Barbara Leaf: Kurds Offers Pathway for Regional Stability

By Ahora Qadi

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) – In an exclusive interview with Kurdistan24 on the sidelines of the Ninth Sulaimani Forum, Barbara Leaf, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, emphasized the growing role of the Kurdish people in regional stability and warned of the enduring threat posed by militia groups in Iraq.

Leaf, who has long been involved in U.S. foreign policy towards Iraq and the Middle East, praised the Sulaimani Forum’s agenda, noting the balance between local and regional themes. “It was a great selection. I was especially interested in the discussions around Iraqi politics, the upcoming elections, Prime Minister Masrour Barzani’s agenda, and KRG President Nechirvan Barzani’s perspective,” she said.

Addressing the role of the Kurds in regional dynamics, Leaf acknowledged their existing influence, particularly through engagements between Iraqi and Syrian Kurds, which she described as stabilizing factors in the region.

, “It’s already clear that the Kurds can have a role and effect in the region. Engagements between Iraqi Kurds and Syrian Kurds are a stabilizing factor.”

U.S.-KRG Ties Strong but Trump Administration’s Policy Unclear

When asked about U.S. policy toward the Kurdistan Region under President Trump, Leaf acknowledged uncertainty. “So far, it’s unclear. The administration is preoccupied with high-priority files: Iran, Gaza, and Russia’s war on Ukraine,” she said, noting the absence of a well-defined approach toward Iraq and Iraqi Kurdistan.

Regarding oil exports and stalled negotiations between Erbil, Baghdad, and Ankara, Leaf reflected on the challenges surrounding Kurdistan's oil exports, noting that while the Biden administration attempted to mediate, a comprehensive agreement was not achieved. She expressed hope that the Trump administration would prioritize this issue and facilitate a resolution beneficial to all parties involved.

“I think you know these issues as well as anyone, and part of it's political, part of it's technical. These are issues which are sort of three-sided, between Erbil, between Baghdad, between Ankara. And I think with good political will, there's a good way forward. And it will be good for all parties.”

Barriers to Oil Export Agreements

Identifying the obstacles to oil export agreements, Leaf cited both political and technical issues involving Erbil, Baghdad, and Ankara. She emphasized that with political will and improved relations—particularly noting the better-than-ever ties between Ankara and Baghdad—there is potential for progress.

“I think there's a mixture of political and technical obstacles, but as I say, with good political will, and I do think increasingly the relations between Ankara and Baghdad, they are better than they have ever been. I can remember when they were very bad ten, twelve years ago and it was really bad for everybody, it was injurious. I think the relations between Erbil and Baghdad are improving steadily, so I am hopeful that with a little bit of push, a little bit of encouragement from Washington, that the parties can resolve these issues.”

‘Militias Are a Cancer on Iraq’s Sovereignty’

Leaf described militias in Iraq as detrimental to the country's sovereignty and stability, labeling them as predatory entities that operate outside state control. She stressed the importance of the Iraqi government's efforts to bring these groups under control to ensure national security.

“These groups are a kind of cancer. They undermine sovereignty, threaten stability, and operate independently from the Iraqi state,” she asserted. “Pose threats to the Iraqi people and other countries,” referencing past attacks on Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. “They are conducting foreign policy not endorsed by Baghdad,” she said, adding, “This must end.”

Federalism Misunderstood in the Middle East

Discussing Iraq's governance, Leaf highlighted the concept of federalism, noting its potential benefits in providing autonomy while maintaining national unity. She observed that federalism is often misunderstood in the Middle East, where it's sometimes associated with secession, but she advocated for its positive aspects based on global experiences.

“Federalism is often feared because it’s associated with secession, but globally, it has proven to offer communities autonomy while preserving national unity,” she explained. “This could benefit both federal Iraq and the Kurdish people.”

U.S.-Iran Dialogue: A Long and Difficult Road

Regarding U.S.-Iran relations, Leaf acknowledged the complexity of the issues at hand, including Iran's nuclear activities and its use of proxy groups. She expressed skepticism about resolving these challenges within a short timeframe, emphasizing the need for direct engagement and comprehensive discussions to address the multifaceted threats posed by Iran.

“as we know, it's going to be a tough and complex road. But the atmosphere is good on both sides. The atmosphere is positive on both sides. The atmosphere is positive on both sides. It will get more difficult as they get beyond talking about talking, talking about a framework, talking about the agenda, and then once they get into the issues, this is where it will get very tough. But I, for one, have always believed that we should be in direct contact with the Iranian government to resolve our issues.”

And when asked about the American response if Iran didn’t stopped it’s nuclear program, leaf said, “the Trump administration has not yet defined what it wants to do in full. So that is where things will get tough.”

Trump Does Not Want War, But Iran Must Cooperate

Leaf expressed hope that conflict with Iran could be avoided, stating that President Trump does not desire a new war. However, she noted that much depends on Iran's willingness to make necessary decisions regarding its nuclear program and support for proxy groups.

“I hope not. I don't actually think President Trump wants to end up at such a point. I take him seriously when he says he's a president who does not want his legacy to be a new war.I take him seriously when he says that. But a lot depends on Iran.”

When asked about the Trump administration's pressure tactics, she added: “I think it’s about focusing Iran’s attention. He’s raising the stakes to compel a response.”

Regional Dynamics and U.S. Role

Analyzing the broader Middle Eastern landscape, Leaf observed that events in Syria and Lebanon have destabilized Iran and Russia, while Turkey has gained significant influence. She called for the U.S. to play a major role in stabilizing Syria and Lebanon, working closely with Turkey and Arab states, though she acknowledged that the Trump administration's intentions in this regard remain uncertain.

“I think Turkey, obviously, has had a very major influence in Syria. The US under the Trump administration has not really showed what it wants to do in the region, beyond Gaza and beyond Iran. So we're still waiting to see what President Trump wants to do. I think the US has a role to play. I hope the U.S. will play a major role. And when it comes to Syria and Lebanon, what I want to see is that the U.S. work very closely with Turkey, with Arab states, to help stabilize these two very important countries. It's just not clear yet whether the Trump administration wants to invest that effort. I hope they do.”

Rojava Policy Still Undefined

Leaf indicated that the Trump administration's stance on supporting Kurds in northeastern Syria (Kurdistan of Syria) is still unclear, with many questions about their policy direction remaining unanswered.

“I think that too is unclear. There is a lot, unfortunately, that is still not clear about where the Trump administration wants to go on Rojava and on a series of other questions.”

Praising Kurdistan’s Stability Amid Regional Turmoil

Sharing her impressions of the Kurdistan Region, Leaf said: “This is my first visit to Sulaimani and the forum. It’s a beautiful, charming place. Things in Kurdistan are trending positively, especially when compared to the turbulent regional context.”

She praised the hospitality of the Kurdish people, stating: “It’s so warm and welcoming. There’s a deep cultural connection—family, sharing meals, walking in the streets, drinking tea. It reminds me of small-town America.”

Leaf concluded by expressing optimism for the region's future, hoping for increased economic growth and tourism, and a calming of the surrounding turbulent environment to allow the people of Iraq and Iraqi Kurdistan to thrive.