UN Warns US-Israeli War on Iran Could Push 30 Million into Poverty Amid Global Energy Shock

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) — The ongoing war involving the United States and Israel against Iran could drive more than 30 million people into poverty worldwide, according to the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), as surging energy and fertilizer prices ripple across global markets.

Speaking on the sidelines of a G7 development meeting in Paris, Alexander De Croo, head of the UNDP, described the situation as “development in reverse,” warning that decades of economic progress in vulnerable regions risk being undone within weeks.

“It took decades to build stable societies and local economies, and only several weeks of war to destroy that,” he told AFP.

A UNDP assessment conducted after six weeks of conflict estimates that even if hostilities ended immediately, approximately 32 million people across 160 countries could fall into precarity.

A key driver of the crisis has been the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes. The disruption has sent fuel and fertilizer costs soaring, placing immense strain on import-dependent economies.

Countries in Africa and Asia have already begun implementing emergency measures, including fuel rationing and reduced working hours to curb consumption, while others have cut fuel taxes to ease pressure on households.

The UNDP warned that Sub-Saharan Africa, as well as Asian nations such as Bangladesh and Cambodia, are particularly vulnerable. Developing island nations are also expected to suffer severe economic fallout.

De Croo cautioned that rising energy costs and fertilizer shortages would significantly impact food production and living standards in the coming months, potentially triggering political instability. He also highlighted the risk of declining remittances, as many workers in Gulf countries—now affected by the conflict—send money back to their home countries.

To mitigate the crisis, the UNDP estimates that approximately $6 billion in subsidies will be required to support the most vulnerable populations. Discussions are already underway with global financial institutions, including the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

“You can say that six billion dollars is a lot,” De Croo noted. “But the war costs nine billion dollars per week.”

The warning comes at a time when global development aid has dropped sharply, falling by more than 23 percent last year, largely due to funding cuts by major donors led by the United States.