The ‘Bolton Doctrine’ for Iran: No Deal, No Trust—Only ‘Regime Change’

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) - Former U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton said on Monday that recent military actions by the United States and Israel have inflicted "considerable damage" on Iran's leadership, military capabilities, and nuclear program, while asserting that the Iranian regime remains in power and that prospects for meaningful negotiations appear limited.

Speaking to Kurdistan24's Zhino Mohammed on the program Topic of the Day (Basi Roj) from Washington, D.C., Bolton said a ceasefire currently in place reflects a period of reassessment but argued that Iran "has not shown any real interest in negotiation," adding that, in his view, "the only way to get peace and stability in the region is to change the regime in Iran."

The interview focused on multiple dimensions of the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Iran, and Israel, including the effectiveness of military operations, the prospects for negotiations, internal dynamics within Iran's leadership, and the role of U.S. domestic politics in shaping policy decisions.

Bolton addressed questions regarding U.S. strategic objectives, the extent of damage inflicted on Iran, and whether the war's initial goals had been achieved. 

He also discussed divisions within Iran's political system, the stalled diplomatic track, and differing positions between Washington and Tehran.

Additional segments of the discussion examined the role of Israel, criticisms of U.S. policy from allies and domestic audiences, and Bolton's assessment of European perspectives on Iran. 

The interview concluded with a brief exchange on a reported White House shooting incident.

U.S. foreign policy and military objectives

Bolton said it remains unclear whether regime change in Iran is an explicit objective of U.S. policy under President Donald Trump.

"It's not clear to me that regime change is one of Trump's objectives," he said, adding that the president has indicated he believes leadership changes in Tehran have already altered the political landscape.

However, Bolton disputed that characterization, stating that while individuals in leadership positions may have changed, "it's the same ideology that these people in the Revolutionary Guard hold."

He said U.S. and Israeli military actions have targeted a broad range of Iranian capabilities, including "its nuclear weapons program, its ballistic missile and drone programs, its military bases, its production facilities, its air defenses, its Air Force, its Navy."

Bolton added that the scale of destruction may not be fully visible internationally due to limited access for foreign journalists in Iran.

"Military officials can talk about the number of targets that we've hit, but that doesn't convey the same sense of the destruction," he said.

Assessment of war objectives

When asked whether the original objectives of the war had been achieved, Bolton said the answer depends on how those objectives are defined.

"I'm not sure what Trump's objectives are," he said.

He maintained that while significant damage has been inflicted, key elements of Iran's capabilities remain intact.

"While tremendous damage has been done to the nuclear program, it has not been eliminated," he said, adding that Iran's capacity to support allied groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis has also "not been eliminated."

Bolton said that if the current government in Tehran remains in power and retains the ability to export oil, it could use those revenues to rebuild.

"If the regime is allowed to stay in power and it's allowed to ship oil internationally, it will use those revenues to rebuild," he said.

Position on regime change

Bolton reiterated his long-standing position that regime change should be the central objective of military action.

"I think the war should be fought for regime change," he said, adding that such an outcome would justify the use of U.S. force.

He argued that internal divisions within Iran's leadership could create opportunities for change. 

"There's considerable objective evidence that the regime has been badly damaged at the top," he said, pointing to reports of large delegations accompanying Iranian negotiators as an indication of internal distrust.

"I think this should suggest that with the right help to the opposition inside Iran, that there's indeed still a chance to pull the regime apart at the top," he added.

Ceasefire and prospects for renewed conflict

Bolton described the current ceasefire as a pause during which both sides are evaluating next steps but expressed skepticism about its effectiveness.

"I think the ceasefire is a mistake," he said, arguing that it "takes the pressure off the regime."

He said he would support renewed military operations, including measures to prevent Iran from restricting maritime traffic.

"I would resume military activity," he said, adding that "we need to use military force to prevent Iran from closing maritime traffic in the Persian Gulf and through the Strait of Hormuz."

At the same time, Bolton said President Trump appears to be seeking a way to end hostilities, citing domestic political considerations.

"He's looking for a way to end the hostilities… because he's worried about his domestic political situation," Bolton said, referencing concerns over fuel prices and upcoming congressional elections.

Negotiations and diplomatic stalemate

Bolton identified two primary factors behind the absence of further negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

First, he cited internal divisions within the Iranian government. "I think the Iranian regime is very divided internally," he said, adding that this has limited its ability to present a unified negotiating position.

Second, he pointed to the gap between U.S. and Iranian positions. "The regime's position is so far away from the Trump position that I don't see a deal being practical at this point," he said.

Bolton said that while President Trump "would like to make a deal," he faces political constraints.

"He doesn't want to make a deal that would leave him politically vulnerable or looking like Barack Obama in 2015," he said.

Addressing Iranian claims of mistrust toward the United States, Bolton responded: "I don't have any trust in the Iranian regime."

Role of Israel and U.S. decision-making

Bolton said that while the United States has worked closely with Israel, the decision to initiate military action was not driven by Israeli pressure.

"I don't think Donald Trump was talked into this by Benjamin Netanyahu," he said.

He noted that Israeli leadership has long supported regime change in Iran but said the decision ultimately rests with Washington.

"Trump began this war and Trump will end the war," he said.

Bolton added that the rationale behind the timing of U.S. military action remains unclear. "Why Trump decided to use force at the beginning of March is still unknown," he said.

Domestic and allied criticism

Responding to questions about criticism from U.S. allies and domestic audiences, Bolton said the administration had clear objectives focused on weakening Iranian state power.

"The U.S. had clear objectives, primarily focusing on reducing the instruments of Iranian state power," he said.

However, he acknowledged shortcomings in how those objectives were communicated.

"He did not make what I think is the very compelling case for regime change to the American people," Bolton said, referring to President Trump.

Bolton also cited a lack of coordination with allies. "He should have been consulting with the allies, with NATO, with the Gulf Arab countries, with our Pacific allies," he said, adding that coordination with opposition groups was also insufficient.

Assessment of outcomes and potential winners

When asked who would be considered the winner if the conflict ended soon, Bolton said the outcome would depend on U.S. decisions going forward. "A lot depends on what Trump does," he said.

He stated that U.S. and Israeli military capabilities are "clearly sufficient" but emphasized the importance of supporting opposition forces within Iran.

Bolton said it is premature to declare the United States the winner. "Not yet," he said, adding that while Iran has suffered "terrible setbacks," those alone do not constitute a decisive outcome.

"I would rather have solved the problem once and for all by overthrowing the regime," he added.

European perspectives and regional implications

Bolton rejected European assessments that Iran does not pose a direct threat. "I think they're making a big mistake," he said, arguing that Iran-linked activities have had a greater impact in Europe than in North America.

He also pointed to broader economic implications.

"The entire world economy is affected" by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, he said.

Bolton added that Iran's missile capabilities present a geographic risk to Europe. "Iran's intermediate range ballistic missiles can hit targets in Europe," he said.

Position on Iran's policies

Bolton said his position on regime change is based on what he described as systemic threats posed by Iran's government. 

"The regime is a threat in all of its various manifestations," he said, citing nuclear development, support for armed groups, and actions affecting global energy markets.

He said past agreements have not altered Iran's behavior. "The regime often promises not to do those things and simply ignores its promises," he said, referencing the 2015 nuclear deal.

White House security incident

In response to a question about a reported shooting incident at the White House, Bolton said it was "welcome that nobody was killed" and described the outcome as avoiding "a real tragedy."

He said the incident underscores broader concerns about political violence. "In a free society, violence is an unacceptable way to resolve political differences," he said.

Bolton addressed U.S. policy, Iran conflict dynamics, negotiations, and domestic factors during the interview.