Beijing Seeks U.S. Reversal on Taiwan Policy in Context of Trump Trade Deal

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) – As the United States and China lay the groundwork for a year of high-level engagement, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is reportedly pursuing his ultimate strategic prize: a fundamental shift in American policy that would see Washington formally oppose Taiwanese independence.

According to a detailed report in The Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter, Mr. Xi is planning to leverage President Donald Trump's keen interest in striking a major economic accord to press for this monumental concession, a move that would actively align the U.S. with Beijing's long-held territorial claims and could profoundly alter the security landscape of the Indo-Pacific.

This diplomatic gambit comes at a time of unprecedented and deepening military cooperation between China and Russia, a partnership that, as revealed in a separate investigation by The Washington Post, now includes Moscow actively equipping and training Chinese airborne units with battlefield-tested expertise and technology that analysts say could significantly boost Beijing’s capacity to launch a lightning-fast assault on Taiwan.

According to The Wall Street Journal's reporting, Mr. Xi is no longer satisfied with the carefully calibrated U.S. position of "strategic ambiguity," a policy that acknowledges Beijing's "One China" principle without endorsing its claim over Taiwan and states that Washington does not "support" Taiwanese independence.

As The Wall Street Journal wrote, for the Chinese leader, who has made the "reunification" with Taiwan a cornerstone of his vision for national revival, the distinction between "not supporting" independence and "opposing" it is far more than a matter of semantics. A formal U.S. declaration of opposition would represent a tectonic shift from a neutral stance to one that actively sides with Beijing against Taiwanese sovereignty, a change that would not only isolate Taipei but could also serve to further cement Mr. Xi's hold on power domestically.

This high-stakes diplomatic maneuvering is unfolding against a backdrop of a burgeoning military alliance between Beijing and Moscow. A stunning report from The Washington Post, based on a cache of newly obtained documents, has revealed the intricate details of this partnership.

According to the documents, which were independently verified by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a British think tank, Russia has agreed to sell an array of advanced amphibious vehicles, self-propelled anti-tank guns, and armored personnel carriers to the People’s Liberation Army Air Force. Crucially, the deal also includes the transfer of specialized parachute systems for airdropping heavy equipment from high altitudes and comprehensive training programs for Chinese paratroopers in Russia and later in China.

Military analysts who spoke with The Washington Post described this level of cooperation as a significant escalation, moving beyond symbolic joint drills to the development of interoperable systems and the sharing of critical combat experience. The expertise and technology being shared are in one of the few areas where Russia's capabilities, honed in its wars in Syria and Ukraine, still surpass those of the rapidly modernizing Chinese military.

"It is a very good example of how the Russians have become an enabler for the Chinese," Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at RUSI, told The Post, making the security challenges posed by the two nations "almost impossible to separate."

The specific nature of the equipment and training, analysts told The Post, is most valuable as part of Beijing's preparations for a potential invasion of Taiwan. A full-scale amphibious assault on the self-governing island would be a highly complex and risky operation for the untested Chinese military.

Lyle Goldstein, an expert on the Chinese and Russian militaries at Brown University, explained to The Washington Post that Chinese planners consider the delivery of small, well-equipped airborne units to seize key infrastructure inland as "absolutely essential" in the opening hours of a conflict. Russia's battlefield experience in this domain is therefore invaluable to Beijing. "They have studied D-Day backward, forward and upside down [and] realized that it would have failed without an airborne component," Goldstein said.

This deepening military-technical relationship is a tangible manifestation of the "no limits" partnership that Mr. Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin have celebrated. As Moscow becomes increasingly dependent on Beijing for dual-use technology to sustain its war effort in Ukraine, it is, in turn, providing Beijing with the tools to advance its own geopolitical ambitions.

The cooperation, as The Washington Post noted, also underscores a fundamental weakness in the Pentagon's strategy of attempting to pivot its focus from Europe to the Asia-Pacific, as the two theaters are now inextricably linked.

While flexing its growing military muscle in partnership with Russia, China has simultaneously been engaged in a sophisticated diplomatic campaign on the global stage. A report in The New York Times from the recent United Nations General Assembly detailed how Beijing has been working to position itself as a pillar of stability and a champion of "true multilateralism," in stark contrast to the "America First" posture of the Trump administration.

China's leaders used the UN summit to roll out pledges on climate change and international trade, moves that, while modest in substance, were designed to project an image of a responsible global power ready to fill the leadership vacuum left by a retreating United States.

China's top leader, Xi Jinping, told a UN summit by video link that Beijing would commit to a detailed target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions for the first time, a pledge made just a day after President Trump had derided climate change as the "greatest con job."

Similarly, Premier Li Qiang announced that China would no longer claim trade benefits reserved for developing nations at the World Trade Organization, a move analysts told The New York Times was intended to show China backing fairer trade at a time when the Trump administration was "weaponizing tariffs."

However, as The Times report detailed, these pledges are viewed by many experts as opportunistic and lacking in real substance. On climate, for example, experts say China's pledge to cut emissions by 7 to 10 percent falls far short of the 30 percent reduction needed to meet the goals of the Paris climate accord.

On trade, U.S. officials and analysts argue that China's move does not deflect from its long-standing objectionable practices, such as subsidizing its exports to the detriment of global competition. "China is trying to have its cake and eat it, too," Stephen Olson, a former U.S. trade negotiator, told The New York Times.

This complex interplay of military assertiveness and diplomatic maneuvering forms the backdrop for Mr. Xi's strategic push to secure a major concession from President Trump on Taiwan. By dangling the prospect of a mutually beneficial trade deal, the Chinese leader is creating an opportunity to press for his top geopolitical goal.

As the two global powers circle each other, the fate of Taiwan and the broader balance of power in the 21st century hang in the balance, caught between the transactional dealmaking of the Trump administration and the long-term, unyielding ambitions of Xi Jinping's China.