranians have turned out to be a paper tiger militarily. “They have little response to American power and Israeli sophistication and capabilities. Still, they know how to read the map and conduct negotiations,” the official said.

The official added, as relayed to Al-Monitor, that the Iranians recognize that amid the jumble of Trump’s statements, tweets and rhetoric, the president’s back is against the wall. “The dilemma for the Iranians now is whether to help Trump get off his high horse or to let him twist in the wind,” he said.

Al-Monitor quoted the senior Israeli security official as remarking that even as the Iranians appear close to declaring what they consider a victory, they still potentially find themselves in a bind. “They will define as a historic and heroic victory that they survived the combined attacks by Israel and the United States and continue to rule Iran and get rid of all US sanctions. Rightly so, from their perspective,” the official told Al-Monitor. Nevertheless, he estimates, if they want to humiliate Trump, they could find themselves facing the famous gates of hell, with which Trump keeps threatening, and may not survive.

At the moment, the war effort is floundering, according to reporting by Al-Monitor. The Americans have promised not to attack Iranian energy infrastructure for the next 10 days, while Israel strikes Iranian targets but avoids damaging important infrastructure as well. At the same time, Hezbollah continues to attack Israel from Lebanon with no end in sight. The mud of war is not drying as the conflict approaches the one-month mark. Instead, it is turning into a quagmire.

Some Israeli military experts believe that a ground operation to capture strategic Kharg Island or break through the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to an even more serious stalemate and a large number of casualties, sources told Al-Monitor. With that in mind, Israel would rather continue with more of the same — namely, attacks designed to weaken the government until it collapses or agrees to meet Israeli and American demands for ending the nuclear and ballistic missile programs and halts financing regional proxies.

Israeli officials have expressed hope that the war ends with Iran relinquishing its highly enriched uranium, thereby greatly reducing its prospects of becoming a nuclear power. That Trump is not a patient man is also, however, a factor.

“Any other outcome, including supervision agreements and restrictions on the uranium, will be partial and could lead to disaster in the future,” the senior Israeli security official told Al-Monitor. “We hope the president understands this.”

The assessments from Israeli officials, as conveyed to Al-Monitor, reflect a shift in expectations after weeks of combined U.S.-Israeli operations that have not produced the anticipated collapse of the Iranian government. Officials continue to emphasize the need for concrete steps on Iran’s nuclear program while noting the constraints on decision-making within the current Iranian leadership structure. The senior officials stressed that the Iranian side retains the ability to negotiate even amid military pressure, and that the U.S. side faces challenges in identifying authoritative counterparts capable of delivering a decisive end to hostilities.

Israeli strikes on missile-related targets have intensified in recent days as officials prepare for the possibility of a Trump-ordered pause, according to the analysis shared with Al-Monitor. At the same time, the lack of direct high-level communication from the White House to Netanyahu has heightened concerns in Jerusalem about the direction of U.S. policy. The extension of the deadline related to the Strait of Hormuz has been viewed by Israeli diplomats as a concession that further signals a desire to de-escalate on the American side.

The Iranian regime’s survival despite sustained attacks has prompted a recalibration of Israeli public messaging, moving away from immediate regime-change scenarios toward longer-term pressure strategies, as detailed by Al-Monitor. Hezbollah’s ongoing operations from Lebanon add another layer to the multi-front challenge facing Israel, even as the focus remains on the Iranian theater. Military experts have cautioned against expanding the conflict into ground operations, citing high risks and uncertain outcomes that could prolong the stalemate.

Throughout the assessments shared with Al-Monitor, the emphasis remains on the core Israeli objective of preventing Iran from advancing its nuclear capabilities. Officials have repeatedly highlighted the importance of any eventual agreement including the removal of highly enriched uranium stocks. The senior security official’s comments underscore the view that anything short of this would leave open the possibility of future threats.

The senior diplomatic official noted that economic and political costs are weighing on the U.S. administration’s calculations, according to reporting by Al-Monitor. Reduced frequency of direct contacts with Israeli leadership is seen as one indicator of shifting priorities in Washington. Nevertheless, Israeli strikes continue in an effort to shape the conditions on the ground ahead of any potential cessation.

Iranian officials, according to the Israeli analysis conveyed to Al-Monitor, are weighing their options carefully, balancing the prospect of claiming survival as a victory against the risk of further escalation. The military disparity highlighted by the officials has not translated into a straightforward negotiating advantage for either side, given the complexities of internal Iranian decision-making and the absence of a single authoritative figure comparable to historical precedents.

As operations persist without major infrastructure strikes from the U.S. side during the current 10-day window, the conflict’s trajectory appears tied to diplomatic maneuvers involving the identified Iranian trio, sources told Al-Monitor. Israeli assessments continue to monitor developments closely, with the understanding that the war’s current phase may soon give way to a new set of dynamics.