Turkey, Russia deal appears to put Syrian regime's Idlib offensive on hold: Analysts

Some analysts believe that Turkey and Russia's deal on Idlib may put a much-anticipated Syrian regime offensive in the province on hold.

ERBIL (Kurdistan 24) – Turkey and Russia have agreed on a “demilitarized zone” and joint patrols in Syria’s Idlib province with some analysts suggesting Turkeys diplomatic efforts have put a significant regime offensive in Idlib on hold.

The announcement was made during a joint a joint press conference between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan following a meeting in the Russian city of Sochi on Monday.

“In our meeting, we have decided to create by Oct. 15 of this year a demilitarized zone of 15 to 20 kilometers between the territories controlled by the militants and the territories controlled by the Syrian government,” Putin said.

Idlib, a strategic governorate that borders Turkey and hosts over two million people, is the last major territory still in militant hands.

A part of it is held by the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly known as the Nusra Front which the United States links to al-Qaida, while rebels backed by Turkey control another part.

Now, Russia and Turkey say they will work to remove the HTS from Idlib.

Putin said Moscow and Ankara hope to move militants, including from Nusra, from the area as well as heavy military equipment.

“We have agreed to organize patrols in the area to restore transit between Aleppo, Lattakia, Aleppo, and Hama,” the Russian President stated during the joint conference.

“Russia and Turkey have reinitiated their desire to fight terrorism in Syria in any of its forms.”

During his speech, Erdogan confirmed the agreement.

Turkey previously failed to convince Russia in a meeting in Iran on Sept. 7 to back a ceasefire in Idlib. Ankara was concerned that thousands of people from Idlib would flee to Turkey.

“The territory controlled by the Syrian opposition must be demilitarized, and armed opposition that is holding these territories will remain there, but together with Russia we will put out efforts in clearing those territories from radical elements,” Erdogan said.

“We will jointly take measures with Russia, and Turkey and Russia will coordinate their activities in patrolling those territories,” he added.

“Turkey will enhance its observations positions in the de-escalation zone, and prevent a humanitarian tragedy if hostilities break out in the Idlib province.”

Moreover, the Turkish president said the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) should be removed from the east of the Euphrates, which is under American control.

Some analysts believe that Turkey’s deal on Idlib may put a much-anticipated Syrian regime offensive in the province on hold.

According to Firas Maksad, the Washington-based director at The Arabia Foundation, “a large-scale military operation is now on hold and very unlikely—as announced by the Russian chief of staff [Putin].”

“The announced breakthrough underscores Putin’s interest in prioritizing a Russia-led diplomatic process that would consolidate its military gains in Syria. Turkey is essential to that, and a confrontation would have undermined its chances of success,” he told Kurdistan 24.

“More broadly, a Turkish-Russian confrontation in Syria would have pushed Turkey back toward NATO and its traditional allies in the West while Putin is interested in accentuating those differences,” Maksad added.

Timur Akhmetov, a researcher at the Russian International Affairs Council, told Kurdistan 24 that Russia raised tensions early on concerning the prospects of a military operation in Idlib and even signaled that Turkish interests might somehow be limited in the aftermath if Ankara failed to remove al-Qaida-linked militants from the region.

“But now, this strategy resulted in Turkey taking more responsibility for the situation in Idlib and the fight against terrorists there,” Akhmetov explained.

“For now, Turkey wants to dissolve them, it seems, but we understand that radical ideas may further contain moderate opposition and raise tensions between and inside the opposition.”

Editing by Karzan Sulaivany