U.S. Academic: PM Barzani’s Energy Agreements Signal Strategic Shift
“The United States also will try probably to put pressure on Baghdad to reach an agreement with Erbil,” he said. “The question is, will this be sufficient? " said Ghareeb.
By Ahora Qadi
ERBIL (Kurdistan24) – Professor Edmund Ghareeb of George Washington University said that the recent gas agreements signed under the leadership of Prime Minister Masrour Barzani signal a key moment in Kurdistan–U.S. relations.
“The US seems to be supportive of this move that was taken recently between the Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and the leaders of these oil companies,” Ghareeb said in an interview with Kurdistan24, referring to the historic energy deals signed in Washington.
He explained that Barzani’s high-level meetings with Congress, the State Department, the Pentagon, and other U.S. institutions show the growing political and economic relevance of the Kurdistan Region to U.S. policymakers.
U.S. May Pressure Baghdad, But Outcome Uncertain
While the agreements signal clear U.S. approval, Ghareeb suggested that Washington may exert pressure on Baghdad to reach an oil and revenue-sharing accord with Erbil.
“The United States also will try probably to put pressure on Baghdad to reach an agreement with Erbil,” he said. “The question is, will this be sufficient? A lot of it will depend on how events develop in the region as a whole and what happens between Iran and the United States.”
He noted that the U.S. has strategic interests in both Baghdad and the Kurdistan Region, and will pursue policies that reflect those interests at any given moment.
“This is an important test… We know how Washington will try to pressure governments—sometimes it's the withdrawal of support in certain areas, or even sanctions,” he added.
Limited U.S. Leverage Amid Global Shifts
Despite its influence, Ghareeb argued that the U.S. cannot dictate outcomes in every scenario, particularly as it navigates tensions with China and seeks deals with Russia.
“There are limitations even to the power and influence of the United States,” he said. “We are seeing the rise of a new multipolar world that will likely have a lot of impact on what happens in the world we are living in today.”
Constitutional Dispute Over Oil Authority
Ghareeb said the ongoing dispute between Baghdad and Erbil over the right to sign oil contracts is rooted in differing interpretations of Iraq’s post-2003 constitution—a document heavily influenced by the U.S. during the state-building period.
“Baghdad says this cannot be done because the constitution says Baghdad should be consulted,” he explained. “And this is where the U.S. could play a role in trying to resolve the differences.”
He cautioned, however, that U.S. positions may shift based on its strategic calculus.
“If the U.S. believes it has interests at stake, it will support a certain policy. But if it sees negative consequences, it may change that policy.”
Strong Historic Ties with Kurdistan, but Interests Remain the Driver
Professor Ghareeb acknowledged the long-standing ties between the United States and the Kurdish people, particularly in the fight for cultural and political rights.
“You hear from many senior American officials how the Kurds are great fighters—people who are fighting for their rights. But at the same time, we have also seen abandonment.”
He stressed that U.S. foreign policy, like most bilateral relationships, is ultimately dictated by strategic interests.
“Relations among countries are based on interests—political, economic, and strategic. If these exist, you’ll see support. If they don’t, you won’t.”
Opportunity for Broader Cooperation
Despite uncertainty, Ghareeb emphasized that the Barzani-led agreements reflect the potential for stronger long-term collaboration between Erbil and Washington in multiple sectors.
“There are areas where we can see a lot of cooperation—whether in infrastructure, investment, education, or economic development.”
He also noted Washington’s appreciation for the Kurdistan Region’s commitment to minority rights and religious freedom.
“These are important issues that are taken into account by many people here in the United States.”
Building Relations on Shared Interests
Ghareeb concluded by urging Kurdish leaders to deepen partnerships with regional and international actors through mutual benefit.
“It's good to reach arrangements that would benefit a lot of parties—not only one or two. Building relations with other countries and creating areas of common interest is the best way to maintain long-term and solid relationships.
