Global Stocks Rise on Ceasefire Optimism, Oil Prices Extend Gains Ahead of US-Iran Talks
Markets were buoyed earlier this week after a two-week truce was announced on Tuesday, raising hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route that handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas shipments.
ERBIL (Kurdistan24) – Global stock markets climbed on Friday as investors remained cautiously optimistic about a fragile ceasefire in the United States-Iran conflict, while oil prices continued to rise amid concerns that ongoing Israeli strikes in Lebanon could derail the peace process.
Markets were buoyed earlier this week after a two-week truce was announced on Tuesday, raising hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route that handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas shipments.
However, uncertainty persists as disagreements over the terms of the truce and the future of the waterway cloud prospects for a lasting resolution. Delegations from the United States and Iran are set to meet in Pakistan over the weekend, though tensions remain high. Tehran has accused Israel of violating the ceasefire by continuing strikes on Lebanese territory, targeting positions it says are linked to Hezbollah. Both Washington and Israel deny that halting attacks on Lebanon was part of the agreement.
US President Donald Trump on Thursday warned Iran against imposing tolls on ships passing through the Hormuz Strait, saying such actions must stop immediately. He added that oil flows would resume “with or without the help of Iran,” criticizing Tehran’s handling of maritime transit.
Despite the ceasefire, shipping activity remains limited, with only a handful of vessels passing through the strait since the truce took effect, according to maritime data.
Equity markets across Asia posted gains, with major indexes in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Seoul, and Mumbai all moving higher. European markets were more subdued, with London flat and Paris and Frankfurt edging up, following a second consecutive day of gains on Wall Street.
Meanwhile, oil prices hovered just below $100 per barrel, with US benchmark crude briefly surpassing that level on Thursday. Analysts say rising equities are partly supported by reports that Israel and Lebanon could hold talks in Washington next week, potentially easing regional tensions.
Market analysts caution, however, that optimism may be premature. The ceasefire remains temporary, and significant differences persist between Tehran and Washington over a proposed framework for peace. Experts also warn that even if the Hormuz Strait fully reopens, it could take weeks or months to clear shipping backlogs and restore normal supply chains.
Adding to concerns, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the organization will downgrade global growth forecasts due to the conflict’s lasting economic impact, including higher energy costs, supply disruptions, and weakened investor confidence.
Investors are also closely watching upcoming US inflation data, which could offer further insight into how rising energy prices are affecting consumers.
In Asia, Japan signaled plans to release additional oil reserves, while strong corporate earnings boosted shares of Fast Retailing, which surged after raising its annual profit outlook, driven by robust demand for its Uniqlo products overseas.