David Patel: Without Iran’s return to talks, U.S. and Israel may launch strikes

ERBIL (Kurdistan 24) – David Siddhartha Patel, a visiting scholar at the Middle East Initiative at Harvard Kennedy School, cautioned that escalating tensions over Iran’s nuclear program and Iraq’s internal politics could set the stage for military confrontation. In an interview with Kurdistan24, he stressed that if Tehran refuses to re-engage in negotiations, the United States—and possibly Israel—may resort to military action.

Patel explained that uncertainty surrounds Iraq’s proposed law regulating the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). “I don’t think anyone knows what will happen if the PMF law gets passed,” he said, noting that the legislation is essentially an amendment to a brief statute from nearly a decade ago.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and his supporters argue the law could place the PMF more firmly under the authority of the Iraqi state. Washington, however, interprets it differently. “The Trump administration sees this PMF law as creating an IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] in Iraq,” Patel remarked. From the U.S. perspective, the measure could cement Iran’s influence over Baghdad, though Patel stressed outcomes would depend on implementation.

Patel linked the redeployment of U.S. forces from bases in Baghdad and Anbar to broader policy toward Iran. The troop repositioning, he noted, coincided with the United Kingdom, France, and Germany activating the “snapback” sanctions mechanism at the United Nations over Iran’s nuclear activities.

“The United States, a lot of what it’s doing in Iraq is to send signals to Iran about what will happen if Iran doesn’t return to the negotiating table,” he said. That includes demands for Tehran to allow international inspections and account for hundreds of kilograms of enriched uranium.

If Iran fails to comply, Patel warned, “It’s very likely that the United States, perhaps with Israel or alone, will attack Iran again.” He added that such a scenario would put Iraqi militias in a difficult position as they campaign in November’s elections, forcing groups like Badr, Kataib Hezbollah, and Asaib Ahl al-Haq to decide whether to act in Iraq’s interest or defend Iran.

Patel highlighted the political stakes for Sudani and said: The U.S. views him as a pragmatic counterweight to Iranian influence, and his handling of the PMF issue could determine whether he receives an invitation to the White House.

“The PMF bill was a big part of it,” Patel said, adding that Washington also seeks restrictions on the PMF’s corporate arm, the Mohandas General Company, which is heavily involved in Iraq’s energy sector. U.S. firms, he explained, face obstacles in competing for contracts while the PMF-linked entity remains dominant.

For now, Patel concluded, Washington is watching closely. “I think he’s going to get an invitation to the White House in the next month or two,” he said, framing such a visit as both a political boost for Sudani and a test of Baghdad’s ability to balance its relations with Washington and Tehran.